[ad_1]
9 pm Sunday, September 30, Japan time: Atsugi Naval Air Station has defined tropical cyclone condition 1-C (warning), with winds of 40 to 57 mph on the base. Other US bases in the Kanto Plain can expect a similar upgrade or even TCCOR 1-E if destructive winds of 58 mph or more are recorded.
The Japanese garrison of Japan (Camp Zama) has published a chronology of TCCOR on its official Facebook page. Given the proximity of the Kanto bases, the timeline could be similar to Yokota Air Base and Yokosuka Naval Base. Zama is waiting to enter TCCOR 1-E between 1 am and 4 am Monday.
DODEA schools in Zama will be closed on Monday. Yokosuka schools can expect a delay of two hours before the start of classes, according to the official Facebook pages of several schools.
18.30. Sunday, September 30, Japan time: The good news is that typhoon Trami began to follow the north-easterly direction rapidly, traveling the coast of Japan's Shikoku Island at a speed of 29 mph. The bad news is that the two US bases in the Tokyo area and Misawa Air Base should prepare for the destructive winds expected for the night from Sunday to Monday morning, even for brief periods.
Trami is expected to crisscross the center of Honshu, hitting southwestern Kyoto early Sunday night, and then traveling 70 km northwest of Yokota Air Base at midnight Sunday and 103 km southeast of Misawa at 7 o'clock. The two American bases of the Kanto and Misawa Plains are expected to be well in the 50-knot (58mph) destructive wind bands of Trami.
The American bases of the Kanto Plain remain in a state of preparation for the tropical cyclone 1.
Residents are requested to stay indoors and be out of the street between 21:00 and 21:00. Sunday and Monday 3h. The high-speed train service will be suspended and the rail service in the Tokyo metropolitan area should be closed at 20 hours. Sunday.
Here are the latest forecasts for the Yokosuka naval base, which forecasts sustained winds of 58 to 63 mph and gusts of 81 mph from Sunday to Monday.
Misawa does not expect destructive winds, but should hit Trami between 5 and 9 am, with winds of 40 to 57 mph and 2 to 4 inches of rain, according to the official Misawa Weather Facebook page. Flight.
14h Sunday 30 September, Japan time: Fleet Activities Yokosuka has joined all the other bases of the Kanto Plain in the state of preparation of the tropical cyclone. 1. A stormy watch is in effect until midnight and a wind warning from 18:00. Sunday at 20h Monday in Yokosuka, according to its weather portal. It has sustained winds of 58 to 63 mph and gusts of 86 mph during the night from Sunday to Monday.
In addition, East Japan Railways plans to suspend its rail service in the Tokyo metropolitan area, including the busy Yamanote circular line, from 8 pm. Sunday, according to NHK World-Japan.
1:30 pm Sunday, September 30, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo has defined the preparedness of tropical cyclones 1-R (recovery). Access through the two main gates at the base has been restored.
11:30 am on Sunday, September 30, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo has defined the preparedness of tropical cyclones 1-C (caution). There are winds between 40 and 57 mph at the Sasebo Naval Base and / or its satellite properties. The main door of Sasebo is secure. Meanwhile, Naval Airfield Atsugi and Camp Zama established TCCOR 1; destructive winds of 58 mph or more expected within 12 hours.
Sunday, September 30, Japan time: 10 hours Yokota Air Base led the first tropical cyclone readiness. The other bases of the plain of Kanto will certainly follow. Yokota's official Facebook page states that non-essential emergency personnel must stay within 21 hours. and 3 o'clock in the morning until the worst part of the storm passes. Updates will be provided as soon as they are available.
US bases in Okinawa entered TCCOR All Clear at 10 am local time. Staff are advised to exercise caution both on and off the base to leave room for work crews attempting to clean and repair Trami's damage, and there is a ton of them.
7:45 am Sunday, September 30, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo has set up tropical cyclone 1 preparedness for Typhoon Trami. There remains an important Category 2 typhoon, 110 mph winds and 132 mph gusts. While the Joint Typhoon Warning Center describes Sasebo as being outside the Trami fanfares at 50 knots (58 mph), destructive winds are nonetheless possible.
Trami is expected to pass 176 miles southeast of Sasebo at 10 am Sunday and 125 miles southeast of Iwakuni Marine Corps airbase five hours later; MCAS Iwakuni remains at TCCOR Storm Watch. This is the extended weather forecast for Sasebo.
The Kanto Plain bases stay in TCCOR 2 and should move to TCCOR 1 Sunday morning. Trami is expected to remain a major tropical storm, as it crosses central Japan about 90 miles northwest of Yokota Air Base on Sunday evening around midnight. Forecasts at the Yokosuka Naval Base predict destructive winds and gusts in the night from Sunday to Monday.
With respect to Okinawa, US bases remain in TCCOR 1-R, and the recovery period is likely to be very long; it is the worst storm on the island since Jelawat in 2012. The hundreds of thousands of people who remain, many cars were knocked down, dozens of cars were knocked down in car parks, trees , branches and power lines. it will take time for repairs to be made and power restored. Only critical mission and emergency personnel should report for work. non-essential, PLEASE stay in your neighborhoods until the TCCOR 4 clear or seasonal is issued.
3am Sunday, September 30, Japan time: US bases in Okinawa have been placed in the 1-R tropical cyclone readiness. Destructive winds are no longer present, but residents must stay indoors and outdoors until the clear season or TCCOR 4 season resumes, so rescuers and staff civil society can assess the damage and establish clear areas.
7 pm Saturday, September 29, Japan timeThis is the latest wind forecast schedule for US bases in Okinawa, courtesy of the flight of 18 Wing Kadena Air Base. The winds were blowing at a top speed of 89 mph and gusts of 105 mph were reported at 18:41, Weather Flight officials said.
-
Winds decrease below 58 mph and remain at 3 pm Sunday.
-
Winds decreasing below 40 mph mph: 9 hours Sunday.
US bases in Okinawa are still prepared for tropical cyclones 1-E.
18h Saturday, September 29, Japan time: The nearest approach point to Okinawa by Typhoon Trami is past. But perhaps the worst is yet to come for the island, as the southeastern quadrant of Trami has begun to assault Okinawa with the strongest and strongest wind bands expected for the next few hours.
In case you were wondering, yes, parts of southwestern Okinawa suffered some of Trami's eye, which is why the winds went out so suddenly and it seemed like the storm had taken end in the middle of the afternoon. Some have even reported seeing people shopping in convenience stores and other places near their homes.
For future reference: it's the worst thing to do. Although Trami's eye is wide enough and the winds have dissipated for a few hours, you have seen how quickly the winds have resumed, just as suddenly, in the opposite direction, and with more ferocity than when you have the wind. ; before. As suggested by the messages on the TV and the radio of the APN, you only have one chance.
At present, Okinawa remains well in the Trami wind band of 64 knots (75 mph) and 110 mph peak winds and gusts of 132 mph remain predictable. Be careful. Please.
US bases in Okinawa will remain in tropical cyclone readiness 1-E (emergency) at least until 3:00 am Sunday, possibly beyond. There is no fixed schedule for the issuance of TCCOR 1-R; it depends entirely on Trami and the speed with which he leaves the region.
And even when TCCOR 1-R is launched, especially with Okinawa's battle with Trami, this is not the time to leave the neighborhoods and declare everything. Civilian personnel and first responders must first deal with the damage and create safety zones. Without a doubt, there will be damage to buildings, flooding in low-lying areas, trees and branches on roads, slashed power lines, etc.
As for Trami leaving Okinawa, he should begin to follow quickly northeast to the main islands of Japan, until Monday morning.
Sasebo's remaining fleet activities TCCOR 2 and TCCOR 1 are expected to be released later on Saturday, although Sasebo's naval base appears to be outside the destructive wind bands planned by Trami. This is the last weather photo for Sasebo. The Marine Corps air base, Iwakuni, remains in Tervor's storm watch; it does not expect devastating winds, although gusts of up to 58 mph can be expected.
The US bases of the Kanto Plain are also in TCCOR 2, the latter to be installed later in the evening and the Tokyo area could receive a high dose of destructive winds starting at 22 hours. Sunday. Trami is expected to be 67 miles northwest of Yokota Air Base, 78 miles northwest of Camp Zama and Atsugi Naval Air Station and 100 miles northwest of the Naval Naval Base. Yokosuka between 23 hours. and Sunday at midnight. This is the latest weather forecast for Yokosuka.
Saturday, September 29, 6:30 am, Japan time: Okinawa has entered what could be a long period of tropical cyclone readiness 1-E due to typhoon Trami, an equivalent Category 2 storm approaching the island from the southwest.
According to forecasts from Kadena Air Force Base, southeast winds would reach 80 mph with gusts to 80 mph Saturday morning at 110 mph with gusts to 130 in the afternoon.
The latest wind forecast schedule required the damaging winds to drop around 3 am Sunday, but that depends entirely on the typhoon. There is no defined period for the duration of TCCOR 1-E or when TCCOR 1-R (recovery) will follow. The first responders will evaluate the damage and create safety zones. There may be floods, damage to buildings, fallen trees and power lines. Stay indoors until the TCCOR 4 season resumes.
Trami is scheduled to advance rapidly and move rapidly northeastward, 186 km southeast of Sasebo Naval Base at four o'clock Sunday and 74 miles northwest of Yokota Air Base.
The bases of Sasebo, Iwakuni and Kanto Plain remain at TCCOR 3; expect Sasebo and Iwakuni to switch to TCCOR 2 in the middle of the morning and Kanto in the late afternoon. Here are the weather forecasts for the Yokosuka naval base and for Sasebo.
Saturday, September 29 at 16:00, Japan time: US bases in Okinawa have entered the 1-E (emergency) readiness of the tropical cyclone. Sustained winds of 58 mph and / or gusts of 69 mph occur at Okinawa bases. Any outdoor activity is prohibited until the TCCOR 4 is clear or seasonal.
Midnight Friday, September 28, Japan time: Peak wind forecasts for Okinawa have been very low, according to the latest update from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
At 2100, Trami was 193 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, moving from north-northwest at 9 mph and stable at sustained winds of 104 mph and gusts of 127 mph. Trami is expected to pass 23 miles west of Kadena at 3 pm Saturday with the same winds in the center of the storm.
At midnight, US bases in Okinawa remained in the state of preparation of tropical cyclones 1-C (caution). Instant readings of sustained winds of 58 mph or gusts of 69 mph are taken on the island, the recommendation to go TCCOR 1-E (emergency) is given, any outdoor activity is prohibited and staff restricted to neighborhoods.
A slight change in the forecast schedule of the Okinawa winds has already been reported: winds that fall below 58 mph are now forecast at 3:00 am Sunday and below 40 mph at 9:00 am Sunday.
The Sasebo Naval Base, the Marine Corps Air Base and the Iwakuni American Bases in the Kanto Plain are still in TCCOR 3, and TCCOR 2 is expected to be improved in the morning in Southwest Japan. and afternoon in the Tokyo area.
The sustained winds are expected to be between 92 and 110 mph while Trami is heading rapidly northeast, passing 185 miles southeast of Sasebo at 10 am Sunday, 133 miles southeast of Iwakuni at five o'clock later and
Sasebo and Iwakuni could be safe outside Trami destructive wind bands; the same can not be said for the Tokyo region.
18.30. Friday, September 28, Japan time: Here's the latest wind forecast schedule for US bases in Okinawa, courtesy of the 18 Wing Kadena Air Base flight:
-
Beginning of sustained winds of 58 mph = midnight Friday.
-
Strong winds of 110 mph and gust of 132 mph = 3 pm Saturday.
-
Winds decrease below 58 mph and are maintained at 2 pm Sunday.
-
Winds decreasing below 40 mph sustained = 6 hours on Sunday.
US bases on Okinawa remain in the state of preparation of tropical cyclones 1-C (caution). Note that sustained winds of 58 mph or more meet the criteria for upgrading to TCCOR 1-E (Emergency), during which any outside activity is prohibited, and nonessential personnel are restricted to quarters on or off base.
18h Friday, September 28, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo, Iwakuni Marine Corps Air Base and US Kanto Plain Bases announced readiness 3 for the tropical cyclone prior to the arrival / passage of Typhoon Trami. Destructive winds of 58 mph or more are possible within 48 hours.
For now, all eyes are on Okinawa – US bases remain in TCCOR 1-C – and heavy things, high winds and torrential rains, should start seriously during the night from Friday to Saturday and continue until the end. small hours of Sunday, by quick release behind her.
A wind forecast calendar will be posted as soon as it is available, but there should not be any big changes from the previous ones.
While Sasebo and Iwakuni are preparing for the effects of Trami, the latest forecast track of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center shows that both bases can be spared by Trami's greatest fury.
It is expected that Trami will pass 186 miles southeast of Sasebo at 10 am Sunday and 132 kilometers southeast of Iwakuni five hours later – still in a furious punch, sustained winds at 115 mph and gusts to 144 mph. But it's in the center of the storm. Sasebo and Iwakuni both appear as if they are each outside the 64 knot (75 mph) and 50 knot (58 mph) wind bands of Trami.
Here are Sasebo's long-term forecasts. Iwakuni's forecast calls for winds of 35 mph and gusts between 52 and 58 mph while Trami passes.
The same may not apply to the Tokyo area; Trami's forecast trajectory is getting closer and closer … to US bases in the Kanto Plain. Trami is expected to pass 78 km northwest of Yokota Air Base, 87 km northwest of Atsugi Naval Air Station and Camp Zama, and 110 km northwest of Yokosuka Naval Base in Yokosuka. 23 h. Sunday. Here are Yokosuka's long-range forecasts.
Schools serving the Atsugi communities of Camp Zama-NAF are closed Monday, said officials of DODEA and Zama garrison to Stripes. Other schools could do the same; stay tuned to the official Facebook pages of your database.
Noon Friday, September 28, Japan time: US bases in Okinawa have entered tropical cyclone 1-C (caution). Sustained winds of 40 mph or more occur on an island-wide basis. Any non-essential activity is suspended. All outlets, commissioners, post offices will be closed and all non-essential staff returned from work at home.
11:45 Friday, September 28, Japan time: Fleet Activities Sasebo led tropical cyclone 3 readiness for the Sasebo naval base and its satellite properties, according to the CFAS Facebook page. Marine Corps Iwakuni Air Base remains in TCCOR 4, but is also planning to upgrade to TCCOR 3 at 3 pm Friday.
Trami is expected to pass 182 miles southeast of Sasebo at 11 am Sunday; CFAS can expect sustained winds of 46 to 52 mph and gusts to 69 mph while Trami roars late Sunday morning. Trami should then move 125 miles southeast of Iwakuni at 15 hours. Sunday. The Iwakuni forecast predicts sustained winds of 35 mph and gusts of 52 to 58 mph on Sunday afternoon.
The US bases of the Kanto Plain remain in TCCOR 4 and can expect an upgrade to TCCOR 3 on Friday afternoon. The storm is expected to be 87 km northwest of Yokota Air Base, 95 km northwest of Atsugi Naval Air Station and Camp Zama and 117 km northwest of Yokosuka Naval Base. at 11 pm Sunday. The Yokosuka can expect southwest winds of 58 to 25 km / h with gusts of 30 km / h overnight on Sunday.
As for Okinawa, she is still waiting for the other shoe for TCCOR 1-C upgrade. At 1145, US bases remained at TCCOR 1 and Trami was expected to move 13 miles west of Kadena Air Base at 1700 hours. Saturday. Strong winds and heavy rain are forecast throughout Saturday.
Friday, September 28 at 7:00 am Japan time: The winds are already strong on Okinawa, with scattered showers. Typhoon Trami began following the northwest, albeit slowly – and the worst is yet to come on Saturday, with gusts reaching 144 mph for the weekend. (And rain, a lot of rain.)
Dozens of flights serving the Naha airport were canceled on Friday, with safer scores on Saturday and early Sunday. Thousands, if not tens of thousands of passengers should be affected.
US bases in Okinawa remain in tropical cyclone readiness 1. The AFN radio's AM and FM bands are broadcast simultaneously and will provide late-breaking news until Trami disappears. Now is the time to finish preparing for the storm before the release of TCCOR 1-C on Friday morning.
Trami is expected to pass 16 miles west of Kadena Air Force Base at 1700 hours. Saturday, racing winds of 115 mph and gusts up to 144 mph, making it a beast equivalent to category 3. Trami is probably the worst typhoon to hit Okinawa in the last six years, the last being Jelawat in September 2012.
Here is the latest wind forecast timeline for Okinawa US bases, courtesy of Kadena's 18th Weather Squadron:
-
Beginning of sustained winds of 40 mph or more = 9 am Friday.
-
Sustained sustained winds of 58 mph or more = midnight Friday.
-
Maximum sustained winds of 110 mph and gusts of 132 mph = 17 h Saturday.
-
Winds decreasing below 58 mph sustained = midnight Saturday.
-
Winds decreasing below 40 mph sustained = 6 hours on Sunday.
Note that sustained winds of 40 mph or more meet the TCCOR 1-C (warning) and TCCOR 1-E criteria maintained at 58 mph, and are likely to significantly exceed 40 or 58 mi. / h.
Once Trami draws the curve around Okinawa, he should begin to quickly follow the southern shores of Kyushu and Honshu, through the center of Honshu, north of Tokyo and the Pacific Northwest.
Sasebo Naval Base and Iwakuni Marine Corps Air Base remain in TCCOR 4; expect upgrades to TCCOR 3 on Friday morning. Trami is expected to pass 180 miles southeast of Sasebo on Sunday at noon and 125 miles southeast of Iwakuni five hours later.
Sasebo's long-range forecasts predict east-northeast winds between 23 and 29 mph with gusts of 46 mph on Sunday, moving north to northeast between 40 and 46 mi / h with gusts of 69 mph in the middle of the morning. with gusts of 81 mph in the middle of the day and decreasing from there. Iwakuni expects sustained winds of 40 mph and gusts of 58 mph on Sunday afternoon.
Trami is expected to pass 100 miles northwest of Yokota Air Base, 108 miles northwest of Atsugi Naval Air Station and Zama Camp and 130 miles northwest of Yokosuka Naval Base between Monday and Sunday. Monday. All these bases remain in TCCOR 4, with TCCOR 3 upgrades possible in the afternoon. And everything could be inside Trami's 50-knot wind band as she passes.
Yokosuka's long-range forecast predicts southerly winds of 35 to 40 mph with gusts to 58 mph in the early evening, rising from the southeast between 46 and 52 mph in gusts to 75 mph. at the end of the evening, increasing to in Monday morning.
Misawa can expect sustained winds of 40 mph and gusts of 58 mph while Trami spends 74 miles southeast at 9:00 am Monday. No upgrade from TCCOR to Misawa at the moment.
20:09 Thursday, September 27, Japan time: US bases in Okinawa have entered tropical cyclone readiness 1. Destructive winds of 58 mph or more are expected within 12 hours.
Thursday, September 27, Japan time: Here's the latest wind forecast schedule for US bases in Okinawa, courtesy of the 18 Wing Kadena Air Base flight:
-
Beginning of sustained winds of 40 mph = 9 am Friday.
-
Beginning of sustained winds of 58 mph = midnight Friday.
-
110 mph strong winds and 132 mph winds = 2 pm Saturday.
-
Winds decrease below 58 mph = midnight Saturday.
-
Winds decreasing below 40 mph = 6 hours on Sunday.
US bases on Okinawa remain in tropical cyclone readiness 2. Note that sustained winds of 40 mph meet TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58 mph airspeed upgrade criteria. TCCOR 1-E (emergency).
6:15 pm Thursday, September 27, Japan time: With each new update of the Typhoon Common Warning Center, the Typhoon Trami forecast trail is getting closer takes to Kadena Air Force Base, now watch almost a direct hit at 2 pm Saturday.
If Trami continues to move as planned, it should pass just 10 miles west of Kadena, still cluttered by sustained winds of 120 km / h and gusts of 150 km / h in the center as it passes. The American bases of Okinawa remain in a state of preparation for tropical cyclone 2; expect an upgrade to this early Friday morning, with caution and the TCCOR emergency almost certain.
An updated wind forecast schedule will be released as soon as it is available, but it will probably not be very different from previous reports.
The US Embassy in Tokyo has issued a weather alert for all regions of Japan, from Saturday to Monday, from Okinawa to Hokkaido.
TCCOR's display board includes several newcomers: Iwakuni Air Base Marine Corps and all major bases of the Kanto Plain joined the TCCOR show, issuing TCCOR 4 earlier on Thursday afternoon. Destructive winds of 58 mph or more are possible within 72 hours.
And with reason. Trami should maintain a strength equivalent to that of category 2, because it accelerates fairly quickly on the main islands of Japan and picks up speed.
It will pass 185 km southeast of Sasebo naval base Sunday at 9 am, 131 miles southeast of Iwakuni, and then cross the center of Honshu passing 125 km northwest of the base. Yokota. sustained winds and gusts of 144 mph in the center. Even the Misawa Air Base is not out of the woods; Trami is expected to pass 83 miles southeast of this country at 7:00 am Monday as a powerful tropical storm.
3:20 pm Thursday, September 27, Japan time: US bases in Okinawa have entered tropical cyclone readiness. 2. Destructive winds of 58 mph or more are expected within 24 hours.
14h Thursday, September 27, Japan time: It's not a joke, guys. And the forecast trajectory of Typhoon Trami is getting closer and closer to the Kadena airbase, with a TCCOR 1-E lockout period that is quite long as a result.
Trami continues to move very slowly, but has started to turn northwest and, as a lion is about to leap, it curves around Okinawa, the island being well inside the forecast of 64 knots (75 mph) of Trami. -mph) wind bands. And he will not really start to pick up speed before he leaves the Okinawa region.
Trami is expected to pass 29 miles west-northwest of Kadena at 14 hours. Saturday, sustained winds of 121 mph and gusts of 150 mph in the center. The center of the storm will miss the island, but it is not a saving grace; the right quarter and right back quarter-circle, the worst of the lot, should pass right on the island, with all its heavy rains and windy fury.
Here is the latest wind forecast timeline for Okinawa US bases, courtesy of 18 Wing Weather Flight:
-
Beginning of sustained winds of 40 mph = 6 hours Friday.
-
Beginning of sustained winds of 58 mph = midnight Friday.
-
110 mph strong winds and 132 mph gusts for Kadena = 2 pm Saturday (104 mph sustained winds and 127 mph gusts in the northern part of the island at 6 pm).
-
Winds decreasing below 58 mph = 2:00 on Sunday.
-
Winds decreasing below 40 mph = 6 h Sunday.
US bases remain in the state of readiness for tropical cyclones 3. Expect an upgrade from TCCOR 2 late Thursday night and TCCOR 1 early Friday morning. Note that sustained winds of 40 mph meet the criteria for TCCOR 1-C (caution) and 58 mph for TCCOR 1-E (emergency).
From there, Trami is expected to hang northeasterly and pass 168 miles southeast of Sasebo Naval Base. Four hours later, Trami strikes ninety kilometers southeast of Iwakuni, the Marine Corps airbase, still in shock, but the two bases could remain outside the area of destructive winds .
Fleet Activities Sasebo led TCCOR 4 for Sasebo and its satellite properties. Iwakuni should follow shortly.
Sunday is also expected to be wet and gusting in the Kanto Plain, although Trami is expected to make a wide passage, 103 miles northwest of Yokota Air Base at 11 pm. Sunday. But Trami will continue to hit hard as he approaches Misawa Air Force Base, 56 km southeast at 3 am on Monday, with sustained winds at 86 mph and bursts at 104 mph. h. Totally possible to see TCCOR 1-E up there.
7:45 am on Thursday, September 27, Japan time: This is the latest wind forecast schedule for US bases in Okinawa for Typhoon Trami, courtesy of the 18 Wing Kadena Air Base flight:
-
Beginning of sustained winds of 40 mph = 6 hours Friday.
-
Beginning of sustained winds of 58 mph = midnight Friday.
-
Maximum winds sustained at 104 mph and gusting to 127 mph = 15 h. Saturday.
-
Winds decrease below 58 mph and are maintained at 2 pm Sunday.
-
Winds decreasing below 40 mph sustained = 6 hours on Sunday.
Remarque: les vents soufflés à 40 mi / h satisfont aux critères de mise à niveau vers TCCOR 1-C (avertissement), les vents soutenus à 58 mi / h TCCOR 1-E (urgence).
6h45 jeudi 27 septembre, heure du Japon: Il n'y a pas que la base navale de Sasebo et la base aérienne du Corps des Marines d'Iwakuni qui surveillent le typhon Trami. Elle pourrait conserver une intensité suffisante pour passer au sud de la base même de Misawa, en tant que tempête équivalente à la catégorie 2.
Trami devrait continuer à rouler à 63 milles à l'ouest-nord-ouest de la base aérienne de Kadena, à Okinawa, vers 18 heures. Samedi, soufflant toujours des vents soutenus de 121 mi / h et des rafales de 150 mi / h au centre alors qu'il rugissait.
Les bases américaines d’Okinawa restent dans l’état de préparation du cyclone tropical. 3. Attendez-vous à une mise à niveau vers ce jeudi vers la fin de l’après-midi ou en début de soirée.
En contournant le virage et en quittant Okinawa, Trami devrait avancer rapidement et se diriger rapidement vers le nord-est, traversant 152 milles au sud-est de Sasebo dimanche à 11 heures et 102 milles au sud-est d'Iwakuni. -phph rafales.
Misawa est loin d'être hors du bois. Trami devrait passer à 60 miles au sud-est de Misawa à 8h00 lundi. JTWC prévoit que Trami sera toujours en train de faire des vents soutenus de 104-mph, avec Misawa juste à l'intérieur des bandes de vent de 50 nœuds de Trami. Critères qui répondent à une éventuelle mise à niveau vers TCCOR 1-E, rare pour Misawa, mais cela s'est produit deux fois au cours de l'été 2016.
12h40 jeudi 27 septembre, heure du Japon: Voici le dernier calendrier de prévision des vents pour les bases américaines d'Okinawa pour le typhon Trami, gracieuseté du vol de la 18e Escadre de la base aérienne de Kadena:
-
Début des vents soutenus de 40 mi / h = 3 h vendredi.
-
Début de vents soutenus de 58 mi / h = 21 h Vendredi.
- Vents maximums soutenus à 104 mi / h et rafales à 127 mi / h = 15 h. Samedi.
-
Vents diminuant en dessous de 58 mi / h soutenus = minuit samedi.
-
Vents diminuant en dessous de 40 mi / h soutenus = 9 heures le dimanche.
Les bases américaines restent dans l'état de préparation du cyclone tropical. 3. S'attendre à ce que ce système passe à TCCOR 2 jeudi soir. Un rappel: les vents soutenus de 40 mi / h répondent aux critères de mise à niveau à TCCOR 1-C (prudence), vents soutenus de 58 mi / h TCCOR 1-E (urgence).
23h45 Mercredi 26 septembre, heure du Japon: Le typhon Trami s'est affaibli pour devenir équivalent à la catégorie 2 et devrait diminuer à des vents soutenus de 98 mi / h pour la majeure partie de jeudi.
Mais … comme le voudrait la chance d'Okinawa … Trami devrait se réintégrer dans une tempête équivalente à la catégorie 3 au moment où elle se replie autour de l'île et se rapproche le plus de la base aérienne de Kadena. après-midi samedi.
Les bases américaines restent dans l'état de préparation du cyclone troppical 3; attendez-vous à une mise à jour jeudi soir. Un calendrier actualisé des prévisions de vent devrait être affiché sous peu.
Si Trami continue d'avancer comme prévu, sa très lente rampe vers le nord devrait s'achever jeudi en milieu de matinée – elle se déplace actuellement vers le nord à seulement 3 mi / h – et s'accélérer à l'approche du week-end.
Trami devrait grimper à 28 milles à l'ouest-nord-ouest de Kadena à 15 heures. Samedi, les vents soutenus à une vitesse de 87 km / h et les rafales de 150 km / h au centre, alors que Okinawa se trouve à l’intérieur de la bande de vent de 64 nœuds de Trami et bien au-dessus de sa bande de vent de 50 nœuds. Vents destructeurs, bref.
Après Okinawa, Trami devrait suivre rapidement au nord-est, 145 km au sud-sud-est de la base navale de Sasebo à 11 heures lundi et 97 milles au sud-sud de la base aérienne du corps des Marines Iwakuni cinq heures plus tard. centre.
Pour l'instant, Sasebo apparaît comme s'il pouvait être épargné par des vents destructeurs; peut-être pas tellement Iwakuni, qui semble pouvoir reposer au bord des bandes de 50 nœuds.
Trami devrait rester une tempête équivalente à la catégorie 2 car elle passe à 116 km au nord-nord-ouest de la base aérienne de Yokota à 2 h mardi et à 11 h mardi, une tempête tropicale importante.
19h Mercredi 26 septembre, heure du Japon: Voici le dernier calendrier des prévisions de vent pour les bases américaines à Okinawa pour le typhon Trami, gracieuseté du vol de la 18e Escadre de la base aérienne de Kadena:
-
Début de vents soutenus de 40 mi / h = 6 heures le vendredi.
-
Début de vents soutenus de 58 mi / h = 21 h Vendredi.
- Vents de 104 km / h et vents soutenus de 127 mi / h = samedi midi.
-
Les vents diminuent en dessous de 58 mph = minuit samedi.
-
Les vents diminuent en dessous de 40 mph = dimanche midi.
Les bases américaines restent dans l'état de préparation des cyclones tropicaux 3. Un rappel, des vents soutenus de 40 mi / h respectent les critères de mise à niveau vers TCCOR 1-C (prudence) et 58 mi / h vers TCCOR 1-E (urgence).
18h30. Wednesday, September 26, Japan time: Le typhon Trami doit encore se rapprocher d'Okinawa, mais la base navale de Sasebo et la base aérienne du Corps des Marines d'Iwakuni se trouvent déjà au nord-est, ce qui pourrait permettre une visite rapide de Trami au début de la semaine prochaine.
Pendant ce temps, les bases américaines à Okinawa restent dans l’état de préparation du cyclone tropical. 3. Jetez un coup d’œil aux mises à jour ci-dessous pour connaître la chronologie des prévisions de vent pour Okinawa. Dans l’état actuel des choses, les critères de vent pour TCCOR 1-C pourraient arriver d’ici vendredi midi et TCCOR 1-E tôt samedi matin, bien que cela puisse changer en fonction de l’intensité et de la vitesse de la piste.
Si Trami continue d'avancer comme prévu, il devrait passer à 16 km à l'ouest-nord-ouest de la base aérienne de Kadena à 16h. Samedi, un peu plus tôt que prévu, mais souffre toujours de vents soutenus à 127 mi / h et de rafales à 155 mi / h au centre. Okinawa devrait être bien dans les bandes de vent destructives de 64 nœuds (75 mph) et 50 nœuds (58 mph) de Trami et pendant un certain temps, il semblerait.
On prévoit alors que Trami achemine rapidement vers le nord-est, passant à 155 milles au sud-est de Sasebo et à 104 milles au sud-est d'Iwakuni. Difficile de dire à ce stade quel effet cela aurait sur les deux bases. PST va garder un œil dessus.
17h15 Mercredi 26 septembre, heure du Japon: Voici le calendrier initial des prévisions de vent pour les bases américaines d’Okinawa pour le typhon Trami, gracieuseté du vol météorologique de la 18e Escadre de la base aérienne de Kadena.
-
Début des vents soutenus de 40 mi / h = vendredi midi.
-
Début de vents destructifs soutenus de 58 mi / h = 3 heures le samedi.
- Le pic des vents de 92 mi / h et des rafales de 115 mi / h = 20 h Samedi.
-
Vents diminuant en dessous de 58 mph soutenus = 6h00 le dimanche.
-
Les vents diminuent en dessous de 40 mi / h et sont soutenus = dimanche midi.
Les forces américaines restent dans un état de préparation du cyclone tropical. 3. Il convient de noter que les vents soutenus à 40 mi / h répondent aux critères du TCCOR 1-C et du TCCOR 1 à E à 58 mi / h.
16h12 Mercredi 26 septembre, heure du Japon: Du fait de l’approche du typhon Trami, les bases américaines d’Okinawa sont entrées dans un état de préparation au cyclone tropical. Des vents destructeurs de 58 mph ou plus sont possibles dans les 48 heures.
Wednesday, September 26, Japan time: Typhoon Trami continues its slow march north, but remains on the track planned to give Okinawa a rainy and rainy weekend.
US bases on Okinawa remain in the state of preparation for seasonal tropical cyclones 4. Expect an upgrade from TCCOR 3 on Thursday morning, with damaging winds expected to hit Okinawa on Saturday morning.
If Trami continues on its current trajectory, it is expected to continue north on Wednesday evening, then gain speed to the northwest, maintaining sustained winds between 115 and 121 miles at the time.
Les prévisions météorologiques de la base aérienne de Kadena prévoient des vents soutenus de 40 mi / h pour commencer vers midi vendredi et des vents destructeurs de 58 mi / h ou plus vers 9 h samedi.
A brief overview of the TCCORs and their meanings:
-
TCCOR 4 = Vents destructifs de 58 mph ou plus possible dans les 72 heures.
-
TCCOR 3 = dans les 48 heures.
-
TCCOR 2 = dans les 24 heures.
-
TCCOR 1 = dans les 12 heures. Students sent back from school and sent home.
-
TCCOR 1-C = vents de 40 mi / h ou plus. Make your way inside and stay there until everything is clear. The facilities on the base will shut down and the non-essential people sent home.
-
TCCOR 1-E = vents de 58 mph ou plus. Any outdoor activity prohibited.
-
TCCOR 1-R (récupération) = les vents destructeurs ne se produisent plus. Restez à l'intérieur pendant que le personnel civil et les premiers intervenants évaluent les dégâts et sécurisent les choses.
-
TCCOR SW (Surveillance de tempête) = La tempête s’éloigne, mais elle est encore suffisamment proche pour nécessiter le retour à une TCCOR élevée si des vents destructeurs se lèvent à nouveau.
Aside from the fact that the USFJ 15-4001 instruction requires people to stay indoors during peak periods, it's just a smart and safe thing to do. You're only lucky.
Simply because your tower or duplex window allows you to see locals come and go, even if destructive winds occur, it does not mean you can do it safely. The Japanese are used to it. Especially those localities where hurricanes do not interfere, most Americans are not used to it.
Prepare for the storm while waiting, while you still have time. If you live in a low-lying area likely to be flooded, see if you can arrange with a friend in a higher place.
Yes, there is every chance that the storm may pass more west of Okinawa than the forecasts, caution and emergency TCCORs might not be necessary, and all preparations are vain. But we do not know it. Better to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. You're only lucky.
Wednesday, September 26, Japan time: Trami has lost its super-typhoon status, but remains a category 4 storm, as it moves slowly north and looks like a lion preparing to go to Okinawa this weekend.
At 3 am Trami was 434 miles south of Kadena Air Base, crawling north at only 3 mph, bringing sustained winds of 132 mph and gusts of 161 mph to center.
If Trami continues to move as planned, it should continue to decrease as it slowly moves north, resume a northwest track, pass between Okinawa and Miyako islands, and then turn to north-east around Okinawa.
The Typhoon Common Warning Center projects that Trami will pass 58 miles west-northwest of Kadena at 2200 hours Saturday in the center and with Okinawa, winds blowing at 115 mph and gusts at 144 mi / h are well beyond the destructive wind bands of Tren (64 mph) and 50 knots (58 mph).
US bases on Okinawa remain in the state of preparation for seasonal tropical cyclones 4. Expect the situation to change by Thursday morning, assuming Trami continues to move as planned.
The effects of Trami should be felt on Okinawa for a long time, starting Thursday night. Kadena's long-range forecasts show winds of 25 mph and gusts of 40 mph, with showers and thunderstorms Thursday night.
Winds are expected to move southeast on Friday, with 25 mph winds and 40 mph gusts in the morning, increasing to 40 mph with sustained winds and gusts to 58 mph.
Saturday is expected to see sustained winds of 57 mph and gusts of 72 mph in the morning, increasing to 97 mph from sustained winds and bursts of 115 mph in the afternoon and the afternoon. evening, decreasing to 80 mph and decreasing from there.
The model's directions are finally on track, as are the GFS and CMC forecastsets.
Pour dire le moins, cette tempête n'est pas une blague. If you have not done it yet, it's time. Faites en sorte que le commissariat fonctionne pour les aliments non périssables, qu'il y ait beaucoup d'eau potable, des couches et des lingettes pour les jeunes et de la nourriture pour les amis à fourrure. Take these board games out of the closet and schedule them at the gas station to refuel and at the ATM for at least three days of change in the event of a long-term power outage.
Once on the track to the northeast of Okinawa, Trami was able to travel southeast of Kyushu early Monday morning, passing 161 miles south-southeast of Sasebo at 3am. Restez à l'écoute.
Minuit mardi 25 septembre, heure du Japon: Peu de changements aux rapports précédents. Trami clings to super-typhoon status equivalent to category 4 and could weaken in the morning.
The latest forecast indicates that Trami is 77 miles northwest of Kadena Air Base at midnight Saturday, still in the center with sustained winds of 121 mph and gusts of 150 mph. Strong winds and rains can last between 9am Saturday and 9am Sunday in Okinawa. Very few changes to model solutions and prediction sets.
17:30. Tuesday, September 25, Japan time: With every update of the Typhoon Warning Center, it looks like Trami could get closer to Okinawa on Saturday night.
The latest JTWC forecast trail predicts the Super Typhoon Trami to lose some of its punch, but it still has sustained winds of 120 km / h and gusts of 150 km / h in the center. Samedi.
Unfortunately, this places Okinawa within the expected destructive wind bands of 64 knots (75 mph) and 50 knots (58 mph) expected by Trami and for a time, almost all day Saturday and early Sunday morning.
Model guidance is getting along better, with only a few Western aberrations. According to a JTWC official, the distribution among all the model's solutions is about 750 miles, but these extreme trends are gradually moving eastward and could end up with the majority.
The GFS forecast set always depicts a northeastern track, and even the entire CMC finally follows. The track of the Taiwan Central Meteorological Office shows the same thing.
US bases on Okinawa remain in the state of preparation for seasonal tropical cyclones 4. No upgrades are imminent; it would probably happen on Thursday, as Trami gets closer and destructive winds are expected over the weekend.
Noon on Tuesday, September 25, Japan time: For newcomers to Okinawa, and for those who have never experienced a typhoon, give this link a good read. This will help you prepare for a typhoon and, most importantly, teach you what tropical cyclone preparedness means.
Le week-end continue d’être rude pour Okinawa, où le Super Typhoon Trami est concerné. It should no longer be a category 5 or even a category 4 at this stage; The planned track shows sustained winds between 121 and 132 mph in the center, but all day Saturday and Sunday morning does not look good.
At 9 am Trami was 486 miles south of Kadena Air Base, crawling west-southwest at 3 mph and stable at sustained winds of 161 mph and gusts to 196 mph. According to forecasts from the Typhoon Joint Warning Center, Trami has reached its peak and is expected to gradually decrease until the weekend.
If Trami stays on its current trajectory, it should remain quasi-stationary for the next two days, then resume a northwest course, passing just west of Miyako Island on Saturday morning and then veer to the Northeast Kadena at 6 am Sunday.
There are still about 390 miles of model solutions four days later, so all of this could change. Or everything could stay the same. Just a matter of time before things get better.
Whatever the final trajectory of Trami, it is the front quadrant of any tropical cyclone that is the worst of the lot, dragging all that heat, moisture and warm sea surface to the north. This seems to be the quadrant that could make things miserable for Okinawa over the weekend.
At this point, no change in Kadena's long-term forecasts; Les bases américaines d’Okinawa restent pour l’instant en état de préparation aux cyclones tropicaux saisonniers 4. Attendez-vous à ce que les mises à niveau de TCCOR commencent vendredi matin, avec précaution et TCCOR d'urgence possible à la mi-soirée vendredi, puis tôt samedi matin.
The tracks of the International Meteorological Bureau continue to align with those of the JTWC, including the track of the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau and the PAGASA track in the Philippines.
La préparation et la communication sont essentielles pour être prêt à affronter tout cyclone tropical. Faites attention aux TCCOR et à quoi faire pendant chacune d'entre elles. Do not take unnecessary changes; do not go out during periods of destructive winds. Get your safe, Okinawa!
Tuesday, September 25 at 6 am Japan time: It looks like Okinawa could have significant effects after Trami. Not equivalent to category 5, but destructive winds from the back of the storm that make its forecasts pass some 130 miles west of the island during the night from Saturday to Sunday morning.
This storm is not a joke. Il est prévu de devenir une grosse bête d'ici la fin de semaine, avec des bandes de vent de 34 nœuds allant de la côte est de la Chine à l'ouest des îles Daito à l'est d'Okinawa – un bon diamètre de 700 milles.
While Okinawa will not be in the middle, the forecasts indicate that it should be close enough to make a weekend rather unpleasant.
At 3 am, Super Typhoon Trami was 483 miles south of Kadena Air Base, heading west-northwest at 7 mph and climbing to a Category 5 equivalency
Si Trami continue sur sa lancée, il devrait se tourner vers le nord en milieu d'après-midi mardi et caler pour les prochains jours, culminant à 167 mi / h avec des vents soutenus et des rafales à 201 mi / h au centre.
It should then falter before resuming its course to the northwest towards Miyako Island, then turn northeast around Okinawa, pass 126 miles to the north-west West of the island.
The long-term weather forecast for Kadena calls for winds of 23 mph and 23 km / h on Wednesday, increasing to 31 and 44 km / h and increasing to 39 mph. winds and bursts of 59 mph Saturday. Windfinder.com also calls for stronger and stronger winds on the weekend, the night from Saturday to Sunday.
US bases on Okinawa remain in the state of preparation for seasonal tropical cyclones. 4. Improved TCCORs could start by Thursday as Trami approaches Okinawa and if destructive winds are likely.
That said, there is still some variation in the orientation of the model, which now reaches 782 miles, according to the JTWC. While the GFS forecast set reflects the JTWC trail and Windfinder.com supports it, the CMC ensemble continues to favor a straight line to the west, with outliers from the northeast.
International meteorological offices have also fallen online. The track of Taiwan's Central Meteorological Bureau also reflects the trajectory of the JTWC, as does the track of the Philippine National Meteorological Authority, PAGASA.
Still a wait-and-see game, since the model's solution is widespread. Restez à l'écoute.
Monday, September 24, Japan time: The most recent forecast of Super Typhoon Trami is getting closer to Okinawa in the long run, as it seems that on the weekend, it is heading for a corridor between the Japanese Ishigaki and Miyako Islands.
At 2100 hours Trami was 1,072 miles west-northwest of Guam and 512 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, northwesterly at 9 mph. and slowing down somewhat. In the center. According to the Guam National Weather Service, the typhoon force winds extend to 65 miles from central storm force winds and 200 tropical storm winds.
Trami is expected to bend toward mid-morning on Tuesday and crawl northward, almost stationary, for nearly two days, gathering late Tuesday at 167 km / h with sustained winds and gusts to 201 mph, a storm equivalent to category 5.
Two days later, Trami is expected to resume its northwest course, passing 233 miles southwest of Kadena on Saturday at noon, and at a center of 161 mph winds and 161 mph gusts. with Okinawa 58-mph) destructive wind bands.
At least for the moment.
In fact, the spread of model solutions is expanding – about 650 miles from central Taiwan to just west of Amami-Oshima, about 200 miles north of Kadena. The GFS forecast suite continues to favor the north-east route around Okinawa, with Windfinder.com supporting this scenario, while the CMC continues to represent a western runway to Taiwan.
La piste du Bureau météorologique central de Taïwan est en grande partie alignée sur la piste du JTWC, tandis que la piste PAGASA de l'autorité météorologique nationale des Philippines continue de privilégier la course vers Taiwan.
In short, few changes to the previous report and still a ton of question marks above Trami. Stay tuned here.
Monday, September 24, Japan time: Le Joint Typhoon Warning Centre a procédé à la mise à niveau de Trami vers un super-typhon équivalent à la catégorie 4. Il reste prévu qu’il atteindra son point culminant en tant que tempête de catégorie 5 et garde Ishigaki dans la ligne de mire pour le moment.
At 1500 hours Trami was 1024 miles west-northwest of Guam and 550 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base in Okinawa.
According to the Guam National Weather Service, the typhoon force winds extend to 65 miles from the center and tropical storm winds to 205 miles north and 140 miles south of the center.
If Trami continues its current momentum, it is planned to spend 256 miles west-southwest of Kadena at 8:00 am Saturday, on a northwestern pass passing through Ishigaki at noon Saturday.
Trami is expected to peak at 167 km / h with sustained winds and gusts to 201 mph on Tuesday afternoon, remaining a category 5 storm for about a day and a super typhoon for about two days, gradually decreasing to North West.
Cela commence à ressembler à un disque cassé, mais le dernier sentier de prévision de Trami reste en suspens, comme cela a été le cas depuis que la tempête a éclaté il y a quatre jours.
There is still a distance of 587 miles between model solutions, from central Taiwan to Okinawa. The GFS forecast ensemble continues to represent a northeastern curve around Okinawa, with outliers in both directions; et l'ensemble CMC continue de privilégier une piste vers Taiwan.
Windfinder.com confirms the trajectory of the GFS ensemble, with an even narrower passage to Okinawa – and stronger winds and gusts – over the weekend. The track at the Taiwan Central Meteorological Office continues to favor the Ishigaki solution, while the Philippine National Meteorological Authority, PAGASA, continues to favor a route to Taiwan.
In short, the only thing certain … it is the uncertainty. Restez à l'écoute.
Midi lundi 24 septembre, heure du Japon: Typhoon Trami is expected to continue super typhoon status on Monday night, with Ishigaki Island in southwestern Japan remaining in Trami's sights, according to the latest track at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
À 9 heures du matin, Trami se trouvait à 950 milles à l'ouest-nord-ouest de Guam et à 597 milles au sud-est de la base aérienne de Kadena, à Okinawa, en direction ouest-nord-ouest à 12 mi / h.
According to the Guam National Weather Service, the typhoon force winds extend to 60 miles from the center and winds of the tropical storm force to 195 miles to the north and 160 miles south of the center.
If it continues its current momentum, Trami is expected to reach super-typhoon strength on Monday in the middle of the evening and peaking at 161 mph with sustained winds and gusts of 196 mph on Tuesday night, remaining a three-hour typhoon. maximum. days.
The model's directions came in a slightly better deal on a track to Taiwan, then on a curve to the north or northeast around Okinawa and to the main islands of Japan. But there are still disparities between the other tracks and sets. Much remains in the air.
6 am Monday, September 24, Japan time: Ishigaki Island, in southwestern Japan, appears to be the new target of Typhoon Trami, which is expected to reach the strength of super-typhoons on Monday afternoon and continue until Thursday, according to the latest runway. Seal Typhoon Warning.
At 3 am Trami was 855 miles west-northwest of Guam and 647 miles south-south-east of Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, west-northbound. West at 14 mph.
Selon le Service météorologique national de Guam, les vents de force de typhons s'étendent à 50 milles du centre et les vents de force de tempête tropicaux à 185 milles au nord-est et à 115 milles au sud du centre.
Trami is expected to reach the super-typhoon force equivalent to category 4 on Monday afternoon, then peak Tuesday morning in super-typhoon equivalent of category 5, with sustained winds of 167 mph and gusts of 201 mph before to weaken gradually towards the ground.
What remains the question of $ 64,000. Although the orientation of the model remains virtually unchanged, the JTWC has adjusted its trajectory a little to the northeast, to Ishigaki instead of Taiwan, as previously stated.
The Philippine National Meteorological Authority, PAGASA, continues to represent a trail to Taiwan, while the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau is further aligning on the JTWC on a runway towards Ishigaki.
The forecast sets continue to show a disparity of 440 miles between solutions. The entire GFS continues to display a curve to the west around Okinawa, then to the northeast to the main islands of Japan, and the CMC ensemble continues to favor the West to Taiwan and China, in the same direction as Mangkhut at the beginning of the month.
Windfinder.com continues to anticipate a rainy weekend weekend, with winds not as fierce as they called it Sunday night.
Les bases américaines sur Okinawa restent dans l'état de préparation des cyclones tropicaux saisonniers. 4. Destructive winds are not expected for the island at this stage. Weather forecasts in Kadena forecast bursts of 25 to 42 mph all week, with isolated showers and thunderstorms throughout the forecast period.
Encore un jeu de devinettes, les gars. Stay tuned here.
11 o'clock in the evening. Sunday, September 23, Japan time: Typhoon Trami is gaining strength rapidly, now reaching sustained winds of 132 mph and gusts of 161 mph. It is expected to remain the fifth super typhoon of the season, peaking at 161 mph with strong winds in mid-morning Tuesday and continuing on a west-northwest track, but with a slight hiccup.
At 2100 hours, Trami was 788 miles west-northwest of Guam and 703 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, west-northwest to 13 mph. Selon le service météorologique national de Guam, les vents de la force du typhon s'étendent sur 25 milles à partir des vents du centre et des vents de tempête tropicale à 195 milles au nord-est et à 155 milles ailleurs.
Si Trami continue d'avancer comme prévu, le Joint Typhoon Warning Center prévoit qu'il atteindra des vents soutenus de 167 mi / h et des rafales de 201 mi / h à 9h mardi, puis ralentira de manière significative et tournera brièvement vers le nord-ouest avant de reprendre une trajectoire ouest-nord-ouest vers Taiwan.
He should venture into this area late Friday or early Saturday, again with 144 mph sustained winds.
It depends a lot on what's going on in the long run. There remains a wide range of model solutions, with a maximum range of about 540 miles, said a JTWC official.
Le Bureau météorologique central de Taiwan indique une piste vers le centre de Taïwan entrant dans le week-end, tout comme l'ensemble de prévisions CMC.
The Philippine Meteorological Authority, PAGASA, is showing a trail further south towards Kaohsiung and perhaps the Babuyan and Batane Islands groups are affected.
The GFS forecast set favors a route west of Okinawa, then north-east to the main islands of Japan, Windfinder.com corroborating this possibility and suggesting a windy weekend for Okinawa. However, the JTWC's prognostic reasoning calls for this unlikely scenario.
In short, the most certain thing at this stage seems to be uncertainty. Cela peut prendre encore un jour ou deux pour que les choses se calment. Restez à l'écoute.
18h Dimanche 23 septembre, heure du Japon: Typhoon Trami continues to intensify, sustained winds reaching 110 mph and gusts of 132 mph in the center and is slightly curved, heading west-northwest. at 11 mph.
According to the Guam National Meteorological Service, typhoon force winds extend to 30 miles from the center and winds of the tropical storm force to 190 miles northeast and 155 miles elsewhere. On prévoit toujours que Trami atteindra son maximum avec des vents soutenus de 161 mi / h et des rafales de 196 mi / h mercredi en après-midi mercredi, puis diminuant légèrement au fur et à mesure qu'il se dirige vers l'ouest.
Le Centre commun d’alerte au typhon prévoit que Trami continuera à se diriger vers l’ouest-nord-ouest, bien que son objectif ultime reste incertain.
Un énorme fossé subsiste dans les orientations du modèle. L'ensemble de prévisions GFS suggère toujours une courbe nord-est autour d'Okinawa à travers le détroit de Tsushima, près de la base navale de Sasebo et de la base navale de Chinhae. The entire CMC continues to favor a straight line to the west across Taiwan (or perhaps Luzon) with some aberrations to the northeast.
Une légère chance que de légers effets puissent être ressentis à Okinawa, mais rien de grave, du moins pour le moment. Weather forecasts for Kadena predict rising winds on Tuesday and isolated showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. Restez à l'écoute.
Trami also entered the Philippine area of responsibility and was named Paeng by the PAGASA National Meteorological Authority. Warning signals for tropical cyclones may be reported to the Batanes and Babuyan groups later this week.
Dimanche 23 septembre, heure du Japon: 6 h 00: Trami a été modernisé pour devenir un typhon équivalent à la catégorie 1 par le Joint Typhoon Warning Centre. Et comme Trami continue de se renforcer, une solution sur la destination exacte de Trami continue d’être insaisissable.
À 3 heures du matin, Trami se trouvait à 836 milles au sud-est de la base aérienne de Kadena, à Okinawa. Selon le service météorologique national, les vents de tempête tropicale s'étendent sur 190 milles du centre au nord-est et à 65 milles au sud-est.
Le JTWC prévoit que Trami s'intensifiera rapidement pour former un supertyphoon équivalent à la catégorie 5, atteignant un maximum de 161 km / h avec des vents soutenus de 196 km / h et des rafales de 196 km / h au centre, mercredi, avant de diminuer légèrement pour se diriger vers le sud-ouest de Taiwan.
Mais où aller à partir de là? Il reste une dispersion de 328 milles parmi les solutions modèles, l’ensemble GFS indiquant toujours une courbe nord-est et l’ensemble CMC privilégiant une ligne droite traversant Taiwan vers la côte chinoise avant de s’orienter vers le nord-est.
19h30 Samedi 22 septembre, heure du JaponLes indications du modèle concernant la tempête tropicale Trami restent divisées en deux solutions principales: une trajectoire rectiligne possible vers l’ouest vers les Philippines, Taiwan ou la Chine et une courbe nord-est vers le détroit de Tsushima entre la Corée et l’ouest du Japon.
À 18 heures, Trami se trouvait à 996 milles au sud-est de la base aérienne de Kadena à Okinawa et à 475 milles au nord-ouest de Guam, se dirigeant ouest-nord-ouest à 14 mi / h, avec des vents soutenus de 58 mi / h et des rafales de 75 mi / h. Les vents de la tempête tropicale s’étendent à 190 milles du centre de la tempête. Selon le Service météorologique national, une surveillance des crues éclair et des avis concernant les petites embarcations resteront en vigueur pour les Mariannes ce week-end.
La piste de prévision du Centre commun d’alerte au typhon prend Trami ouest-nord-ouest en direction de Taïwan jeudi après-midi. From there, it's hard to tell where he's going. L’ensemble de prévisions de GFS privilégie la courbe nord-est, tandis que l’ensemble CMC privilégie l’Ouest linéaire avec quelques points aberrants.
Samedi 22 septembre, heure du Japon: 6h15 L’avenir à long terme de la tempête tropicale Trami est plus incertain que prévu.
Le plus gros point d’interrogation: quelle direction cela prendra-t-il, car les conseils de modèle sont plus largement répandus que jamais dans la brève vie de Trami. Et il se pourrait que Trami ait une brève vie de super typhon, voire pas du tout.
À 3 heures du matin, Trami se trouvait à 288 milles au nord-ouest de Guam, se dirigeant vers l'ouest-nord-ouest à 14 mi / h, avec des vents soutenus de 52 mi / h et des rafales de 63 mi / h. Selon le Service météorologique national de Guam, les vents de force tempête tropicale s'étendent sur 150 milles au nord-est du centre et 60 au sud-ouest.
La veille de tempête tropicale pour Rota, Tinian et Saipan a été annulée, bien que la veille éclair et l’avis concernant les petites embarcations restent en vigueur pour le week-end.
Certains modèles projettent encore que Trami se courbe au nord-est après avoir suivi le sud-ouest d'Okinawa, puis se courbe vers le nord-est après avoir parcouru la côte nord-est de Taiwan. D'autres préfèrent une course rectiligne vers Taiwan et la Chine.
Les prévisions météorologiques à long terme pour Okinawa indiquent une reprise des vents, des pluies de pluie et des orages isolés de mardi à mercredi. Les bases américaines d’Okinawa restent dans l’état de préparation aux cyclones tropicaux saisonniers 4.
19h Vendredi 21 septembre, heure de Guam: Où ira-t-il? Quelle sera sa force? Et quand cela arrivera-t-il?
Celles-ci demeurent les grandes questions concernant la trajectoire et l'intensité projetées de 28W, qui ont été transformées en tempête tropicale par le Centre commun d'alerte aux typhons vendredi après-midi. Il continue de se cacher au nord-ouest de Guam, se renforçant progressivement à mesure qu’il se déplace vers le nord-ouest.
Le modèle de guidage reste en suspens, mais semble indiquer un chemin possible entre Okinawa et Taïwan, certaines solutions étant orientées ensuite vers la courbe nord-est. Et intensification dans le cinquième super typhon de la saison des cyclones tropicaux du Pacifique nord-ouest.
À 15h, 28W se trouvait à 145 milles au nord-ouest de Guam et à 256 milles au sud-est de la base aérienne de Kadena, à Okinawa. Si elle continue de se déplacer et s'intensifie comme prévu, 28 W atteindront leur point culminant à des vents de 155 mi / h et des rafales de 190 mi / h mercredi après-midi.
Selon le Service météorologique national de Guam, une veille de tempête tropicale reste en vigueur pour Rota, Tinian et Saipan, ainsi qu’une surveillance des crues éclair et des petites embarcations pour les trois plus Guam.
La question demeure, quelle est la destination finale de 28W? Fera-t-il une course à l'ouest vers Taiwan ou la Chine? Courbera-t-il à l'est ou à l'ouest d'Okinawa ou au-dessus de l'île? JTWC prévoit une courbe à l'est d'Okinawa; les ensembles de prévisions GFS brossent un tableau différent. Restez à l'écoute.
13h Vendredi 21 septembre, heure de Guam: 28W, qui n'a pas encore été nommé, reste une dépression tropicale pour le moment. Mais les prévisions à long terme du centre d’alerte interarmées contre les typhons prévoient que 28 MW devraient se déplacer dans la direction générale d’Okinawa d’ici le milieu de la semaine prochaine.
Selon le Service météorologique national de Guam, une veille de tempête tropicale reste en vigueur pour Rota, Tinian et Saipan, ainsi qu'une veille éclair et un avis sur les petites embarcations pendant le week-end.
À 10 h 45, 28 W se trouvaient à 75 milles au nord-nord-ouest de Guam et à 1 323 milles au sud-est de la base aérienne de Kadena, à Okinawa.
Si 28W continue de bouger comme prévu, il devrait commencer à tourner vers le nord lundi au milieu de la matinée, légèrement à 331 milles de Kadena mercredi au milieu de la matinée comme un super typhon, des vents soutenus de 161 mph et des rafales de 195 mph.
Mais il est encore trop tôt pour tirer des conclusions définitives. Le guidage des modèles reste très divisé, avec un écart de 430 km parmi les solutions de voie cinq jours auparavant. Cela reste un jeu de devinettes. Restez à l'écoute.
Vendredi 21 septembre, heure de Guam: 8h30 Une nouvelle dépression tropicale s'est formée durant la nuit au nord de Guam. Le Joint Typhoon Warning Center prévoit 28 W pour se déplacer vers l’ouest, devenant probablement le cinquième super typhon de la saison et se dirigeant vers Okinawa au milieu de la semaine prochaine.
À 7 heures du matin, le 28 W, encore sans nom, se trouvait à 45 milles au nord de Guam, se dirigeant vers le nord-ouest à 9 mi / h. Une veille de tempête tropicale est en vigueur pour Rota, Tinian et Saipan, selon le Service météorologique national de Guam.
It is expected that 28W will become a tropical storm as early as Friday night, then move from west to northwest and intensify rapidly, reaching a maximum of 150 mph / hour and winds of 184 mph / Wednesday morning.
La question à ce stade est où ira-t-il. Les instructions de modèle sont assez dispersées, de même que les ensembles de prévisions GFS et CMC. C’est un jeu de devinettes en ce moment. Restez à l'écoute.
19h45 Jeudi 20 septembre, heure de Guam: Eh bien, ce n'était pas vraiment une pause – trois jours, pour être exact – entre le super typhon Mangkhut et une nouvelle perturbation tropicale, sur laquelle le Centre commun d'alerte aux typhons a émis une formation de cyclone tropical alerte.
Selon le Service météorologique national de Guam, une veille éclair est en vigueur pour Guam, Tinian, Rota et Saipan, tandis qu’un avis concernant les petites embarcations est en vigueur pour les eaux autour de Saipan et de Tinian.
La perturbation, 92W Invest, se trouve à 105 milles à l’est-sud-est de la base aérienne d’Andersen, et se poursuit actuellement vers l’ouest et le nord-ouest. Le JTWC prévoit de continuer à se diriger ouest-nord-ouest en direction des Philippines ou de Taiwan, et d’atteindre le statut de dépression tropicale au cours des prochains jours.
L’on se demande si tout va bien. Il existe un vaste écart entre les modèles de guidage; Il en va de même pour les ensembles de prévisions GFS et CMC. Il est temps d’attendre pour le moment. Restez à l'écoute.
Si c’était une tempête numérotée, c’était la 28e saison des cyclones tropicaux du Pacifique Nord-Ouest. Si cela devenait une tempête nommée, cela s'appellerait Trami, vietnamien pour un type de rosier.
