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* Severe thunderstorm up. at 10 pm | Flash flood shows 3 to 9 hours *
2:25 pm – Severe storm warning for the area around Manassas
A violent storm in east central Fauquier County, about 10 miles to the # 39, east of Warrenton, moves northeast in the general direction of Haymarket and Manassas. These storms could produce gusts of wind up to 60 mph and would arrive around 3:15 pm, when the warning will expire.
This isolated storm is distinct from the main activity planned for the area between 5 pm and 10 pm as discussed below.
13:52 – Severe storm watch issued, runs up to 22 hours.
The National Weather Weather issued a strong storm warning for the entire region. He warns that storms can produce wind gusts of up to 65 mph and a few cases of large hail about 1.5 inches in diameter. A watch means that the conditions are favorable for violent storms, but not a guarantee. But if a warning is issued for your location, it means that a storm is imminent or occurs and you should look for shelter in a strong building.
In addition to the threat of wind and hail, flash flooding is a major concern. below.
Original article of 13:04 (Expired storm updated at the bottom of this post)
The air is thick and the soil soggy. While a vigorous front eliminates the moisture of the sky and throws it violently on our sodden terrain, the wind and flood risks can become a real problem for the region tonight.
Severe to strong thunderstorms with torrential rains and strong winds expected between about 5pm and 10pm C & # 39; is a situation where some regions may experience a violent blow, while others are most of the time left out. But given all the recent rains, our region is vulnerable.
The saturated soil and the potential deluge prompted the National Meteorological Service to issue a flash flood alert for the entire region. Soils are so submerged that only half a second of extra rain is needed to tilt parts of the area into a flooded state. The weather service indicates that the most affected areas can see 2 to 3 inches in a short time.
Motorists during the evening rush hour and a bit later will have to be vigilant to quickly stop on the roads. During heavy rains and immediate consequences, avoid roads near creeks and streams that can overflow in a hurry, increasing from 5 to 10 feet in minutes. According to the National Weather Service, the rise of Four Mile in Alexandria increased by 6.3 feet in 11 minutes, according to the National Weather Service.
If you encounter a flooded road, turn around – the water level is often difficult to judge and a stranded vehicle endangers passengers and first responders.
In addition, the sodden soil has weakened tree roots to the point that even gusty winds, 40 to 50 mph, can cause more trees to fall than normal. This means moving to the lowest floor of a home if you hear the wind getting up and being prepared for power outages.
Dashboard of Storms
Approximate Time of Arrival of Storms:
- Interstate 81 area: 4 to 7
- West of Beltway: 5 pm to 9 pm [19659022] District and Inner Belt: 1800 to 2200
- Beltway East: 1800 to 2300
(Isolated storms may form earlier.) 81
Temp. From temperature: 45 minutes
Measurable rainfall in any location: 60%
Rainfall: West to East
Probable effects of the storm: Heavy rain, lightning, strong winds, flash floods [19659030] Possible effects of the storm: Unstoppable wind gusts, small hail
Very small chance of: Isolated tornado, large hail
Rain potential: Average of 0.5 to 1.0 inches, over 39, west, but very variable. Localized quantities of 2 to 3 inches are possible
HRRR simulation of total rainfall, but this is only illustrative and the localized quantities will vary considerably
Discussion
This afternoon and tonight, a cold front is slowly approaching the DC west region, accompanied by a disturbance in the upper atmosphere that will increase the wind speed in the middle and upper levels of the 39; atmosphere. In addition, the jet stream at altitude will be aligned to improve the lifting of air over the Mid-Atlantic.
With a lot of sun and a low humid atmosphere, the atmosphere is expected to be destabilizing at quite significant levels by mid-afternoon. The unstable atmosphere, combined with rising winds, and rising along the front, will set the stage for some severe to severe storms.
High resolution prediction models, in general, develop these storms first on the mountains and uplands. in the west, in the middle of the afternoon. From 5 pm to 6 pm, a broken line of showers and storms advance in the far western suburbs, then through the D.C. and Baltimore metro corridor around 7 pm or 8 pm. The line should be narrow and not be continuous.
Simulated radar loop of storms between 16 h. and midnight. It is a model so that the timing and location of the storms probably differ from them.
With abundant floating energy (unstable atmosphere), updrafts will be strong and wind shear will increase the strength and organization of the storm.
Some of the integrated storm cells could produce destructive winds, intense lightning and small to medium hail. We anticipate that these storms will organize in clusters for longer life, and that some may even display supercell type characteristics for a short time. This would mean the potential for larger hail (possibly the size of a golf ball), microburst and / or a brief tornado.
Updates of expired storms
13h42. – Severe thunderstorm likely on the way
We are already seeing a strong storm developing northwest of Fredericksburg and the National Weather Service says that there is a 80% chance that it will be overhead. a violent storm is emitted for the region. "Severe gusts of wind and lightly severe hail will be possible with the strongest storms," said the meteorological service in a statement
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