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November 13, 2018
November 13, 2018, University of Colorado at Boulder
As global temperatures climb, warmer winters in parts of the country may be the scene of a violent attack of such violent attacks as robbery, according to a new CIRES study. Credit: Tony Webster / Wikimedia Commons
As global temperatures climb, warmer winters in parts of the country may be the scene of a violent attack of such violent attacks as robbery, according to a new CIRES study.
"During mild winters," said Ryan Harp, a CIRES / CU Boulder Ph.D. student and lead author of the study published today in the AGU's cross- disciplinary journal, GeoHealth.
In an innovative new assessment, Harp and his advisor, Kris Karnauskas Fellowes, used powerful climate analysis techniques to investigate the relationship between year-to-year fluctuations in climate and violent crime rates in US cities since 1979. Their methods accounted for the fact that crime rates have dropped significantly since the 1990s in most places. These long-term trends, driven by many societal factors, create the "baseline" for the new analysis. "Consequently," said Karnauskas, "who is also an Associate Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder.
He and Harp get certified by the FBI, specifically the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program. The database, which was snail-mailed to Karnauskas from the West Bank, included all types of violent crimes including murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft. NOAA's North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR).
They divide data up by broad climate regions in the United States, and then measure the strength of the relationship between climate variables and crime in each region.
Combining these data sets revealed a strong relationship between crime and temperature, in particular, a much stronger correlation in winter than in summer months. For example, in winter in the United States, the relationship was so much that it could not be expected In the summer, the relationship between temperature and crime patterns diminished.
The relationship between temperature and crime in winter. Credit: University of Colorado at Boulder
The strength of the wintertime correlation was surprising, Harp said, given that crime rates vary for all kinds of reasons.
"It's highly unusual to find correlations this high in big, messy data sets, especially spanning disciplines like climate and health or sociology. The initial disbelief forced us to recheck our work, "Karnauskas added.
Part of the power in the new research approach, he and Harp said, was "zooming out" from a city-by-city approach to climate change. Where researchers study a single city, a local change in, for example, policing or demographics might have made it harder to pick out the impact of temperatures on crime. By aggregating thousands of cities in a region that has similar experiences of year-to-year fluctuations, the connection between temperature and crime became obvious.
The new assessment also provides insight into the problem of climate change, the effects of climate change, and the effects of climate change. The Routine Activities Theory. That theory states that despite the fact that it has a relatively simple combination of ingredients, a suitable target, and the absence of a guardian that could prevent a violation. So pleasant weather can increase the chances of all three factors converging; lousy weather may decrease it.
In addition to Routine Activities is the Temperature-Aggression Hypothesis, which suggests that people act more aggressively in extreme heat. Because Harp and Karnauskas found that the relationship between the temperature and the crime rate is so low, which is what we are seeing, Harp said. During mild winters, the people are more often than not, creating the opportunity for interaction.
These findings imply that in some regions of the United States, warming temperatures may be exacerbated, especially in winter, Harp said. He and his colleagues are now dissecting data and building models with an eye to predicting future crime rates, as well as how to be affected by the world's changing climate.
"This study is significant because it broadens our thinking on connections between climate and human health, to encompass a very real and dangerous threat to our bodily safety and, therefore, health," said Karnauskas.
Explore further:
When temperatures rise, so do crime rates: evidence from South Africa
More information:
Ryan D. Harp et al, The Influence of Interannual Climate Variability on Regional Violent Crime Rates in the United States, GeoHealth (2018). DOI: 10.1029 / 2018GH000152
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