We are alone in the universe – Quartz

Extraterrestrial life should be everywhere. The abundance of stars in the universe (the number far exceeds the total number of each grain of sand on each beach of the Earth) suggests that somewhere a clever form of life should heat up on a distant planet. Even though life rarely evolves, AND should phone.

Yet in appearance, humanity seems to fly solo in our galaxy, and perhaps the universe. Many solutions have been proposed to solve this puzzle, known as the Fermi paradox. The extraterrestrials are hiding. They went into suspended animation until more favorable conditions arose. A big filter makes the leap from "life" to "intelligent life" improbable, if not impossible. They blew themselves up.

Researchers at the Institute of the Future of Mankind of Oxford University have another answer. It is likely that intelligent life does not exist at all, outside the Earth.

In an article submitted to the Proceedings of the Royal Society of London (it appeared online this month on the Arxiv pre-publication site), the researchers write that there is "a substantial ex ante probability of l & # 39; 39, absence of other intelligent life in our observables. universe, "and we should not be surprised if we do not detect any sign of it.In other words, it is not necessary to speculate on the fate of the aliens.It is likely that & # 39; They have never existed, they say in the paper, entitled "Dissolve the Fermi Paradox".

The Fermi paradox derives from a question posed by physicist Enrico Fermi at a luncheon in 1950 at the National Laboratory of Los Alamos, in the state of New Mexico. According to Scientific American, a group of scientists was discussing a New York cartoon showing extraterrestrials coming out of a spaceship, on the streets of New York. "Where is everyone?" Asked Fermi. Most likely, he was questioning about the possibility of an interstellar trip, but later reports suggested that he was casting doubts about the existence of extraterrestrials themselves, according to Scientific American.

In any case, scientists have been trying to answer Fermi's question since. Many of the most rigorous attempts were built on a postulation known as the Drake equation. There are many unknowns, but the equation suggests that it is plausible that thousands of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations could roam the Milky Way based on the probability of seven factors. L & # 39; s equation:

• N: total of extraterrestrial civilizations detectable in the Milky Way
• R *: rate of star formation per year
• fp: fraction of stars with planets
• ne: planets of terrestrial type (or otherwise habitable) by system with planets
• fl: fraction of these planets with life
• fi: fraction with life that develops intelligence
• fc: fraction of detectable / contactable intelligent civilizations
• L: Average longevity of these detectable civilizations

Previously, most estimates using the Drake equation spat out a single number. The recent study sought to make a more informed estimate, building on our latest knowledge in biology, chemistry and cosmology, and, instead of assigning a specific number for each variable, using a probability distribution (a range) most likely scenarios.

When they did, they discovered that the possibility that we are alone in the galaxy is much higher than you think, given the truly gigantic number of possible residential planets. The authors claim that the chance that humanity is alone among the smart civilizations in our galaxy is 53% to 99.6%, and across the observable universe is 39% to 85%.

Since Fermi's "paradox" only exists if we confidently believe that there are extraterrestrial civilizations, this uncertainty suggests that we can be the only ones lucky – and, therefore, there is has no paradox as such. "We should not be really surprised to see an empty galaxy," write the authors. But do not give up entirely. Drake's equation, at best, simply gives us a way to formalize what, for the moment, is unknowable. It's a big universe.