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While pushing to revive an Afghan peace process, the United States is facing a more powerful Taliban than ever since the withdrawal of a US-led military coalition 17 years ago, US officials said. and Afghans, activists and current and former experts.
The successes of the battlefield movement and its territorial gains give it greater influence in the talks, calling for the withdrawal of US-led foreign forces from Afghanistan and the formation of an ultra-conservative Islamic government. .
Mohammed Fazl, a former top Taliban commander, has been appointed to the movement's political bureau in Qatar, which should strengthen his bargaining power.
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DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
The prospects for a serious dialogue improved last week when the Taliban appointed five senior officials to their political posts in Qatar following two rounds of talks between the United States and the Taliban in recent months. . Among the appointments is a former senior military commander, Mohammed Fazl, who is expected to prove himself among the ranks of the Taliban and strengthen the bargaining power of the office, say those who know the reason for the change.
In September, the Trump administration called on senior envoy Zalmay Khalilzad to lead the US negotiating effort. The White House hopes to end America's longest war while ensuring that Afghanistan does not become a base for the Islamic State, al-Qaeda and other jihadists who would launch terrorist attacks on the United States. foreign. The United States has suggested phasing out as Afghanistan stabilizes. The Taliban want a deadline for withdrawal.
The Taliban now controls or influences about half of Afghanistan's territory, according to a US government watchdog. A current map of the progress of the war would look like a slice of Swiss cheese, with government-controlled areas, holes and areas controlled or influenced by insurgents, everything else.
In some of these areas, the Taliban set up a ghost government to collect electricity bills and run the schools. Movement leaders have been based in Pakistan since 2001, but some feel safe enough in Afghanistan to spend more time there.
Afghan and US governments estimate that there are 70,000 Taliban, including clandestine and regular and auxiliary fighters. The movement has expanded beyond its Pashtun ethnic base to include Afghans of all ethnicities.
"He is able to implement governance policy over a vast territory from top to bottom," said Ashley Jackson, a researcher who investigated 20 districts controlled at least in part by the Taliban.
In September, the Trump administration tasked a senior envoy, Zalmay Khalilzad, with leading the United States' negotiating efforts with the Taliban.
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BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI / AFP / Getty Images
The Taliban leadership has experienced internal conflicts following the 2015 admission that its founder was dead. The group also has more international ties than ever, especially with former enemies, Iran and Russia.
Taliban fighters continue to prove that they can organize deadly attacks throughout the country, including in the capital Kabul. Although they have not been able to seize major cities or provincial capitals, the deployment of additional forces by the Trump administration last year and the escalation of the American-led air war did not reduce their earnings.
Yet the Taliban seem interested in exploring a peace agreement as a way to suppress Western troops and exploit their position of strength in the negotiations.
"We do not want to prolong this war, but we can fight forever," said a senior Taliban official involved in operations in an interview, adding that he had acknowledged that ordinary Afghans had suffered from the war. "The Americans must present a bold plan, a peace plan that will cover their disaster in Afghanistan."
Taliban hopes of winning a clear military victory have died out with US reinforcements, said Borhan Osman, Afghanistan specialist at the International Crisis Group. The Islamic State's foothold in Afghanistan is also attracting Taliban interest in the negotiations, he said.
"The Islamic State has forced the Taliban to develop a distinct ideology, breaking with global jihadism more clearly than ever before," said Osman. "This new extremist group has pushed the Taliban to think seriously about its political future."
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in July that the Trump administration's approach, which involves an unrestrained commitment of US troops in Afghanistan, has improved the prospects for peace for peace by warning the Taliban that they "can not expect." Many US officials fear Trump's patience to keep the 14,000 US troops in Afghanistan weak.
A group of Taliban militants have gone to areas controlled by the Afghan government to greet the people as a gesture of goodwill during a three-day ceasefire in June.
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muhammad sadiq / EPA / Shutterstock
Most Taliban leaders have concluded that Afghanistan would need US aid to function after any political settlement of the war, said people familiar with the internal group discussions. Until now, the group has not agreed to speak directly to Afghan government officials, considering the Kabul administration as a "puppet" American. Kabul proposed to enter into unconditional Taliban peace talks and to recognize them as a legitimate political group.
While the Taliban assess the direction of the talks with the United States and the Afghan government, they are also engaged in other diplomatic channels.
The Russian Foreign Ministry announced that the Taliban will participate in a summit on the Afghan peace process in Moscow on Friday. The ministry invited India, Iran, Pakistan, China and the United States to send delegations to the meeting. The Afghan government has announced that it will send a contingent to the meeting. The US authorities said they would not do it.
Some members of the group insist that they do not want to return to the harshness and international isolation that characterized their regime in the 1990s. The Taliban, emerged as a movement of mullahs and religious students rural areas, banned music, banned girls from going to school, and forced women to wear the burka, whipping them for letting her ankle appear a little.
The Taliban still want amendments to the Afghan constitution and laws that reflect their purist version of Islam. Taliban leaders may have reconciled with women who study and work, but they still demand that they be fully covered and separated in public.
"Women's rights are acceptable, but we can not say that both sexes are equal," said the Taliban top official. "We are not telling the US what their laws should be, nor should they tell us what our laws should be. This concerns Afghans. "
In areas under the control of the Taliban, the group's archives are uneven. They allow girls to go to school in some places, but only until puberty. Women are often forced to have a male chaperone to leave the house.
The Taliban leader since 2016 is Haibatullah Akhundzada, a deeply conservative religious authority with no history of fighting. He oversees the group's board of directors, which has approximately 30 members.
After a shaky start, Akhundzada managed to establish leadership by allowing other leaders and key groups to make their voices heard. Under his command, Muhammad Yaqoob, son of Mullah Mohammad Omar, founder of the Taliban, enjoys immense prestige within the movement. He is one of his two deputies.
According to the Western intelligence services, some leaders go there, including Mullah Yaqoob, thanks to their territorial gains in Afghanistan. Others, including military chief Sadar Ibrahim and chief financial officer Gul Agha Ishaqzai, spend much of their time there, especially in the southern province of Helmand. This takes them away from the intrusive hand of some elements of Pakistani intelligence.
The White House urges Pakistan to play a constructive role in talks with the Taliban. Islamabad, which denies US accusations of hosting the group, has long been calling for a political settlement with the Taliban. The new Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan, has been calling for American soldiers to leave Afghanistan for years, saying there is no military solution.
The role of the Haqqani Network, a militant group allied with the Taliban and responsible for numerous attacks in Kabul, is another source of concern for the US and Afghan governments. A person close to the network said that it would not block a peace agreement.
According to the experts, the Taliban unit, largely maintained throughout its existence and illustrated by a three-day ceasefire this summer, is notable for an insurgency. This suggests that leaders could enforce any signed peace agreement.
"The Taliban have a strong command and control over a national ceasefire that tens of thousands of fighters have obeyed," said Johnny Walsh, former senior advisor to the Afghan peace process. US State Department.
-Ehsanullah Amiri in Kabul contributed to this article.
Write to Saeed Shah at [email protected] and Craig Nelson at [email protected]
