Insulin flasks and a syringe on a table(Photo: GETTY IMAGES)

According to a Stanford University study, the use of insulin is expected to increase by 20% by 2030 and many people who need it for type 2 diabetes are not going to get it. will not have access.

According to the study, 511 million adults are expected to have type 2 diabetes in 12 years, up from 406 million this year. More than half of these people come from China, India and the United States.

The study found that 79 million people worldwide would need insulin to treat the disease, but only 38 million will have access to it.

"These estimates suggest that current levels of insulin access are very inadequate compared to projected needs, particularly in Africa and Asia, and that additional efforts need to be made to address this health challenge. threatening, "said Sanjay Basu, senior author of the study and assistant. professor of medicine at Stanford, in a statement.

L & # 39; study was published Tuesday in the journal The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology.

He used data from the International Diabetes Federation and 14 studies, representing over 60% of people with type 2 diabetes worldwide.

The researchers urge governments to make insulin more accessible and affordable to strengthen access, particularly in Africa, where global access could multiply by 7 the use of HIV. insulin, said the researchers.

More: 5 facts about diabetes, the third most common health problem in America

The study also predicts that using a higher treatment target for A1C levels, a measure to track blood glucose levels, could reduce the number of people needing insulin.

The authors caution that the results are subject to several caveats. In particular, the estimates do not take into account how changes in diet and physical activity could affect the amount of insulin needed.

In a comment attached to the study, Hertzel Gerstein, an endocrinologist and professor at McMaster University in Canada, said the predictions made in the study should be viewed with caution.

"They are based on mathematical models that are in turn based on others
mathematical models, "said Gerstein. They are also based on various assumptions, including that the prevalence of type 2 diabetes will continue to increase in a linear fashion. "

The high costs represent a big problem of accessibility to insulin. In May, William T. Cefalu, scientific, medical and mission leader at the American Diabetes Association, testified before the Senate to discuss the price of insulin, which tripled between 2002 and 2013.

"Many people with diabetes are under increased load because of the high costs of insulin, which can have a negative impact on their lives and their health," said Cefalu in a statement released in May.

More: Soaring insulin prices: rapid change in insurance

Follow Brett Molina on Twitter: @ brettmolina23.

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