Trump's trade war with China matters more to the market than elections


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"I'm glad Trump talked to Xi last week, I think the weather has improved a bit, but frankly, I think Trump said that because he knew the market would be happy he wanted the markets to pick up election, "said Greg Valliere, chief strategist at Horizon Investment. "Xi has said something critical this weekend to indicate that we are far from an agreement."

Mr. Xi spoke at the opening ceremony of China's International Import Expo, an event in which China hopes to show that it is sincere in terms of stimulating the imports and elevate its consumer on the world trade stage. But as trade tensions intensified with the United States, China's exports also increased, with the trade deficit with the United States reaching a record $ 40.2 billion in September.

"As globalization deepens, the practices of" law of the jungle "and" win-win-all "are an increasingly narrow path leading to a dead end," said Xi. "Inclusion and reciprocity, mutually beneficial and mutual benefits constitute the widened and correct path."

Xi also said China would support the reforms of the World Trade Organization and improve the protection of intellectual property, two ideas supported by the United States.

Trump, in her comments Friday, said that China's economy was suffering and that she wanted an agreement. But if it is not possible to reach one, the president said he was ready to move forward with additional tariffs of $ 267 billion. The Chinese stock market has slipped and Shanghai shares have lost about 20% over one year. The services sector data, released Monday morning, report a slowdown in orders. The Caixin / Markit Service Purchasing Managers Index fell to 50.8 in October, from 53.1 in September, the lowest level in more than a year.

"Nothing in Xi's speech shows that he is about to capitulate." I think what happened is that Xi and China have reached an agreement with [Treasury Secretary Steven] Mnuchin earlier this year to reduce the trade deficit. China would buy more goods, including agriculture and energy, and then Trump said we had not agreed. I think it has spoiled the relationship, "said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.[China] sees this as a prolonged struggle in the long run and because of that, they are trying to find ways to get around it. "

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