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If intelligent life is so likely to exist elsewhere in the universe, why did not we find it? Well, the chances of us meeting aliens do not look good, according to a new study.
Scientists from the Institute of the Future of Mankind of Oxford University have revealed that we are probably the only advanced civilization, although they can not not say for sure. The team came to their conclusion after realizing that the Fermi paradox and its supporting theories are somewhat flawed. The paradox is the conflict between the probability that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe and the lack of such evidence.
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This is related to other theories like the Drake equation, which says that even if the probability of life elsewhere is low, because of the large size of the universe, it is possible that There is a large number of civilizations somewhere.
Oxford researchers have cast another look at Drake's equation and discovered how conjectures can be misleading when selecting parameters to include in the equation. Their findings are published in a new study, "Dissolving the Fermi Paradox".
"When people discuss the [Drake] equation it is not uncommon to hear them say something like: "this parameter is uncertain, but let's make a guess and remember that it's a guess", eventually reaching a result that they believe is based on assumptions » Dr. Anders Sandberg, one of the authors of the study, told Universe Today.
"This often leads to excessive trust, and worse, Drake's equation is very sensitive to bias: if you hope a little boost upwards in several uncertain estimates will yield a hopeful result, and if you are pessimistic, you can easily get a low result "
The researchers assigned each parameter of the equation, ranging from the smallest to the largest possible value, based on current knowledge. This revealed that in a third of cases, the galaxy would be absolutely devoid of intelligent life elsewhere than on Earth. In other scenarios, however, there could be a large number of civilizations.
These are not all bad news, because scientists' conclusions do not entirely exclude extraterrestrial life. It just means that it's more likely that humans are the only smart species in our galaxy right now – but that can change everything in the future.
"What we do not show, is that SETI [search for extraterrestrial intelligence] is useless – quite the contrary! " Sandberg said.
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