[ad_1]
In last week's message, I considered week 7 as the week we would start learning Georgia. Now comes the week we begin to learn more about Michigan. The Wolverines have been one of the top five teams since leaving South Bend with a first-week loss, but Jim Harbaugh's record against his rivals set his mandate as both impressive and disappointing. And here are the rivals.
While Harbaugh is technically 1-0 at East Lansing as Michigan's head coach – his two defeats against the Spartans have come to Ann Arbor – the line for this match (hovering somewhere around Michigan -7.5) must make you nervous, is not it? he? Michigan State lives to cover (and usually beats) its so-called superior competition in the Big Ten East, and Michigan lives to disappoint Michigan State.
Winning is all that matters, but if Michigan really covers, this could be a sign that this UM team has really, really done things and can scare Ohio State. Or, you know, it's the same old, the same old man. We will see.
Below you will find FBS choices and projections using the S & P + projections, which are listed in their entirety for the 130 FBS teams.
See the bottom of the article for more details on this subject.
The gap (shown in parentheses) is indicated next to the S & P + choice for each match. The bold team is projected to beat the gap. (In most books, there is no mailing list for FCS games.) When S & P + predicts a tie or an impulse (a tie with Vegas, by and large), I list the choice on the side that S & P + would choose if the teams could score in decimals..
I must say that this week's lines are creepy if you are really looking to make money. I'm not sure I've ever seen so many games with matching lines and projections. Wazzu (-3) by 3.1 on Oregon? Ohio (-16.5) by 16.51? Are you kidding me?
This document divides the games (and the performances of the season of S & P + so far) in their decimal glory. This year, I included and also monitors the total selections (plus / minus).
- Arkansas State 36, Georgia State (+14) 23 (October 18, 7:30 pm, ESPNU)
- State of Boise 40, State of Colorado (+23.5) 19 (October 19, 9 pm, ESPN2)
- Stanford 31, State of Arizona (+2.5) 29 (October 18, 9 pm, ESPN)
- UNLV (+10) 29, Air Force 29 (October 19, 22h, CBSSN) (Real projected score: UNLV 28.7, Air Force 28.6)
Stanford is not ranked and has lost two games in a row, but the Cardinal still has a decisive advantage over Oregon and qualifies for Washington and Washington State in the coming weeks. The title Pac-12 North always passes through Palo Alto … unless the cardinal loses to Herm Edwards and his company.
- No. 3 Clemson 35, No. 16 State NC (+17) 21 (October 20, 3:30 pm ET, ESPN)
- No. 5 LSU 26, No. 22 State of Mississippi (+7) 24 (October 20, 7 pm, ESPN)
- No. 6 Michigan (-7.5) 29, No. 24 Michigan State 20 (October 20, 12:00 pm, Fox)
- No. 25 Washington State (-3) 36, No. 12 Oregon 33 (October 20 at 7:30 pm, Fox time, Fox) (Current projected score: Wazzu 35.8, Oregon 32.7)
With Play day in town, it will be a day party in Pullman. The game could be just as fun, and it's almost in the spotlight at night. Assuming that Stanford did not ruin everything, the winner of Wazzu-Oregon could be your favorite of the Pac-12 North.
- No. 1 Alabama 45, Tennessee (+29) 21 (October 20, 3:30 pm ET, CBS)
- No. 2 Ohio State 39, Purdue (+13.5) 29 (October 20, 7:30 pm, ABC time)
- No. 9 Oklahoma (-8.5) 37, TCU 25 (Oct 20, 12 noon, ABC)
- No. 10 UCF (-21.5) 40, East Carolina 14 (October 20, 7 pm, ESPN2)
- No. 14 Kentucky (-11.5) 33, Vanderbilt 17 (October 20, 7:30 pm ET, SECN)
- No. 15 Washington 35, Colorado (+15.5) 20 (October 20 at 3:30 pm ET, Fox)
- No. 18 Penn State 35, Indiana (+15) 20 (October 20, 3:30 pm ET, ABC) (Actual projected score: PSU 34.6, IU 20.2)
- No. 19 Iowa (-9.5) 31, Maryland 21 (October 20, 12 noon, ESPN2)
- Temple 25, # 20 Cincinnati (+3) 24 (October 20, 12:00 noon, ESPNU)
- No. 21 USF (-34) 51, Connecticut 17 (Oct 20, 7 pm, CBSSN) (Current projected score: 51.5 USF, 17.0 UConn)
- No. 23 Wisconsin 46, Illinois (+25) 21 (October 20, 12 noon, FS1) (Current projected score: UW 45.8, Illinois 21.4)
Tua Tagovailoa was promoted likely against Tennessee with her knee sprained. This probably means a lot more for betting than for "who will win?"
- Auburn 31, Ole Miss (+4) 30 (October 20, 12:00 pm, ESPN)
- California (-7) 32, Oregon State 23 (October 20, 4 pm, Pac-12)
- Duc 29, Virginia (+7) 24 (October 20, 12:30 pm, Paris time, ACCN)
- Florida State 28, Wake Forest (+10.5) 23 (October 20 at 3:30 pm, Paris time, ESPN2)
- Minnesota (+3.5) 27, Nebraska 25 (October 20 at 3:30 pm, New York time)
- Northwestern 31, Rutgers (+20) 18 (October 20, 12h, BTN)
- Syracuse 32, North Carolina (+9.5) 23 (October 20, 12:20 pm ET, CACN)
- Texas Tech (-18.5) 40, Kansas 21 (October 20 at 3:30 pm Eastern Time, FS1)
- UCLA 31, Arizona (+8) 26 (October 20, 22:30 ET, ESPN2)
- Utah 27, USC (+7) 23 (October 20, 8 pm, Pac-12)
Nebraska Cornhuskers of Scott Frost had to work hard enough to stay without a win. S & P + sees NU as a 3-3 team after statistically improbable losses against Colorado, Troy and especially North West. They will surely win next week against Bethune-Cookman, but they are also favored against visiting Minnesota. S & P + is higher than you think on NU … but the Gophers always win this one.
- Akron 27, Kent State (+5) 27 (October 20, 3:30 pm ET, ESPN +)
- State of the Appalachians 47, UL-Lafayette (+25.5) 23 (October 20, 3:30 pm ET, ESPN +)
- Arkansas 31, Tulsa (+7) 25 (October 20, 12 pm ET, SECN)
- Army 30, Miami (Ohio) (+7.5) 29 (October 20, 12:00, CBSSN)
- Buffalo (-1) 35, Toledo 30 (October 20, 12 noon, ESPN +)
- East Michigan (-3) 32, Ball State 24 (Oct 20, 3 pm, ESPN +)
- Florida International 39, Rice (+24) 19 (October 20, 7:30 pm ET, ESPN +)
- State of Fresno (-13) 36, New Mexico 21 (October 20 at 7:30 pm Eastern Time, ESPNU)
- South Georgia (-11) 34, State of New Mexico 23 (October 20, 6 pm, AggieVision) (Actual projected score: GS 34.1, NMSU 22.9)
- Hawaii 33, Nevada (+3) 33 (20th of October at 23:59, stadium) (Actual projected score: UH 33.1, UNR 32.9)
- Houston (-12) 41, Marine 26 (October 20 at 3:30 pm, Paris time, CBSSN)
- Louisiana Tech 37, UTEP (+23.5) 17 (October 20, 3:30 pm ET, ESPN +)
- Marshall (+3) 31, Florida Atlantic 28 (Oct. 20 at 2:30 pm Eastern Daylight Time, Facebook)
- Massachusetts 39, Coastal Carolina (+3) 37 (20 October at 15.30 Brussels time, ELVN)
- Middle Tennessee 32, Charlotte (+16.5) 20 (October 20, 3 pm, ESPN3)
- Missouri 34, Memphis (+10) 34 (October 20, 4 pm ET, SECN) (Actual projected score: Mizzou 34.3, Memphis 33.9)
- North Texas (+1.5) 27, UAB 27 (October 20th at 7:30 pm, beIN) (Actual projected score: 26.8 UNT, 26.7 UAB)
- Ohio (-16.5) 48, Bowling Green 32 (Oct 20, 2 pm, ESPN3) (Actual projected score: Ohio 48.39, BGSU 31.88)
- San Diego State 35, State of San José (+28) 10 (October 20 at 10:30 pm, Paris time, CBSSN)
- Miss South (-17.5) 31, UTSA 13 (Oct 20, 7 pm, ESPN +)
- Tulane (-7) 32, May 23 (October 20 at 3:30 pm, Paris time, ESPNU)
- UL-Monroe 29, State of Texas (+10.5) 27 (October 20, 7 pm, ESPN3)
- State of Utah (-15.5) 37, Wyoming 20 (October 20, 2:30 pm, MWC video)
- Western Kentucky 31, Old Dominion (+5) 28 (October 20, 7:30 pm ET, ESPN +)
- West Michigan (-4) 30, Central Michigan 23 (October 20, 3 pm, ESPN +)
If you can find beIN on your cable lists, tune into North Texas-UAB during Oregon-Wazzu or Ohio State-Purdue commercials. It could be a doozy.
- Liberty 25, Idaho State 9 (Oct 20, 2 pm, ESPN3)
After last week's surprise win over Troy, Liberty is 3-3 and the Flames' chances of reaching the cup stand at 76%. However, the Idaho State is not quite unique: the Bengals are 4-2 and a solid 135th place in the Sagarin rankings, just six places in the Liberty.
Every year, I publish weekly S & P + selections to confirm the validity of the ratings. I use my S & P + system in addition to most of my analyzes, and the selections are a way to show that he usually knows what he is talking about.
S & P + tends to hit between 50% (meh) and 54% (excellent) against the gap year by year. He's not always the best performer, but he keeps up.
And beyond the choices, it goes further than any other set of academic football scans on the market. You can go into granular details regarding the strengths and weaknesses of a team in a way that does not allow it. (See the annual statistical profiles of the team as proof.)
Source link