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A year ago, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Germans of Turkish origin not to vote for Chancellor Angela Merkel, describing her government coalition as enemies of Turkey.
On Thursday, Mr Erdogan arrives in Berlin for a full state visit, with military honors, a state banquet and a luncheon with Ms Merkel.
The rapprochement is striking, not coincidental: as Turkey suffers the aftermath of its worst economic crisis in 15 years, Erdogan has radically changed his tone and toned down his anti-Western rhetoric.
"We want to leave behind all the problems and create a warm environment between Turkey and Germany as before," he said earlier this week.
For Germany, the goal of this week's state visit to Berlin, officials said, is to normalize precarious relations with a major NATO partner on the south-eastern flank of Europe. For Turkey, indirectly, one of the goals is to repair relations with the United States, which imposed sanctions this summer because of the continued detention of a US pastor.
But the visit also pointed out that, like him or not, Europe must deal with Mr. Erdogan and the reality of a budding dictator at his border. Turkey's stability, both economic and geopolitical, remains a strategic priority for Germany and Europe.
It's a tough pill, and the realities surrounding the divergent trajectories of both leaders only make it more difficult to swallow.
Fifteen years in power, Mr. Erdogan, despite the economic difficulties of his country, is assured since his reelection in June to a new enlarged presidency that has conferred powers similar to those of the Sultan. Mrs. Merkel, now in her thirteenth year as Chancellor and increasingly weakened at home and abroad, is considered a lame duck.
In the absence of a common understanding of democratic necessities, the relationship is becoming more transactional, even as the two countries remain closely intertwined, with Germany having about 3 million people with roots. in Turkey.
What Erdogan needs is an economic boost, and Merkel needs Turkey to remain economically stable and the Turkish leader continues to stem the tide of refugees and migrants crossing his country. countries from war-torn countries. Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan – a problem that has become the Achilles' heel of the Chancellor.
Mr. Erdogan's economy is faltering. The Turkish lira has been under severe pressure – losing nearly 40% of its value this year – in a context of high inflation and soaring external debt. Private sector debt in Turkey is over $ 200 billion, and as the value of the lira declines, Turkish companies struggle to cope with payments.
If he does not come quite to Germany, Erdogan certainly seeks to reassure financial markets, improve business relations and gain political support.
This is a relatively steep climb for Mr. Erdogan. Relations with Germany reached last year with weeks of acrimonious shootings, while senior officials on both sides accused blackmail and hostage-taking of using Nazi tactics and encouraging terrorism. Turkish newspapers have labeled German foundations and journalists as spies.
Exasperated by Erdogan's hesitations and detentions of German citizens and threats to a list of his businesses in Turkey, Germany last summer announced a policy change that limited European economic aid to Turkey.
Analysts say the policy has worked well, although Turkish officials insist that the atmosphere has calmed because the German and Turkish elections are now outdated.
"This is the language that Erdogan understands – but you must be ready to speak it," said Cem Özdemir, a prominent Turkish-German MP and Green Party member, who criticized both the authoritarian policy of Mr. Erdogan and that of Germany. long-standing caution to counter it.
As Prime Minister, Erdogan has visited Germany several times in recent years. But the three-day visit this week is his first official visit to the presidency.
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, whose role is largely ceremonial, launched the invitation after Erdogan won the elections in June, prompting a wave of criticism.
Ms. Merkel will try to make the most of it, but she is obviously not attending the state dinner, even as the Chancery insists that the snob is not a violation of the protocol
Several German lawmakers said they would boycott proceedings by not attending the banquet and participating in demonstrations.
Bijan Djir-Sarai, the foreign policy spokesman of Free Democrats, said he could not dine with Mr Erdogan "while German citizens are sitting in Turkish prisons".
Several demonstrations are scheduled for Saturday when Erdogan will open the new central mosque of the Islamic-Turkish Religious Affairs Union, based in Cologne, or Ditib, one of Germany's largest Islamic organizations. It is funded by the Turkish government and is suspected of spreading pro-Erdogan propaganda.
The visit comes after a recent trip of confidence by Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak – Erdogan's close son-in-law and advisor – who sent the right messages on fiscal stability, rising interest rates and cutting expenses.
Cemil Ertem, Erdogan's chief economic adviser, predicted German visits to the daily Milliyet on Tuesday.
Turkish analysts have also noted a sudden improvement in German-Turkish relations over the past two months, including the release of Germans imprisoned under Erdogan's crackdown on political opponents and critics.
Maria Adebahr, spokeswoman for the German Foreign Ministry, said that another German citizen had been released on September 20, bringing to five the number of Germans arrested.
Turkey's relations with the United States have worsened after the arrest of US pastor Andrew Brunson and a dozen Turkish US and consular employees. President Trump announced sanctions against Turkey early this summer, precipitating the fall of the read.
Although it took its own line against Turkey, Germany expressed support for Ankara, fearing in part the effects of a Turkish economy on Europe.
Still, "Germany does not want and can not bail out Turkey," said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of Ankara on behalf of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a research organization.
There is little chance of revitalizing Turkey's accession process to EU membership. This requires the unanimity of the members of the European Union and the retreat of Turkey on democratic standards has gone too far for the European leaders to neglect it, he said.
But Germany can offer political support at a critical time. "Turkey is asking for support from Germany to fix its relations with the United States and fix its economy," Unluhisarcikli said.
Both sides also have an interest in continuing or strengthening an agreement under which Turkey has limited the flow of refugees across Turkey to Europe. The arrival of more than one million migrants in Germany since 2015 continues to reverberate politically.
Despite its differences with Turkey, Germany has no interest in seeing the Turkish economy slipping. German companies have also suffered from the slowdown in the Turkish economy and the decline of the lira.
"We have no interest in the situation in Turkey intensifying," said Özdemir, the Turkish-German legislator, who attended the banquet with Erdogan, who, as he says, , should "suffer him".
"You can not always choose your guests," he said. "The Erdogans and Putins and Trumps of this world are a reality and we must talk to them."
"But it's important that we take better advantage of this visit than beautiful pictures," he said. "Erdogan wants money. We must be clear about what we want: democracy, human rights, freedom of the press and no interference in the German-Turkish community in Germany.
Christopher F. Schuetze contributed to the report.
