Waymo could launch its first driverless car service in December

The launch of a commercial mobile phone service will end the intense secrecy surrounding the Waymo program – and research on self-driving in general – since Google started working there 10 years ago. (Bloomberg)

In just a few weeks, humanity could make its first paid trip in the era of driverless cars.

Waymo, the secret subsidiary of Google's parent company, Alphabet Inc., plans to launch the world's first commercial auto service in early December, according to a person familiar with the projects. It will operate under a new brand and compete directly with Uber and Lyft.

Waymo keeps the new secret name until the official announcement, said the person who asked not to be identified because the plans were not made public.

"Waymo has been working on autonomous driving technology for almost 10 years, with safety at the heart of everything we do," the company said in a statement. A spokesperson for Waymo declined to comment on the name of the new service or the timing of the launch. This is a big step forward for autonomous cars, but it will not really be a turning point. Waymo does not expect a glitzy media event, and the service will not show up in an app store anytime soon, according to the person familiar with the program. Instead, things will start modestly – maybe tens or hundreds of licensed runners in the suburbs around Phoenix, covering about 100 square miles. The first wave of customers will likely be from Waymo's Early Rider program, a test group of 400 volunteer families who have been using Waymos for more than a year. Customers who switch to the new service will be released from their non-disclosure agreements, which means that they will be free to talk about it, take selfies and take friends or even members of the media for walks. New customers in the Phoenix area will gradually be integrated as Waymo adds new vehicles to its fleet to ensure a balance between supply and demand.

The launch of a commercial mobile phone service will end the intense secrecy surrounding the Waymo program – and research on self-driving in general – since Google started working there 10 years ago. "This places Waymo really far ahead of everyone," said Nick Albanese, smart mobility analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. "GM is the other leader, and it will probably be in over a year. It is very impressive.

Being first has its advantages. It builds credibility and allows Waymo to create a robust network of vehicles, service centers and support services to keep Uber and Lyft customers at bay. The start of the year also represents approximately $ 80 billion worth of Waymo's tele-assistance service, even before its launch, according to an analysis by six analysts at Morgan Stanley in August.

According to analysts, the opportunities offered by driverless trucking and technology licenses add an additional $ 96 billion in current value. These business segments will continue to be the responsibility of Waymo. The launch of the new brand in December will apply only to the remote monitoring application and aims to differentiate it from other services, according to a person familiar with the company's strategy. However, Waymo's lead is not insurmountable. GM plans to launch a similar recall service since the end of next year, while Tesla, Daimler, Volkswagen and other competitors are not far behind, each with its own approach to solving the technological and social challenges related to the removal of human drivers from the car.

What to expect in december

When Waymo starts its commercial program, emergency cars will be installed in some cars to help customers access the service and take over if necessary, according to the person familiar with the plans. Chrysler Pacifica's heavily modified mini-van fleet will be operating more than 99.9 percent of the time, according to data from Waymo's test program submitted to California's regulators.

Some Phoenix Early Rider volunteers will not switch to the new commercial program, said the person. Instead, they will continue to test new features and offer their comments to the company. For example, volunteers can receive unmanned emergency cars more and more frequently.

Waymo's plan is to sow the seeds of these driverless car programs in different metropolitan areas of the United States and gradually expand outward. It is a cautious, almost painstaking process designed to avoid bad customer experiences and avoidable accidents that could delay a multi-year program. By the time the Waymo service will become a benchmark in the United States, along with industry giants, Lyft or Uber, the company will have mapped and tested every route down to the finest detail. Waymo's turtle approach contrasts sharply with Tesla Inc.'s hare strategy. Elon Musk's pioneering electric car manufacturer is working on a stand-alone approach that would be activated almost simultaneously on a national fleet of several hundred thousand cars.

Waymo's Phoenix program may seem modest compared to this plan, but last week Waymo got permission to start testing driverless cars in Silicon Valley, California, where the autopilot team Tesla is based. Waymo already has dozens of autonomous vans operating in Mountainview's Alphabet X laboratory to provide a daytime taxi service to employees. The next step will be to launch an Early Rider program based on the Phoenix model and launch a commercial program in the Musk yard.

There are other ways to quantify Waymo's initial advantage over rivals. California requires detailed reports of all of the company's test cars, and the results show that Waymo far outstrips competitors testing on public roads in the state. The graph below shows the number of kilometers traveled on average before a human takes control of the car.

How much will it cost?

Waymo is just starting to experiment with pricing models. For now, the program is more about learning to use driverless cars than to earn money safely. At launch, Waymo will offer simple and competitive rates for Uber and Lyft. A view of the Waymo application in July by Bloomberg showed a simplified user interface that resembled Google's browser app, with the additional features of a standard call tracking application.

Pricing may become more nuanced as Waymo collects more data from the commercial program. Once the emergency safety drivers have been removed from the equation and Waymo has found a way to charge for the entertainment and advertising on board the vehicles, analysts expect a drop in rates from based.

Do driverless cars really happen?

During a tour of the Waymo program at the Phoenix in Bloomberg in July, dozens of minivans flew into an uncertain warehouse in Chandler, Arizona. Waymo had just doubled the size of the deposit to nearly 70,000 square feet. A handful of dispatchers managed a fleet of several hundred vehicles and new vans arrived each week.

It could be argued that Waymo's commercial program is just another step in its 10-year development program. After all, there will always be rescue pilots, customers will have to wait, the group will only be able to operate in a small geographical area in which driving conditions are ideal and there are only a few years left before becoming a profitable business and autonomous.

But Waymo has entered into agreements to acquire up to 62,000 Pacifica hybrid mini-vans and 20,000 fully electric I-Pace SUVs to expand its fleet in the coming years. There are already test cars on the road that already carry passengers without a driver and, starting next month, Waymo's new service will start selling trips to its first real customers. The age-old puzzle game about how long it will take for cars to drive is over. The best question now: how long will it take for me to join?

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