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When the New York Times announced earlier this month that President Trump had met with Venezuelan military officers dissatisfied with the country's government to discuss a coup against Nicolas Maduro, some observers of the events in that American country South have probably climbed. The implications of US military intervention in Venezuela would be too severe for comfort. In fact, this could aggravate an already widespread crisis at the regional level. In addition to aggravating the crisis, a tougher blow for Venezuela could well put Washington aside with Beijing.
An expert in international relations at the University of Kent recently wrote in an article for The Conversation: "If it succeeds, Trump's coercive approach could have serious consequences for an increasingly regional crisis."
Rubrick Biegon pointed out that this was not the first time Washington had taken such an uncompromising stance on Caracas, recalling the George W. Bush administration's involvement in an attempted regime change against Hugo Chavez in the early 2000s The attempt eventually cemented Chavez's accession to power, and the likelihood of this repetition is just as high: Latin Americans, it's fair to say, are not the biggest fans of Trump in the world, and that double for Venezuela.
But there is another danger if the Trump administration decides to go ahead with military involvement: relations between the United States and China could also be affected.
China is the most generous supporter of the Maduro government. This month, Beijing has agreed to extend a $ 5 billion lifeline in Caracas. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said: "The domestic situation is improving and the Venezuelan government is actively promoting economic and financial reforms.
This is a strong indication that Beijing would not accept a forced regime change in Venezuela, even though the Venezuelan crude is being sharply reduced, especially with sanctions against Iran less than two months away. Related: Canada boosts oil exports to the United States
In a sense, it is oil, as are many conflicts. Some observers have argued that Washington's hostility to Caracas was motivated by the desire to take control of the world's largest oil reserves in the US hinterland. Despite numerous reports that President Trump is considering the suspension of Venezuelan oil imports, he has not yet kept his promises, partly because of the humanitarian implications of such a measure and partly because it is still necessary.
At the same time, China is pursuing its own energy security by expanding its presence in the oil fields around the world. Venezuela is a natural focal point for such expansion. During his visit to Beijing this month, President Maduro said Venezuela would increase its crude oil exports to China to one million barrels a day, thanks to $ 5 billion from China. In addition, the head of CNPC will soon travel to Venezuela to finalize negotiations on increasing oil exports. At 1 million bpd, they would make up almost everything Venezuela currently produces, 1.2 million bpd.
China has already spent US $ 65 billion in financial aid for Caracas over the past decade. Much has been repaid, but Caracas still owes some $ 20 billion to his ally. Any attempt by Washington to force a regime change and reduce China's access to Venezuelan oil would provoke a quick reaction.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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