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Our weekly Waiver Wire column covers all the big items, but the Deep Dive is geared towards leagues with intensive release groups. In this column, we will focus on players who are less than a third (33%) in the NFL.com leagues. Fantasy Football is an avant-garde game, and we will strive to stay one step ahead of the competition in the weekly Deep Dive, with players to add, drop and hide on your bench.
Right now, the thread should to be pretty thin in most leagues. There are only two teams, Washington and Carolina, at the end of Week 4. In this week's Deep Dive, I will focus more on the players to bail out in your leagues and why it's time to panic about Andrew Luck:
Players to add:
Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (93% available)
Andy Dalton is the quietest low-end starter in fantasy football, with QB15 (IND), QB8 (vs. BAL) and QB13 (CAR). Dating back to the time when Bill Lazor took over as offensive coordinator in the third week of 2017, Dalton has earned several points in 12 of his last 16 games. During this period, Dalton launched 33 TD total (2.06 per game).
Look, Dalton is not a weekly "sexy" like Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers, but he has been a source of scores for two consecutive seasons. In addition, Dalton's list of upcoming games is appetizing for continuous fantasy production. In Week 4, the Bengals travel to Atlanta to face a Falcons defense that collected 335 yards and three touchdowns by Cam Newton in the second week. Already down the LB Deion Jones (foot) and S Keanu Neal (ACL), Atlanta lost its other safe start at the end of the fourth week as Ricardo Allen tore his Achilles.
As long as A.J. Green's (hamstring) health, the fantasy makers who have just lost Jimmy Garoppolo (ACL) for the season should strongly consider adding Dalton. After their meeting in Atlanta in Week 4, the Bengals traveled to Miami, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and New Orleans for their next five games. Four of the five Bengal competitions of this period are also at home. Dalton should be considered a weekly beginner in the 12-team leagues at this stage.
Vance McDonald, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers (98% available)
After having had shoulder, ankle, knee, back and foot problems in the past two seasons, it's nice to see Vance McDonald at 100%. After hitting the Bucs for 4/112/1 (on five targets) in the third week of Monday night, McDonald will be out everybody Radar waiver for claims this week. Since returning to the second week, McDonald has traveled more courses (59) than his teammate Jesse James (49) in the last two games, per game of football. After his 75-yard monster has armed TD, McDonald is about to receive a ton of hype before the week-4 Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore date.
Tight End is a vacant lot in fantasy this season. Delanie Walker and Greg Olsen are out, Evan Engram (knee) is injured, Jimmy Graham has not scored yet, Rob Gronkowski and the Pats have been slow, and George Kittle must now pass the passes of C.J. Beathard. It is a landscape less than ideal.
Yet over the past two years (including after the season), McDonald's averaged 1.95 yards of winnings per course, the sixth best result behind Gronkowski, Kelce, Ertz, Walker and Reed (by PFF). We have to chase McDonald's when we see it.
Ben Watson, TE, New Orleans Saints (85% available)
Most managers are looking for a fantastic source of production at the station. At the very least, Ben Watson is attached to an elite attack, he is widely available in the fantastic leagues of NFL.com, and he has seen four, five and six targets in 1-3 weeks. Watson is currently 12th among all tight ends in receiving yards (134). The saints have big mouths to feed, but Watson is a reasonable source of fancy points for those who are stuck.
Javorius Allen, RB, Baltimore Ravens (90% available)
The fantastic contributors of Alex Collins do not want to hear it, but "Buck" Allen is not going to go away anytime soon. We are three games and Allen has Collins has tied or broken in every match up to now. Baltimore also apparently decided to remove the tasks from Collins' goal line. Allen has four litters inside the five-yard line (red zone) while Collins has one. In addition, through PFF, Allen completed 73 passing runs to Collins' dull pitch 43. Collins leads the duo in touch-per-game (13.7-10.0), but Allen has three or more passes in each game. Allen's luck will eventually be exhausted, but he is on the weekly FLEX radar in PPR format for his reception. Allen has a legitimate advantage over RB2 if Collins were running out of time.
The players to drop:
Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts (90% owned)
The time to panick about Andrew Luck is now. In three games, no quarter has a lower average casting depth than 5.5 yards. T.Y. The average number of Hilton's aerial yards per target then cratered. Finally, Luck's 5.3-pass YPA is significantly worse than Joe Flacco's last season (5.7). Luck was forced to throw the rock 53 times in Week 1, leading to a weekly finish at QB11, but Luck finished beyond the fantastic quarterbacks in consecutive weeks. The fancy quarterback score is largely replaceable, and Luck's low-end devices make it out of the group of weekly beginners. There is no way to feel comfortable starting Luck during Week 4 against a Texans team that has forced 23.6% of attempts this season, the best NFL clip by Next Gen Stats.
Hopefully luck will soon regain its strength in his shoulder. Until then, it is clear that the Colts do not want him to post it. Luck does not need to be on a starting list, QB, 10 fantasy teams at this stage. 22 QB have on average more fantastic points per game than Luck on three weeks.
Robby Anderson, WR, New York Jets (73% owned)
While Quincy Enunwa engulfs Sam Darnold's inner targets (32% goal, fourth highest among receivers), Robby Anderson's total targets fell off a cliff in weeks 1-3 (1, 5, 4 ). The Jets are just not throwing all this time at Anderson. After seeing 25 deep targets (1.56 per game, ninth plus) in 2017, Anderson has only three targets that have ridden more than 20 yards in the air this season. Clashes with the Jags and Broncos continue over the next two weeks. Send Anderson over.
Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks (68% owned)
After a fantastic nightmare in weeks 1 and 2, the Seahawks finally entered a race in the third week. It was not Rashaad Penny. Carson outpaced the first-round pick against Dallas, dominating both shots (72%) and the vast majority of delays (89%). In Seattle's last two games, Carson only saw 37% of the team shots and 44% of the RB Hawks' strikes. Carson definitely deserves the work on Penny. In weeks 1-3, Penny is the last in yards gained after closing a defender within one meter by Next Gen Stats (2.2 yards). Carson averages 4.4 YGAC, the league's sixth best clip among the running backs with 20 or more attempts.
Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Buffalo Bills (67% owned)
The off-season argument for Kelvin Benjamin was centered on one thing: volume. Over the course of three games, Benjamin's total target is simply not high enough to defeat the offense of poor passing of the Bills, which is the fourth to cross the mark (539 yards). Benjamin leads the Bills in target market share, but that's only 17%. 60 different U-turns, receivers and tight ends saw a larger share of the team's targets than Benjamin. It should not be on two-thirds of NFL.com's ghost lists.
Players must hide:
Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles (99% available)
Down Alshon Jeffery (shoulder) and Mike Wallace (leg), the Eagles had to resort to two or more finals in 67.5% of their offensive slaps of week 3. The NFL average is 30 percent. about 25%. This led to a 67% peak rate for Dallas Goedert against the Colts, and the rookie offered a good time (7/71/1). With Jeffery still week after week, Philadelphia may have to continue this momentum. Goedert certainly watched the play last week and his roadmap of Next Gen Stats showed various road tree.
Cameron Meredith, WR, New Orleans Saints (99% available)
Meredith made her debut in 2018 in the third week, catching her target for 11 yards. Meredith only played on 43% of New Orleans clichés in the Saints' overtime win over the Falcons, but the majority of Meredith's use came in the coveted role of slot machines. New Orleans has given Michael Thomas access to the slot machine this season with great success, but Meredith's presence as a full-time 11-player home receiver (3RW) would add a new layer to the weapons already fantastic Saints. It is by no means playable in the fantasy of Week 4 against the Giants, but Meredith must be hidden in every fantastic football league with 12 or more teams.
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