Trump's threat to end a nuclear arms treaty between the United States and Russia means Putin: NPR

The US National Security Advisor, John Bolton, arrived in Moscow this weekend to murmur the weakened indignation after President Trump's announcement of the abandonment of the 1987 Control Treaty armaments, which marked the end of the cold war.

Mikhail Gorbachev, the former Soviet leader who signed the Mid-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with then President Ronald Reagan, described the decision as an "error" that had not occurred. a great spirit.

While some Russian lawmakers complained of "continuing to blackmail" and "undermine strategic stability," senior officials held fire before they could talk with Bolton.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explained that it was not productive to guess the ground coffee with regard to the Trump administration plans. And President Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that the United States had taken no official action to get out of the NIF treaty.

Abandoning the agreement, which prohibits the United States and Russia from possessing short and medium range land-based nuclear missiles, would not be a surprise, with each country accusing the other of breaking the pact for years . The United States said Russia had tested and deployed cruise missiles violating the treaty – an accusation denied by Moscow.

For the Kremlin, a withdrawal from the United States would help explain that the United States is an unreliable partner acting unilaterally without worrying about the interests of other countries. In Russia, in the general opinion, after the Cold War, Washington has not done enough to create a new comprehensive security agreement with Moscow.

In 2002, the administration of George W. Bush left the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, allowing the United States to develop a missile defense shield, despite Russia's objections. The end of the INF Treaty could put into question the future of the new START, an arms control agreement negotiated by the Obama administration.

Some observers in Moscow have said that Trump 's threat to leave the INF Treaty could be an open – mindedness for an administration that often puts everything in jeopardy before starting negotiations.

"If there is goodwill on both sides, including ours, then the treaty will probably be saved," Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Strategic Analysis, told state television. and technologies based in Moscow.

The world has changed a lot in the three decades that followed the signing of the treaty. So he certainly needs amendments, said Pukhov. The appearance of armed drones in the American arsenal, which Moscow considers a violation of the INF Treaty, is an example.

The elements of the US missile defense shield in Poland and Romania represent another threat to Russia. According to him, Moscow could be armed not only with defensive interceptor missiles to counter an attack, but also Tomahawk cruise missiles.

"Tomahawks with nuclear warheads could be loaded on missile sites in Romania and Poland as soon as the US leaves the INF treaty," tweeted Igor Korotchenko, editor-in-chief of the Russian magazine National Defense. Korotchenko said that the risk of a repeat of the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 – while the US and the Soviet Union were on the verge of nuclear war – will increase in Europe because the time of Reaction of Russian decision makers shortens the number of close missiles deployed The borders of Russia.

But the regrets expressed about the disappearance of the INF Treaty could include a rather large part of hyperbole.

Vladimir Frolov, a foreign policy analyst in Moscow, says the Kremlin has long undermined the treaty – but wanted the United States to tear it apart.

"This is one of the great diplomatic achievements of Vladimir Putin, which he has been trying for almost all his years as the leader of the country," Frolov wrote on the Russian press website Republic. "For the military-industrial complex and Russian security services, the INF Treaty has always been like a red bullfighter's cloak, symbolizing the defeat of the country during the Cold War."

According to Frolov, Bolton fell into a trap because Russia already has missiles at short and medium range, while the United States still need to develop such weapons and will face obstacles to deploy them in Europe.

Bolton lobbied for an exit from the anti-ballistic missile treaty while he was under the Bush administration and has long opposed the INF treaty.

He should meet Putin on Tuesday.