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Paul Sonne
National security reporter focusing on US military
VLADIVOSTOK, Russia – From this Pacific port to a 900-mile Siberian training zone, China and Russia send an unambiguous message to Washington on Tuesday: under American pressure, these historic rivals become allies.
In Vladivostok, Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed Chinese President Xi Jinping as the main guest of an annual conference on the Russian Far East. In Siberia, more than 3,000 Chinese soldiers joined Russian soldiers for exercises in which drones, paratroopers, artillery and fighter jets were to be deployed in a simulated battle.
The result: two countries that have long considered themselves potential military adversaries are now partners in confronting the United States.
"The two countries are trying to point out: if the US pushes too far, we will get closer," said Alexander Gabuev, chairman of Russia's Asia Pacific program of the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank.
Washington is waging a trade war with China and imposing increasing sanctions on Russia. The Trump administration has reoriented the US national security strategy towards "big-power competition" with Russia and China, describing the two countries as seeking to "shape a world antithetical to American values and interests."
China's growing tensions with Washington have increased Beijing's value of Russia's military technology and experience, according to analysts. For Putin, Western sanctions make China's economic power more attractive to new allies.
In this photo taken from the video provided by the press service of the Russian Ministry of Defense on 11 September, tanks roll during military exercises in the Chita region of eastern Siberia during the Vostok exercises in Russia. (AP)
"The Chinese are now sending a clear signal: one, they do not see Russia as a threat, which should already be of concern to the United States," said Michael Kofman, senior researcher at CNA, a research funded by the federal government. organization. "They increasingly want to signal that a growing confrontation with the United States will lead them to adopt a more balanced behavior with Russia."
The joint exercises that began on Tuesday are the first time China has joined Russia. annual strategic exercise, a role generally reserved for the closest allies in Moscow. The deepening military ties between Moscow and Beijing, analysts say, give China valuable access to Russia's military technology and Russia's field experience in Syria and Ukraine.
[Pentagon fears it is losing the hypersonic arms race with Russia and China]
In recent years, Russia has begun selling to China some of its most advanced weapons, including the S-400 ground-to-air missile system and the fourth-generation Su-35 fighter plane. Moscow had long feared that China would be a potential opponent and steal technology.
But in the midst of Russia's conflict with the West, these concerns have largely been dispelled. "There is no doubt that international tensions have contributed to the tightening of Russian-Chinese obligations," Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu said in July.
According to Vladimir Frolov, an independent analyst of Moscow's foreign policy, this relationship now represents a "de facto military alliance, deliberately un-codified to maintain ambiguity."
Chinese officials generally avoid talking openly about joining forces with Russia against the United States. But in the run-up to Xi's trip to Vladivostok, China's official media were filled with euphemistic comments praising relations between Moscow and Beijing.
Bilateral trade is booming – it is expected to reach $ 100 billion this year, up from $ 84 billion last year – and countries are strengthening their economic cooperation.
Russia could provide energy to its neighbor, while China could share its know-how in electronic commerce, analysts said. This cooperation was particularly important in the current international environment, they said, referring to President Trump's protectionism.
Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba announced on Tuesday that it would associate with a major Russian oligarch and Russian sovereign fund to expand into Russia.
"This year has been a remarkable year for Sino-Russian relations," a People's Daily columnist wrote, noting that Putin had just visited Beijing and that Xi had awarded his Chinese counterpart the first time.
Yet, according to Feng Yujun, director of the Russian Studies Center of Shanghai Fudan University, the geopolitical goals of the two countries do not coincide. China is trying to integrate into the established international order and promote globalization, he said, while Russia does not want to obey the established order.
"Russia faces many difficulties. His relations with Western countries are deteriorating and his economy is under heavy sanctions, "he said in a telephone interview. "Then Russia hopes to lighten the pressure on it with the help of China, to obtain political and economic advantages, by cons."
In Vladivostok on Tuesday, Xi gave Putin a boost by bringing a delegation of nearly 1,000 Chinese businesspeople and officials to the Eastern Economic Forum, an initiative led by Putin to attract foreign investment in the country. the Asian regions of Asia. After hours of discussions, Putin took Xi to the seafront of the Sea of Japan, where the presidents prepared blini: thin Russian pancakes.
"You and I are working together most closely," Xi told Putin early in their meeting. "I am ready to deepen our exchange of views and close coordination, both today and in the future."
[Opinion: China and Russia’s game of distortion]
China also benefits from deeper relations.
Russian officials have said that this week's war games – which will include Russian, Chinese and Mongolian troops against a separate contingent of Russian soldiers in a simulated battle – will give lessons on Russia's engagement in Syria. The participation in the exercises "will increase the capabilities of our armed forces to counter threats to our security and to learn from the invaluable military experience of the Russian side," said Kui Yanwei, Chinese military attaché to Russia. Ministry in Moscow last week.
Critics of the Trump administration's national security strategy say that by uniting an overtly hostile Russia and a less aggressive China, Washington risks pushing them to further cooperate against the United States.
Administration officials, however, say the strategy responds to the current reality, namely a Russia and a China that are increasingly challenging the world order and developing weapons destined for the United States – leaving the US military to react.
"Long-term competition between the major powers has reappeared as the central challenge to US security and prosperity, demanding difficult priorities and strategic choices," Pentagon spokesman Eric Pahon said in a statement. . "It is increasingly clear that China and Russia want to shape a world compatible with their authoritarian model and, at the same time, co-opt or replace the free and open order that has led to global security and prosperity. since the Second World War.
China and Russia cooperate regularly in bilateral exercises, but this week is the first time Moscow has joined the Chinese forces in its annual strategic exercise. The Russian army usually conducts an exercise of this type every year and rotates between the country's military districts. This year, Vostok ("east") is focusing on the Eastern District and has been announced by the military as the largest since 1981. Approximately 300,000 service members, or more than 1,000 aircraft, are expected to last the weekend. 36,000 tanks and dozens of ships.
Kofman, the NAC researcher, warned that lingering tensions between Russia and China should not lead to conclusions that they will not cooperate in the future. He noted that they could act together against the United States in an arrangement that does not correspond to a formal alliance on paper.
"Throughout history, the great powers have allied themselves against common threats out of necessity, not necessarily because they share ultimate values or goals," Kofman said.
Fifield reported from Beijing. Sound reported from Washington.
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