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Dan Balz
Senior Correspondent for National Policy, the Presidency and the Congress
Three weeks before mid-term critical elections, voters showed a much greater interest in the ballot than it was four years ago, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll. Enthusiasm is up in almost all demographic groups, but increases are greater among young adults, non-white voters, and those who say they are in favor of Democrats in the House.
At the same time, President Trump's approval rose five points after reaching a record high in August, although Democrats retain a double-digit advantage over general congressional support, the survey reveals.
Four years ago, mid-term voter turnout dropped to its lowest level in more than half a century. Republicans were able to capitalize by expanding their majority in the House and taking control of the Senate. Today, while the majority of the GOP is in danger and tight Senate elections will determine who will control this assembly in January, a majority of 77% of registered voters say they are certain to vote next month or have already voted against 65 today. Majority percentage in post-ABC polls from October 2014.
The certainty of voting increased by 32 points for women under 40 compared to 2014. It increased by 17 points for men and women aged 18 to 29. Of the non-white registered voters, 72% are now certain to vote, compared to 48% in the post-ABC polls of October 2014. White men without a university degree represent the highly Republican group whose certainty of voting is lower than the average and has increased fewer other groups since 2014. In contrast, white women with a university degree earn 15 points, or 88%. For white women with no degree, the figure is up 12 points.
[[[[Read the results of the post-ABC survey | How was the survey conducted? ]
Of the voters who prefer Democratic candidates in the House, 81% say they are certain to vote, compared to 60% in 2014. Among those who support Republican candidates in the House, enthusiasm is now rising to 76%. %, compared to 73% in October 2014..
The poll provides no definitive answer to the question of how the partisan battle around the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh affected the intensity of voters in both parties. On the one hand, the percentage of Republican voters who are now certain to vote has increased a little more than among Democrats since August. By another, the advantage of the democrats before the fight of the Kavanaugh remains.
Directly polled, 33 percent of registered voters said the Kavanaugh debate made them more likely to support Democrats, while 27 percent said they were more inclined to support Republicans, with a 39 percent majority saying it made no difference. difference. Although the national effects are mixed, the Republicans' overwhelming support for Trump's candidate could be a handicap for Democratic senators who are being re-elected to very heavy Republican states, including West Virginia and North Dakota.
Registered voters say they prefer the Democratic nominee to the House to the Republican candidate by 11 percentage points, from 53% to 42%. That's slightly less than in August, while the Democratic advantage was 14 points. Among the likely voters of the new survey, the margin is 13 points. Historically, this kind of gap suggests that there may be substantial gains for Democrats.
The gender gap remains important, as it has done all year. Among registered voters, women are in favor of candidates in the House of Democrats from 59% to 37%, while men share equally, with 48% of candidates for the Republican Chambers and 46% of Democrats.
Registered voters who describe themselves as independent are in favor of Democrats from 52% to 38%, mainly because of a 2-1 advantage for Democrats among independent women (62% to 29%).
White women with a university degree share between 57% and 42% of Democratic candidates, while white women with no higher education turn to Republicans (49% to 43%).
The increase in the president's approval rate increased this rate to 41%, with 54% of disapproval among all adults. Among registered voters and potential voters in the survey, his approval rate was 43%.
The approval of his treatment of the economy raises to 49%, with 46% of disapproval. This is the first time Trump has received positive net ratings on the economy in post-ABC surveys.
This increase in overall approval has not resulted in similar Republican gains on the generic ballot, as 90% of those who say they disapprove of the president say they are now supporting Democrat House candidates. 83% in August. Of those who approve of the president's performance, 87 percent support candidates for the House GOP – a figure also high in post-ABC polls of this election cycle.
Historically, there has been a close correlation between the approval or disapproval of an incumbent president and the voting intentions of the mid-term elections, which is one of the reasons why Republicans have been eager to see the rating. President's approval increase throughout the year.
The majority of voters believe that the next elections are more important than in the past, as Democrats are more likely to say this than Republicans. From 74% to 61%, registered voters who identify themselves as Democrats or closer to the Democratic Party are more likely than registered voters who identify as Republicans or closer to the GOP to say that these mid-term elections are more important than the previous elections.
The proportion of voters who say they would prefer the next Congress to be in the hands of the Democratic Party as a means of controlling Trump rose from 60% in August to 54% today, while the percentage of those who say want a Republican-controlled Congress to help support the president's agenda went from 34% to 41%. Current levels are similar to those of President Barack Obama on the eve of the mid-term reviews of 2010 and 2014. Democrats suffered losses in both elections.
The majority of Democrats and Republicans say supporting a candidate who shares their views on Trump is an important consideration in their vote. Overall, 58% of voters said it was "extremely" or "very" important, including 63% of Democrats and Democrats and 56% of Republicans and Republicans.
Among adults, Democrats have more confidence than Republicans to face the main problems facing the country, from 45% to 37%. Four years ago, adults separated from 39% to 39% on this issue. In 2006, when the Democrats came to power in the House, their advantage on this issue was 19 points.
Of the six individual problems, Democrats have a marginal to significant lead over five of them, while Republicans have a narrow advantage over one – the economy, from 45% to 41% . Democrats are noticeably better on taxes (45% to 42%).
The democratic advantages over others are all double-digit. They lead 10 points that are more trusted by the party to change the way things work in Washington; 11 points on the appointment of judges to the Supreme Court; 12 points on immigration; and by 26 points who are trusted to treat the equal treatment of men and women.
The economy and health care are at the forefront of voting problems this fall, followed by a change in Washington's operations and equal treatment between men and women, followed by taxes, immigration and the appointment of judges to the High Court.
The Washington Post-ABC News survey was conducted from Monday to Thursday by telephone among a random national sample of 1,144 adults, 65% of whom were on mobile phones and 35% on fixed lines. The margin of error for sampling is 3.5 points for the overall results as well as for the results obtained from 991 registered voters; the margin of error is four points out of a sample of 752 likely voters.
Emily Guskin contributed to this report.
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