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18h Sunday 23 September, Japan time: The Trami Tryphoon continues to intensify, up to 110 mph with sustained winds and gusts of 132 mph in the center and is slightly bent, heading west-northwest at 11 mi. / h.
According to the Guam National Meteorological Service, typhoon force winds extend to 30 miles from the center and winds of the tropical storm force to 190 miles northeast and 155 miles elsewhere. It is expected that Trami will peak at sustained winds of 161 mph and gusts of 196 mph on Wednesday afternoon, then decrease slightly as it heads west.
The Typhoon Joint Warning Center predicts that Trami will continue to move west-northwest, although its ultimate goal remains unclear.
A huge gap remains in the orientation of the model. The GFS forecast ensemble still suggests a northeasterly curve around Okinawa through the Tsushima Strait, near the Sasebo Naval Base and the Chinhae Naval Base. The entire CMC continues to favor a straight line to the west across Taiwan (or perhaps Luzon) with some aberrations to the northeast.
A slight chance that slight effects can be felt on Okinawa, but nothing serious, at least for the moment. Weather forecasts for Kadena predict rising winds on Tuesday and isolated showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. Stay tuned.
Sunday, September 23, Japan time: Trami has been upgraded to a category 1 typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. And as Trami continues to grow stronger, a solution on Trami's exact destination continues to be elusive.
At 3 am Trami was 836 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base in Okinawa. According to the National Weather Service, tropical storm winds extend 190 miles from the center to the northeast and 65 miles to the southeast.
JTWC predicts that Trami will intensify rapidly in a Category 5 supertyphoon, peaking at 161 mph with steady winds and gusts of 196 mph in the center at 3 pm Wednesday, then decrease a little as it approaches from southern Taiwan.
But where to go from there? There remains a dispersion of 328 miles among the model solutions, the GFS set always indicating a north-east curve and the CMC set favoring a straight line crossing Taiwan to the Chinese coast before moving towards the northeast.
19:30 Saturday, September 22, Japan timeThe Tropical Trami model's indications remain divided into two main solutions: a possible straight westward path to the Philippines, Taiwan, or China, and a northeasterly curve to the Tsushima Strait between Korea and the west. from Japan.
At 1800, Trami was 996 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base in Okinawa and 475 miles west-northwest of Guam. The winds of the tropical storm extend 190 miles from the center of the storm. According to the National Meteorological Service, a watch on flash floods and small boats remains in force for Marianas.
The typhoon warning center's forecast runway takes Trami west-northwest to Taiwan on Thursday afternoon. From there, it's hard to tell where he's going. The GFS forecast set favors the north-east curve, while the CMC set favors the straight west with a few outliers.
6:15 am Saturday, September 22, Japan time: The long-term future of tropical storm Trami is becoming more uncertain than expected.
Biggest question marks: in which direction will it go, because the orientation of the model is more widespread than ever in the brief life of Trami. And Trami could have a short life as a super typhoon, if at all.
At 3 am Trami was 288 miles northwest of Guam, heading west-northwest at 14 mph, with sustained winds of 52 mph and gusts of 63 mph. According to the Guam National Weather Service, tropical storm winds extend 150 miles northeast of the center and 60 miles southwest.
The tropical storm eve for Rota, Tinian and Saipan has been canceled, although the eve and small craft advisory remain in effect for the weekend.
Some models still project that Trami bends to the northeast after following southwest Okinawa, then curves northeast after traveling the northeast coast of Taiwan. Others are more favorable to Taiwan and China.
Long-term weather forecasts for Okinawa indicate a recovery in wind, rain and isolated storms from Tuesday to Wednesday. US bases in Okinawa remain in the state of preparation for seasonal tropical cyclones.
Friday, September 21, Guam time: Where will he go? What will be his strength? And when will it happen?
These remain the big questions regarding the projected 28 W trajectory and intensity, which were turned into a tropical storm by the Typhoon Common Warning Center on Friday afternoon. He continues to hide north-west of Guam, gradually becoming stronger as he moves north-west.
The guidance of the model remains uncertain, but seems to indicate a possible path between Okinawa and Taiwan, some solutions then pointing to a northeast curve. And intensification in the fifth super typhoon of the tropical cyclone season of the Pacific Northwest.
At 15:00, 28W was 145 miles northwest of Guam and 256 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base in Okinawa. If it continues to move and intensify as planned, 28 W will reach their highest point with 155 mph winds and 190 mph bursts on Wednesday afternoon.
According to the Guam National Weather Service, a tropical storm watch remains in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan, as well as flash flood and small boat monitoring for the three Guam.
The question remains: where is the final destination of 28W? Will it be a race to the west to Taiwan or China? Will it be curled in the east or west of Okinawa or on the island? JTWC predicts a curve to the east of Okinawa; GFS forecast sets paint a different picture. Stay tuned.
1 pm Friday, September 21, Guam time: The 28W, still unnamed, remains a tropical depression for the moment. But the long-term forecast of the joint typhoon warning center predicts that 28 MW should move in the general direction of Okinawa by the middle of next week.
According to the Guam National Weather Service, a tropical storm watch remains in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan, as well as a lightning watch and a notice on small craft during the weekend.
At 1045 hours, 28 W were 75 miles north-northwest of Guam and 1323 miles southeast of Kadena Air Base in Okinawa at 15 mph with 35-mi winds. / h and gusts of 46 mph.
If 28W continues to advance as expected, it should start turning north in mid-morning on Monday, less than 331 miles from Kadena on Wednesday morning, while a super typhoon, sustained winds of 161 mph and gusts of 195 mph.
But it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions. Model guidance remains largely divided, with a distance of 430 miles between the five-day tracks. It remains a guessing game. Stay tuned.
8:30 Friday, September 21, Guam time: A new tropical depression formed overnight in northern Guam. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicts 28 W to move west, becoming probably the fifth super typhoon of the season and heading to Okinawa in the middle of next week.
At 7 o'clock in the morning, the unnamed 28 W was 45 miles north of Guam, heading northwest at 9 mph. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Rota, Tinian and Saipan, according to the Guam National Weather Service.
It is expected that 28W will become a tropical storm as early as Friday night, then move from west to northwest and intensify rapidly, reaching a maximum of 150 mph / hour and winds of 184 mph / Wednesday morning.
The question at this point is where will it go. The model's orientations are rather dispersed, as are the GFS and CMC forecast sets. It's a guessing game right now. Stay tuned.
7:45 pm Thursday, September 20, Guam time: Well, it was not really a break – three days, to be exact – between the Typhoon Mangkhut Super and a new tropical disturbance, on which the Joint Alert Center at Typhoon issued a tropical cyclone alert formation.
According to the Guam National Meteorological Service, a flash watch is in effect for Guam, Tinian, Rota and Saipan, while a Small Vessel Notice is in effect for the waters around Saipan and Tinian.
The disturbance, 92W Invest, is 105 miles east-southeast of Andersen Air Base, and is currently continuing west and northwest. The JTWC plans 92W to continue heading west-northwest in the general direction of the Philippines or Taiwan, and to reach the status of tropical depression in the coming days.
Where it is directed precisely, is anyone's guess. There is a wide range of orientation models; likewise with the GFS and CMC forecast sets. We have to wait for the moment. Stay tuned.
If it becomes a numbered storm, it would be the 28th tropical cyclone season in the Pacific Northwest. If this becomes a named storm, she would call Trami, Vietnamese for a type of rose bush.
