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Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine) addresses a crowd of Capitol Hill journalists on Friday. (Melina Mara / The Washington Post)
Again and again, President Trump has been instructed not to do so. A group of counselors, confidants and legislators have all urged – the pleading, really – not to personally attack the women who had accused Brett M. Kavanaugh, a Supreme Court candidate, of being assaulted sexually.
So he did it anyway.
Addressing to thousands of people at a tumultuous gathering in Mississippi, Trump has relied on his visceral sense of the moment and has made fun of Christine Blasey Ford for holes in his memory, directly questioning the credibility of the accuser.
Institutional Republicans first responded with horror. But the thirty-six seconds of Trump's off-script jeremiad were a turning point in the nominee's victory, White House officials and Kavanaugh's allies said. The boosting dynamics behind Kavanaugh was uncertain.
Tuesday night in Southhaven, Miss. Trump attacked Ford with the ruthless attack dog and the rhythm of a comedian. The crowd burst out laughing and applause. Assistants were heard privately as images of the performance were repeatedly rehearsed and played, shifting the national discussion from a careful examination of Kavanaugh's honesty and consumer habits to a doubt about memory. from Ford. And in Washington, Republican senators – though they condemned Trump's mockery of Ford – felt encouraged to aggressively demand Kavanaugh's confirmation, which became a virtual certainty on Friday and should be made official. by a vote Saturday.
"As long as he was ready to go to the carpet for him, it probably fortified people here as well," said Sen. John Thune (S.D.), the third Republican leader of the chamber.
The three-week maelstrom – between the moment Ford shared its story with the Washington Post and the expected confirmation vote on Saturday – merged the country's cultural calculation on sexual aggression with tribal politics, resulting in unjustified consequences. only for the mid-term elections next month, but also for the long-term identities of the two political parties.
Trump was in the center, as always, using his chair of intimidation to defend Kavanaugh and to accuse men everywhere. Initially limiting his fighting impulses and postponing the process to the Senate, the president eventually followed his own guts, as he had been, as one of the assistants put it, "a strategic boogeyman.
According to President Kellyanne Conway's advisor, the result will likely be "a crowning achievement of her presidency".
"If people think of it as an apocalyptic fight, he is the ultimate fighter who does not give up, does not give in and does not retreat, even if there is an avalanche of criticism and perverse reactions from him. ;other side. Said Conway.
President Trump meets Tuesday with his supporters in Southaven, Missouri. (Jonathan Ernst / Reuters)
Yet despite all of Trump's public statements, Kavanaugh's fate-makers were a trio of Senate Republicans with an independent background – Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine and Jeff Flake of Arizona – whose requests for an FBI investigation prolonged the process. also ended up ensuring Kavanaugh's confirmation.
Republican leaders, who for nearly two years have organized Trump's bush fires in the service of a common agenda, have sounded the death knell to realize the wish of the movement: replace the seat in the Supreme Court by a decisive vote , Anthony M. Kennedy, by a conservative ideologue.
The tough approach of the GOP has left Democrats upset and defeated.
"They are successful because they have broken all the rules and standards," said Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.). "They adopted the strategy that the best defense is a good offense."
This portrait of Kavanaugh's cumbersome confirmation process is the result of interviews with more than two dozen Senators, Senate staff, White House representatives and Republican outside advisers, some of whom spoke about under the guise of anonymity, as they were not allowed to discuss in depth. scene machinations.
After three weeks of uncertainty and partisanship, it was Friday's Collins who virtually determined the outcome of the debate in a special 44-minute speech delivered in the Senate.
The moderate Maine had told her to think earlier with a "yes" vote at a procedural vote, before sitting down to lunch with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky .), In the dining room reserved for members.
Collins took provocative notes to Kavanaugh's defense and blasted Liberal activists and senators, who she said never shook the candidate. Although she stated that she found Ford's testimony "sincere, painful and convincing" and that she was confident of having survived a sexual assault, she explained in some detail that she had not seen any witnesses nor any evidence to support his claims that Kavanaugh was the aggressor.
The final words of his speech were those that many GOP leaders were eager to hear: "I will vote to confirm Judge Kavanaugh."
McConnell led the Republican senators – nearly two dozen present – in a standing ovation. One by one, Collins's compatriots celebrated his decision. Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) wrapped Collins in a giant embrace.
Moments later, Senator Joe Manchin III (DW.Va.) became the only Democrat to have declared that he would vote to confirm Kavanaugh and, coupled with Flake's statement of support, guaranteed the ascension. candidate for the Supreme Court.
& # 39; I do not even know it & # 39;
From the moment Kennedy announced his retirement on June 27, the White House realized that the battle to fill his seat would be much harder than that of Judge Neil M. Gorsuch to replace the late Antonin Scalia. Choosing a successor for Kennedy's pivotal seat has given Trump the opportunity to consolidate a conservative majority in court for decades to come – and White House advisers have decided they should mount a vigorous political campaign.
The chief strategist was Donald McGahn, the White House lawyer who had a tumultuous relationship with Trump but rose through the conservative movement.
Trump also understood the issues, said the assistants. The president felt that if he could consolidate the conservative majority of the Supreme Court, this decision alone could make it attractive to Republican voters – especially evangelical Christians – and dispel doubts about how it behaves. .
Trump had no particular personal affinity for Kavanaugh, although a dinner was arranged between the two men and their wives to cultivate a relationship. "I do not even know him," the president told the Mississippi crowd. "So it's not like" Oh, my God, I want to protect my friend. "
Nevertheless, Trump felt invested in Kavanaugh, and he confided to McGahn, with whom the president was barely talking, taking control of this final victory before leaving the White House later this fall .
"Kavanaugh is a type of institution. He was a Bush guy, "said Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-C), referring to the candidate's experience as secretary of the White House staff headed by President George W. Bush. "There were a lot of twists, you know -" Do not go [down] "That's not the reason you won," he said, "Wait a minute, I want to pick the best people to be on the field, and he said he's incredibly impressed by his past, Kavanaugh's group. "
On 27 September, Brett M. Kavanaugh, a Supreme Court candidate, testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee (Andrew Harnik / Pool / EPA-EFE / Shutterstock).
McGahn built a war room on the fourth floor of Eisenhower's executive office building, which has about a dozen lawyers, two communications officers and a stable of Kavanaugh's former paralegals. A team of farmers from the Department of Justice conducted research and drafted discussion points. Leonard Leo, a longtime leader of the conservative Federalist Society and, to a lesser extent, Republican attorney William A. Burck, have been key advisers. And a group of well-funded external groups, including Judicial Crisis Network, have worked to improve Kavanaugh's public image through TV and online advertising and alternative media.
The team treated Kavanaugh as a presidential candidate, including choreographing his public movements. When Kavanaugh went to Capitol Hill, McGahn and a group of employees and collaborators accompanied the judge to meetings with senators and set out routes to avoid interactions with protesters.
Even so, even Operation Kavanaugh provoked strong criticism from Capitol Hill's Republican allies and others in Trump's orbit, who at times privately questioned Kavanaugh's selection of him. – even the fighting room's ability to effectively manage a partisan fight.
& # 39; Talk about your heart & # 39;
The story of Kavanaugh's appointment can be told in two parts. Until September 16, he was a Bush milquetoast Republican whose confirmation hearings had not enlivened many things in the country. But that Sunday, when the Washington Post published Ford's detailed account of sexual assault when she and Kavanaugh were teenagers in suburban Maryland, the Supreme Court's candidacy seized the nation, making Kavanaugh a predator with an alcohol problem for some and a folk hero unfairly smeared. for the others.
Ford's initial accusations momentarily shook the White House, which struggled to assess its credibility and the veracity of its claims. The President was immediately advised, including by Conway, not to attack Ford, but to say that she deserved to be heard – a line that he held for several days.
In the next day, Kavanaugh reportedly told her debauchery stories as a schoolboy and former classmate, as well as two other complaints of sexual misconduct: Deborah Ramirez told the New Yorker that Kavanaugh had been exposed to her as an undergraduate student. at Yale University, and Julie Swetnick, represented by her lawyer and potential Democratic presidential candidate, Michael Avenatti, suggested that Kavanaugh had attended parties where women had been raped by a gang.
But the new claims had an unexpected effect: widely believed to be less credible than Ford's allegation of aggression, they gave Kavanaugh's supporters new ammunition to make all the accusations a political success.
Kavanaugh, a former political staffer who had micro-mediated his confirmation process and media coverage of his candidacy, was eager to defend himself publicly – and McGahn, McConnell, Trump and other advisers urged him to make. Kavanaugh and his wife Ashley sat down for a TV interview with Fox News Channel's Martha MacCallum.
Christine Blasey Ford turns a blind eye when she takes an oath before testifying before the Senate Standing Committee on the Judiciary on September 27. (Jim Bourg / REUTERS)
The interview was widely criticized – "objectively a horrible idea," in the words of a White House official. Kavanaugh looked wooden and impartial, clinging only to a few points of discussion, and Trump, a frequent consumer and critic of the news, thought he looked weak and unconvincing.
But the Kavanaugh team felt that Monday's meeting had served its purpose: it was in front of the camera to deny the allegations contained in clips that filled the media void in anticipation of Thursday's Senate testimony. Ford and its president.
"He filled the void," said a second White House official.
Then it was the thunderclap – more than eight hours of testimony in the Senate, first from Ford, then from Kavanaugh, who captivated the nation and even allowed the president to turn fatalism to the excitement of the Kavanaugh's confirmation prospects.
When Ford finally finished, McGahn spoke privately to Kavanaugh, who had not looked at him, urging him to be passionate. "Talk with your heart," McGahn advised the candidate, according to someone who knows their discussion well.
Kavanaugh rushed into the committee room and shouted his opening statement, which he had personally written the night before with the help of a trusted clerk. The extremely provocative performance was so effective in the eyes of his advisors – and, perhaps more importantly, the president – that a group gathered in the offices of Vice President Pence at Capitol Hill began cheering and pumping the fists. Some even had tears in their eyes.
"He pulled his base"
The hearing galvanized activists on both sides and worried senators, including Flake, one of 11 Republicans sitting on the Judiciary Committee, torn between opposing accounts and party loyalty.
Flake, who has repeatedly criticized Trump's rhetoric and positioned himself as the crucial pivotal vote on Kavanaugh's appointment, decided to vote "yes" last Friday to advance Kavanaugh's appointment of the commission to the whole of the Senate.
But Flake was confronted that day in a Senate elevator by two women who accused him in tears of rejecting credible allegations of aggression. He told his colleagues that the FBI should reopen its criminal record investigation to review allegations of sexual misconduct.
Flake, along with Murkowski and Collins, met McConnell and the Republican members of the committee in the prime minister's office to announce that they would not vote to confirm Kavanaugh as long as an FBI investigation did not take place. would not have occurred. The trio defined the scope of the investigation, which would not take more than a week and which, in their opinion, would not include Swetnick's claims.
"How can we stick to credible allegations about everything we expected to hear?" Said Thom Tillis, a member of the Senate of the Judiciary.
McConnell spoke with Trump and convinced him that the only option was to delay a vote and go ahead with the FBI's investigation, according to people close to their conversation.
McConnell understood that Murkowski, who usually keeps his own advice, was the real wild card. After being under personal pressure from survivors of sexual assault from Alaska, she announced Friday morning that she would not vote to confirm Kavanaugh.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) Went to the Senate on Friday. (Melina Mara / The Washington Post)
In the last days of the Kavanaugh battle, Trump's role was primarily public. His associates conceded that the president would not have much influence on the trio of Republicans on the bubble.
"I think that in terms of the people we ultimately win, it's sometimes the least said, it's better," said Thune, referring to Trump's role.
In the election campaign, however, Trump reinforced the partisans' war at his rallies. In Mississippi, the president – already undergoing a New York Times investigation into his family's allegedly fraudulent tax schemes – said the media did not properly review Ford's account and decided to make a commitment.
"How did you come home? "I do not remember," Trump said, restoring Ford's audience. "How did you get here?" I do not remember. "Where is the place?" I do not remember. "It was how many years ago? do not know, I do not know, I do not know. "
The riff lasted less than a minute, but had lasting consequences. Senators whose votes were courted by Kavanaugh said they were shocked by the president's behavior at the protest. But Kavanaugh's allies perceived a clear advantage: an argument from the president who rejected Kavanaugh, discredited Ford and became a clarion call for the Conservatives.
More than two dozen Trump supporters polled at the presidential election rally in Minnesota, said they would not want to be attacked by Ford, fearing they would not have been presidential. Yet many also acknowledged that the President had simply said what many of them thought privately.
"There are things that he says I would not like to say, but I'm going to take it in. Despite everything he's done, I'll take it," said Matthew Hoffland, 24 years old, web developer in Sparta, Wisconsin. "He pulled his base."
Jenna Johnson in Rochester, Minnesota, contributed to this report.
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