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Three and out…
One) I’ve been all over the place on this Oregon vs. Washington State game. Forgive me. Immediately after Oregon’s win over Washington, I was certain WSU — rested and playing at home — would win the game in Pullman. Then, I heard Game Day was coming to Pullman, and I was even more certain. Then, a friend told me to study how easily Oregon State moved the ball against the Cougars, and I wasn’t so sure.
Then, I talked with Oregon coach Mario Cristobal, and was certain the Ducks couldn’t lose. Then, I spoke with WSU coach Mike Leach, and changed my mind again.
I’m 9-3 against the spread this season when picking Oregon and Oregon State games. Two of my three losses ATS have come during OSU games. My lone Ducks loss ATS was picking them to beat Stanford several weeks ago. They lost in overtime.
WSU is a three-point favorite, playing at home. Ultimately, for me, this games comes down to the week that Leach’s team got to rest, get healthy and prepare for the Ducks. It’s a big, big weekend for Washington State and Leach, who is more experienced as a head coach than Cristobal. A lot of emotion here. For a lot of the same reasons that I picked Oregon to beat Washington I’m going to pick WSU to beat the Ducks here in a very close game.
I have it something like 37-35, WSU. The Ducks lose the game, but barely cover the spread. I don’t feel great about this one, but I have to get off the fence.
The Pick: Oregon +3… I guess.
Two) Oregon State has a much easier game for me. I love the Beavers, a seven-point favorite at the Westgate Sportsbook, to win the game outright. It just lines up for OSU in so many ways, and I think Jonathan Smith is due.
But I’ll take the seven points as insurance.
The Beavers are rested, coming off a bye, and get a couple of injured players back on both sides of the ball. Cal looked awful last week and kissed its bowl-game hopes goodbye in a 37-7 loss to UCLA. But it wasn’t just that Cal lost, it was how the Bears lost.
Cal’s best offensive players (quarterback Brandon McIlwain and running back Patrick Laird) are struggling for essentially the same reason — McIllwain can’t hurt a defense throwing the ball. Chip Kelly’s defense jammed up the line of scrimmage and feasted on McIllwain mistakes down the field.
McIlwain was 22-for-40 for 168 yards, but he turned the ball over four times against UCLA. He now has 11 turnovers in the last 12 quarters and five of those were returned for defensive touchdowns.
Oregon State will run the ball effectively with Jermar Jefferson and Artavis Pierce. The Beavers defense will look the best it has all season. And OSU snaps its own Pac 12 losing streak by beating a Cal team that has lost 14 straight conference road games.
The Pick: Oregon State +7
Three) I’m told Pac 12 Conference Commissioner Larry Scott will be at the Washington State vs. Oregon game. Too much media exposure for him to skip that one. I had a candid conversation with him this week in which I expressed how frustrated fans are with the conference, included by not limited to the recent fiasco involving officiating.
If you missed the podcast of that interview… listen here. Worthwhile.
I think it’s absurd that Scott wants us to take his word that there were no prior incidences of tampering/influence by a third party when it came to instant replay protocol. Further, I find it odd that he isn’t sure if the policy is even in writing.
Anything more you want me to ask commissioner Scott should I run into him? And don’t give me, “If you win the MegaMillions jackpot, will you buy a clue?” Although, there have been worse things asked.
Scott is acting a lot like a bureaucrat who believes this mess will all go away if enough football gets played. Like, the public should just trust a conference that has raised some serious doubts and move along like nothing happened.
It’s not going away.
Three and out…
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