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UBS research shows that President Trump's tariffs on Chinese products have a significant effect on trade between the United States and China.
Analysts have examined US import data for $ 34 billion worth of products entering the first tranche of US tariffs on July 6.
And the decline was "clear and unambiguous":
"However, the slight rise in September data gives hope that the period of adjustment of these imports is now over," said UBS.
The same goes for the proceeds from the second $ 16 billion of additional property, which was implemented on August 23.
US imports of these products decreased by 32% in August and September. This figure is, however, overestimated as imports of these items surged in July.
"The decline from May's levels is a more modest but important figure of 20%," said UBS.
The results of the first round of tariffs raise an obvious question: what will happen to imports thanks to the additional US $ 200 billion tariffs implemented on September 24?
Due to the more recent schedule, UBS said it was too early to calculate the negative effects.
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Analysts noted that merchandise imports in these tranches "had sharply accelerated" in the three months prior to implementation.
However, all this can not be attributed to the customers' reserve before the tariffs come into effect. On the one hand, imports had already resumed in July, before the announcement of the third tranche.
The three-month increase is attributable to US imports of technological devices – mainly circuit boards and disk drives.
In reviewing key technology products, UBS stated that it was difficult to determine whether this increase was due to a pre-tariff increase or simply to an extension of the more general trend growth of these products observed in recent years.
"Nevertheless, we think that there is a positive increase in pre-tariff, but that this increase is small."
China's trade data to be released later today will provide an update of China's trade balance with the United States.
Despite the effects of the ongoing trade war, China's trade surplus with the United States has remained at record highs this year.
