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Jon Gruden and the Oakland Raiders have announced plans to rebuild themselves by eliminating Khalil Mack before the season. On Monday, they made another step forward to break the young core that was supposed to bring the organization to Vegas by sending Amari Cooper to the Dallas Cowboys for a first round pick in the 2019 draft.
The initial reaction to this decision was diametrically opposed to the discussion we saw last time Gruden exchanged one of the star selections of general manager Reggie McKenzie. When the Raiders traded Mack to the Bears against a package designed around two first-round players, the NFL world seemed shocked that the Raiders are content with such misery. This time, Gruden and the organization were praised for finding a major asset while getting rid of a player they clearly did not intend to sign.
When I wrote about trading Mack, I tried to understand why the Raiders could justify getting rid of him. This time, let's look at things from the Cowboys' point of view. What is their logic to go after Cooper? Can we imagine a scenario in which they would be better off in the short or long term by exchanging their first speaker against Cooper?
L & # 39; exchange
This trade does not really concern Cooper. Dak Prescott wants to know if the Cowboys want to commit to Prescott at the same rate as a quarter of a franchise once its contract is in effect after 2019. After a staggering 2016 season, Prescott took a step back in 2017 and was not much better. Until 2018. The Cowboys essentially squandered the Prescott rookie contract with salary cap errors and injuries to offensive potential contributors.
The biggest problem for Prescott, at least in 2018, was the one expected by many people before the season: he is struggling with a group of recipients absolutely catastrophic. Prescott will play with Ezekiel Elliott, but I put Dallas in the 30th position of the season, even with Zeke. The best double of Prescott this season was the receiver of slot machines Cole Beasley. Tavon Austin, Michael Gallup and Allen Hurns, for example, still have not played. The world's tightest team, Geoff Swaim, who had nine catches in the first three seasons, scored 55 goals before suffering a knee injury on Sunday.
No league catcher's body seemed less impressive on paper before the season and the Cowboys met expectations. The next-generation NFL statistics reveal what Dak needs to do, as the league follows the separation times between the receiver and the closest defender when a pass comes. Only 36.4% of Prescott passes were sent to open receivers (more than 3 meters from the defender) this season, the lowest rate of the league among the quarterbacks with 200 or more attempts. The average league is 45%. The Prescott middle pass goes to a receiver with a 2.9 yard distance. Again, it's the last of the 22 passers-up qualified. Nearly 43.9% of Prescott's passes were generated by receivers after the capture, which ranks 21st out of 22 smugglers.
Once Cooper clears the concussion league protocol, he should be a receiver capable of creating a head-to-head separation for Prescott. Cooper has been targeted just 32 times this season, but he has averaged 3.4 yards on a 6-yard margin or more, which is the best rate in the league. Over the past three seasons, Cooper has ranked 16th in terms of separating targets with 200 or more targets, alongside players in gaps, such as Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Odell Beckham Jr., Adam Thielen and Antonio Brown.
By exchanging a first-round pick for Amari Cooper, Dallas hopes to have a No. 1 receiver again capable of sustaining a mediocre passing game.
The Raiders say that they are rebuilding and not tanks. After exchanging Amari Cooper, they have five first-round picks in two years to lay the groundwork.
Amari Cooper to the Cowboys. Carlos Hyde to the Jaguars. With the deadline approaching, here are all NFL exchanges since training camp.
2 related
Beasley also occupies a prominent place in the statistics of separation, partly because he borrows routes outside the slot and rarely passes the contested passes. The division of labor in the slot could become a problem for these Cowboys. When Cooper struggled to start the 2017 season, the Raiders helped bring their star back to life by getting him into the slot, where he scored most of a 210-yard, two-touchdown , against the Chiefs. The Cowboys would probably be interested in giving Cooper a lot of reps in the slot, but they would do it at Beasley's expense.
Dallas can not realistically assess whether Prescott is his quarterback of the future with the Cowboys' broad body of pre-exchanges. Trading for Cooper gives them a wide credible range to analyze Prescott. Cooper's numbers have declined over the last two seasons, but the former Alabama star has not suffered the type of injury to his leg or foot that could harm his athletics, and he will not be 25 years old until next June.
With less evidence missing, it's hard to understand why Cooper has declined in the past two seasons. Part of the responsibility must be assigned to the Raiders coaching staff. They let offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave leave after the 2016 season to promote quarterback coach Todd Downing, in part to keep Downing from leaving for a coordinator position elsewhere. Downing has been an absolute disaster in his season at the helm. Gruden is now the de facto offensive boss, and although Cooper has not been at 100% for much of the season, he has accumulated two 100-yard games in his first four starts before the deal.
1:09
Adam Schefter divides the Amari Cooper Raiders trade to the Cowboys for a first-round pick.
L & # 39; money
The clock on a Prescott extension is turning. If the Cowboys were absolutely certain to want to stay in the Dak Group for several seasons, they would have signed a contract extension for Prescott before the last year of his contract with the recruits. This is the same fourth-year period that the Raiders had with Derek Carr and the Seahawks with Russell Wilson, each of them also being a mid-term choice with no fifth-year option tied to his contract of recruit.
In terms of current production, I would prefer that the Cowboys grant an extension to Prescott without the purchase of Cooper, but Dallas has reason to wonder if Prescott can improve his game with a better breakaway game. There is not really a recent precedent for a passing team from a smuggler as efficient as Prescott was after his rookie contract without serious injury, although in a league in which the quarterbacks rookie are basically the key to unlock the Super Bowl, we will see a team go in the next seasons.
Negotiating for Cooper now gives the Cowboys a season and a half to determine if Prescott is their type. If Prescott works, the Cowboys can use the franchise threat in 2020 to stay ahead of their lead before a long-term deal, although this may create a problem with Kirk Cousins in Washington. Otherwise, the Cowboys may enter a new quarter without committing to Prescott in the long run, although they are not first choice.
The problem with these calculations, of course, is that the Cowboys must also know what to do with Cooper. They are only paying $ 411,765 this season, but Cooper's option for the fifth year is $ 13.9 million in 2019. Even that represents a discount in a market in which Sammy Watkins receives $ 16 million a year free, do the Cowboys really want to pay Cooper something north of $ 20 million per season to stop him from hitting a free goal in 2020?
It's hard to make these deadlines work because the Cowboys can not cross or threaten franchise, both Cooper and Prescott by 2020. They can sign one of them this season off to free the franchise label in 2020, but they would do it. Lock up Cooper in an extension after half a season in Dallas or by signing Prescott before they're sure that's their guy.
Since the Cowboys have already hired a first-round pick to acquire Cooper and are willing to pay him nearly $ 14 million next year, I think they'll keep him in jail for an extension of the off-season . They already have more than $ 111 million in projected cap space for 2019, and although Cooper is not sure, the free agent market should not offer a better option.
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The division
There is also an advantage for the Cowboys in terms of competition for the NFC East, which should be won after the Eagles' slow start. As the Giants quickly disappear from the race and make it a three-team battle, the 3-4 Cowboys saw their chances of winning the division increase from 22.2% before the season to 30.7% after seven weeks, according to ESPN Football Power. Index.
Cooper is not going to change divisions on his own, but the trade is dealing with the weakest point in the Dallas roster with enough time for the Cowboys to make a big difference in the last nine games of the season. Will Cooper win the game against the Texans, in which the Cowboys could barely move the ball in the second half? Is there enough of a weapon for Jason Garrett to trust Prescott with 52 seconds left in the defeat on Sunday against Washington? I am not sure, but it is hard to say that Cowboys are not in better shape than before.
Of course, it's easy to improve when a team drops their first-round pick and the Cowboys incur an opportunity cost by not being able to get a player at a relatively low cost over the next four seasons. Just as Mack Group was leaving the Bears with an implicit price of $ 30 million per season, the Cowboys will probably be paying about $ 23 to $ 24 million a year to Cooper, taking into account the news they lost with a choice first round. Cooper can do this job if he becomes a superstar again, but the Cowboys will probably not realize much (if any) gain on this contract. They will also miss the addition of a member of the first round to help in the secondary line or in the offensive line, where their once vaunted unit has been torn apart by injuries over the past two seasons.
The very long term
As for Oakland, it is easier to understand. When you meet a fire sale, you sell things. The Raiders clearly had no intention of giving Cooper an extension after the 2019 season, and they'd better exchange a guy earlier rather than later if they do not want to pay premium. Getting rid of Cooper limits the extent to which the Raiders can evaluate Derek Carr, but the trade seems to confirm that Gruden may have already made his decision about Carr.
Gruden portrays trade as an opportunity, noting that Cooper was a good player and that the deal would give the Raiders five first round picks in the next two drafts. As tempting as comparing Gruden to Sashi Brown or Jimmy Johnson in Dallas, is Gruden really stocking draft picks when he's dealt with a third round pick for Martavis Bryant and a fifth round for AJ McCarron ? The first players are worth more, of course, but Gruden has not really proven himself in recruiting and developing young talent.
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If he does not think his team can win and wants to rebuild the team in his image, it makes sense to follow the repechage selections. What concerns me is less choice, but more veterans. At the beginning of the McKenzie era, Oakland was struggling to attract veteran freestyle players, as no one wanted to come play in a miserable team at an old-fashioned stadium. The Raiders had to target veterans who had exceeded their limits or who had paid too much to start until they showed signs of life with Carr, Cooper and Mack in 2015. A year later, with the Additions like Bruce Irvin and Kelechi Osemele went 12-4 and won the division.
Now, however, the Raiders are back to square one. Why would a veteran player want to play for the Gruden Raiders while they are clearly not determined to win in the near future? The Raiders do not really have promising young players on the list who are not under veteran contract, but if Cooper was stuck, why would he want to play for a coach who does not seem to want to pay young players who come out on their rookie deals? Who would play for the Raiders now if they were given the choice to play anywhere else in the league? It's fair to wonder if Gruden, who has publicly launched players such as Carr and Rashaan Melvin under the bus in recent weeks, has poisoned the well.
If you go to Las Vegas, you will see a billboard overlooking the future site of the Raiders Stadium, announcing the arrival of its future tenants. Most team billboards have a photo of the quarter star or a dynamic player. The only person represented on the Raiders' display panel is the coach. Given what we've seen from Gruden so far, it's fair to wonder if he will be the only current member of this organization to head to the desert for the planned debut of the world. team in 2020.
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