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MANILA – Two years after Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte announced a divorce with his old ally, the United States, in exchange for privileged trade relations with China, he has little to do for it.
Mr. Duterte left Beijing in 2016 with $ 24 billion in loans and investment pledges from China for his ambitious infrastructure rehabilitation project a few weeks after declaring that the Philippines was treated unfair by Washington and would be better off with China.
But only a fraction of the support announced by China materialized, exposing Duterte criticism of which he is complicit in allowing the Chinese regime to threaten the sovereignty of the Philippines, and was abandoned by Beijing.
When Chinese leader Xi Jinping travels to the Philippines this week, Duterte will need Xi to put his money to work and help him justify his geopolitical concessions to a historical rival, according to Richard Heydarian, a defense analyst. of security based in Manila.
"Otherwise, we can certainly conclude that the rhetoric really is not good and that the Philippines was taken for a ride," Heydarian said.
"Duterte's naivety with China has been a strategic blow for China, no doubt."
Philippine Budget Secretary Benjamin Diokno said it would be unreasonable to expect all Chinese promises to be honored after only two years, but officials hoped Xi would step in after his visit. l & # 39; help.
"We are very optimistic that this will, their head of state, will put pressure on their bureaucracy to speed up the process," he said last week.
Duterte's "Build, Build, Build" infrastructure program, the centerpiece of its economic strategy, involves 75 flagship projects, about half of which are for Chinese loans, grants or investments.
However, according to public documents published by the Philippine government and published by Reuters, only three of them – two bridges and an irrigation facility with a combined value of $ 167 million – have already was started.
The rest, consisting of three rail projects, three highways and nine bridges, is at different levels of planning and budgeting, or is waiting for the Chinese government's approval for financing or appointing Chinese contractors.
According to Philippine statistical authorities, Chinese investment in the Philippines in the first half of this year was only $ 33 million, about 40 percent of that of the United States and about one-seventh that of Japan, following a similar trend. 'last year.
Trade between China and the Philippines has intensified considerably, but the data mainly suggest that China is favorable.
Chinese exports to the Philippines increased by 26% in the first nine months of 2017 compared to the same period last year, exceeding imports from Manila by 9.8%.
Net foreign direct investment from China, however, reached $ 181 million in the first eight months of this year, up from $ 28.8 million in 2017, according to the central bank of the Philippines.
Pressure required
Many ordinary Filipinos as well as international lawyers and diplomats are outraged by Duterte's refusal to raise before China the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) 2016 which ruled in favor of the Philippines and invalidated Beijing's claim on most of the South China Sea.
Instead, Duterte is seeking an agreement with China to jointly explore Reed Bank's offshore gas in the resource-rich and strategic waterway. Some lawmakers fear that this is tantamount to recognizing Beijing's claim of a site that, according to the PCA's decision, asserted that China had no sovereign right under international law.
Heydarian said that if Duterte was unable to show an economic dividend from his Chinese portfolio, it could weaken it before the mid-term elections of 2019, which could determine the success or failure of his presidency .
In order to have a chance to make his political agenda a reality, Duterte needs his allies to command a majority in Congress and the Senate to ensure the adoption of key legislation allowing the implementation of reforms aimed at generating to attract investment and create high quality jobs.
"If, after Xi Jinping's visit, China still has not made a decision to invest in the Philippines, if its militarization and recovery continue unabated, you will get a situation in which Duterte will be subject to extreme pressure, "he said.
"The opposition will use that to refer to Duterte and his allies as Chinese lackeys."
By Karen Lema and Martin Petty
