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LONDON — UK and EU negotiating teams have agreed on a Brexit withdrawal deal which Theresa May will present to her Cabinet on Wednesday.
The UK government has confirmed reports that May’s most senior ministers will read the details of the draft agreement this evening before a special Cabinet meeting at 14:00 (GMT) on Wednesday.
An agreement between the UK and EU over how to prevent a hard border with Northern Ireland over Brexit was reached during intensive negotiations held on Monday and Tuesday, sources told BI.
Brexit talks had been at an impasse for weeks over the question of how a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic can be avoided no matter what the outcome of negotiations.
UK and EU negotiators agreed after months of talks that there will be a UK-wide “backstop” if Britain fails to agree on a comprehensive trading deal before the end of the two-year Brexit transition period in December 2020.
The backstop will take the shape of a UK-wide customs union with the EU, with Northern Ireland sticking to some of the European single market. This would guarantee no border checks on the island of Ireland.
Crucially, the backstop is not set to come with a fixed end-date, as demanded by pro-Brexit MPs, but will come with a “review clause” for deciding when it can come to an end. Brexiteers are concerned that this arrangement will leave the UK trapped in a customs union with the EU for years to come, unable to sign new free trade deals.
The breakthrough in negotiations means EU leaders might be able to ratify the deal at a summit in Brussels later this month. The pound rose 1.4% against the dollar on the news on Tuesday.
Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney downplayed widespread reports of a Brexit deal, claiming “negotiations between the EU and UK on a Withdrawal Agreement are ongoing and have not concluded. Negotiators are still engaged and a number of issues are outstanding. We are not commenting further on leaks in the media.”
What next?
Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab reportedly belongs to a handful of Cabinet Brexiteers who are prepared to resign from the government if the Brexit withdrawal agreement doesn’t meet their demands.
Business Insider reported last month that Cabinet members Andrea Leadsom, Penny Mordaunt, and Esther McVey were all prepared to resign if May accepted a backstop with no fixed end-date.
Leadsom warned on Sunday that MPs would not accept a backstop which the UK cannot leave without the EU’s permission. She told the BBC: “I don’t think something that trapped the UK in any arrangement against our will would be sellable to members of Parliament.”
10 Downing Street realise that ministers could quit their positions over the details of the deal. However, the prime minister has previously pressed on despite the resignations of high-profile ministers like David Davis and Boris Johnson, and would likely do the same again.
The biggest challenge facing May will come in the House of Commons vote on the deal.
A vast majority of Labour MPs are set to vote against it, as well as Conservative MPs from the pro-Brexit and pro-EU wings of the party, and possibly the 10 MPs from the Democratic Unionist Party which props up her government.
