Typhoon Yutu Could Strike Guam as a Category 5 Beast

It feels like 2018 is the year of rapid intensification. Storm after storm after storm. The latest cyclone to join the group is Typhoon Yutu which is in the midst of spinning up a Category 5 super typhoon by Wednesday. Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands lie squarely in the typhoon's path.

Yutu spent all day on the latest news, and it was estimated to be 127 mph. That's the equivalent of a very strong category, and with nothing but warm water in its path, Yutu is expected to continue amping up. The storm's winds could be roaring around 155 mph Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands on Thursday morning local time.

The National Weather Service Guam office has posted a typhoon warning calling for powerful surf and up to a half of rain. The hilly land of Guam will be a speed bump for Yutu, which is forecast to keep climbing in the end of the week. Its winds could reach an astounding 172 mph, which would be one of the strongest storms on Earth this year. Thankfully, it will not be that terrifying feat with no threat to land.

Some weather experts have been watching the storm via satellite wondering if the official forecast is a bit underdone and if Yutu could be more intense than current estimates. That's because there's a subjective element involved. Satellites do not measure storms, but provide a snapshot of convection and the processes that indicate how healthy a storm is.

Meteorologists use data to estimate wind speeds using something called Dvorak technique. Without getting into a bunch of equations, what are the consequences for the satellite imagery reveals about convection, temperatures within the storm, and a few other factors to come up with a "T number," which can be translated into an estimated wind speed.

The technique is very useful for the Pacific Ocean as it does not have the benefit of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Hunters. And Chris Velden, a hurricane expert at the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), told Earther that using the technique "gets the meanest state right most of the time, but it does not work. intensifying storm or decaying storm. "

Yutu is one of those storms, and while Velden said it was pretty spot-on, that does not mean the storm will not continue to push the limits of what's possible.

"This has potential to grow into a Category 5 real quickly," he said. "People at the Typhoon Warning Center are watching this. They know what they're doing. "