Until where could the new leader of Brazil bring the country?

RIO DE JANEIRO – During his far-right campaign for the Brazilian presidency, Jair Bolsonaro made a simplistic speech and fired electronic missives providing insight into his Brazilian transformation plan: more police making use of deadly force; "Traditional family" values ​​taught in schools; the Venezuelan socialist government "destroyed".

"We will change the destiny of Brazil," said Bolsonaro, president elected Sunday in Brazil, the largest country in Latin America.

On Monday, supporters and opponents asked a crucial question: now that Bolsonaro has won, what will he do – what can he do – when he takes office on January 1?

Analysts believe that Bolsonaro may be able to pass a surprising number of measures, or even important laws, relatively quickly. As he pledged to do, his administration could decide what types of books Brazilian schoolchildren would read or apply the soft pedal environmental protection measures.

But the uprooting of the political class in these elections gave him not only a mandate, but a new alliance in the Congress of evangelical, pro-gun and agro-industrial legislators. They seem to want to give him the majority in the lower house and eventually in the Senate. Although not overwhelming enough to immediately impose a radical constitutional change, this could be enough for a series of new laws.

"There is a set of ideas and proposals that require legislative action, but a whole other group, which is about behavior and culture change," said Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at the Getulio Foundation. Vargas de Sao Paulo. "It's less limited by law. What is the reaction when the police shoot to kill on sight? If the president sets the tone, you create a cultural change. "

[Bolsonaro wins the Brazilian presidency]

Globally, Bolsonaro seems ready to tip Brazil's foreign policy far to the right, according to the growing group of nationalist leaders, including a man whom he has praised for his model – President Trump.

Bolsonaro announced his intention to follow the United States by moving the Brazilian Embassy to Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. He fought with Brazil's main trading partner, China. More importantly, he has promised tough new sanctions against socialist Venezuela.

Most Latin American leaders have rejected the notion of foreign military intervention in the country, a notion suggested by the Trump administration and that most analysts consider improbable. But some experts say that Bolsonaro, a disgusting socialist, is a joker.

"We agreed that Brazil and the United States would work closely together in the areas of trade, the military and everything else!", Tweeted Trump on Monday, after a call to congratulate Bolsonaro for his victory .

Ecologists feared Monday the advent of an economic boom on Brazilian land, important globally and environmentally sensitive. Bolsonaro and his advisers have outlined plans for the construction of power plants in the Amazon, the world's largest rainforest, and the opening of more indigenous land to the mining industry.

The greatest strength that holds Bolsonaro may be the world opinion. His suggestion to follow in Trump's footsteps and pull Brazil out of the Paris climate change agreement provoked such an international reaction that Bolsonaro came back on this threat last week.

[LGBT Brazilians on edge after Bolsonaro election]

According to experts, the Bolsonaro administration could grant new licenses and interpret existing laws to allow more economic activities in the Amazon, including mining.

"According to what he said up to now, the Bolsonaro presidency could be an environmental disaster for Brazil and the planet," said Stephan Schwartzman, director of the Tropical Forests Fund. defense of the environment.

Bolsonaro praised the evangelical vote with his vow to "defend the innocence of children in school", claiming that leftist tendencies had led to the teaching of homosexuality in the halls of class and dismissed traditional values. Bolsonaro is expected to hire a retired general as Minister of Education. A major curriculum change would require legislation, but its administration will have great capacity to decide what kind of texts and other reading materials Brazilian children read in schools.

"He can not create classes on traditional families, but of course he can, for example, set up a minister of education who has this content in mind and who sets the tone for what is taught in schools. schools, "said Lucas de Aragão, director of Arko Advice, a political risk company in Brasilia.

Bolsonaro called on police to use lethal force to fight a record wave of violent crime and homicide. Rather than by law, it could seek to enter into tactical agreements with state governors in order to free itself from the police, which could lead to more deadly clashes in the short term in a country where the murder rate by police was already high. He may also seek to deploy the army – as it has already done in the state of Rio de Janeiro – to pacify violent slums; an agreement that would simply require the cooperation of the states and the federal government.

Pro-gun proponent, stocks of domestic arms manufacturers increased as Bolsonaro climbed in polls. He says he wants Brazilians to be able to defend themselves against criminals alone. Experts say it will likely have the support needed to pass legislation that will make it easier for Brazilians to buy and carry weapons.

One of Bolsonaro's most controversial threats is his vow to imprison leftists. It's perhaps also one of his more inactive, at least early. Brazil has an independent judiciary that could possibly block arrests for political reasons.

Still, Bolsonaro could use his post to exert pressure and influence cases – for example, when and if former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the leftist party that led Brazil from 2003 to 2011, will be released from prison. Lula, as she is called, is currently serving a 12-year prison sentence for corruption. Bolsonaro said Lula "would rot" in prison.

Bolsonaro also said that he would ban radical groups – such as the massive landless movement, which has challenged rural occupied land. According to experts, this would require the authority of Congress to declare such groups of terrorist organizations. But it is not impossible.

Bolsonaro – a staunch supporter of the former military dictatorship – tried Sunday to appease his fears of being an authoritarian leader.

"This government will defend the constitution, democracy and freedom," he said. "It's a promise that does not come from a party, or the hollow words of a man, it's an oath before God."

Read more:

Bolsonaro wins in Brazil

UN chief congratulates Brazil on election

How the unthinkable happened in Brazil

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