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WASHINGTON – Is this another sign of a blue wave in New Jersey?
More Democrats than Republicans vote early and the voter turnout among Democrats is significantly higher in the most competitive districts of the state than four years ago, in the mid-term elections.
Statistics from TargetSmart, a Democratic data analytics company that monitors early nationwide voting, said that out of a total of 171,802 votes, 94,907 came from Democrats or from people who could support Democrats and of 65,487 Republicans or likely to support the GOP.
Democratic participation rate was higher in two of the state's three most competitive home runs, and Democrats drew closer to Republicans in the other, according to data on the anticipated vote of each county compiled by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
In the three districts, which are now occupied by Republicans, Democratic participation has grown faster than Republicans compared to the last mid-term elections in 2014.
"The data is clear: Democrats vote in greater numbers and have higher turnout than ever before," said DCCC spokesman Evan Lukaske.
A spokesman for the Republican National Congress Committee, Chris Martin, did not respond to requests for comment.
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Republicans were doing better than Democrats among the top voters in some states with competitive seats in the Senate, including Arizona, Florida and Tennessee, according to TargetSmart.
Tom Bonier, President and CEO of TargetSmart, said some of the first figures are a count of the mail ballots, which tend to distort the Republican behavior. It's different in New Jersey, he said.
"Unlike some other states, Democrats in the first election vote vote better than Republicans," said Bonier. "New Jersey is one of the first states to exhibit it so far."
Democrats are doing better in Iowa, Minnesota and Nevada as well, he said.
The competitive districts of the New Jersey Congress are currently represented by Republicans, but the Democratic challengers of the three countries have outperformed their GOP opponents and are considered as no less than 50-50 to win by the Cook Political Report, a publication based in Washington following the events of Congress. groceries.
In the 3rd district, where GOP representative Tom MacArthur faces Andy Kim, a former national security aide, 8,789 Republicans voted against 8,277 Democrats. The participation rate of Republicans increased by 173% and that of the Democrats by 179%.
In the 7th district, where Republican Rep. Leonard Lance is running against former deputy secretary of state Tom Malinowski, 7,384 Democrats have already voted, against 6,419 Republicans. Democrats' turnout increased from 335 percent to 212 percent for Republicans.
And in the 11th district, where MP Jay Webber, R-Morris, and former Navy Attorney and Federal Attorney Mikie Sherrill are trying to take over Republican Representative Retired Rodney Frelinghuysen, Democrats have the advantage. a decisive advantage, ranging from 6,686 to 4,846. The participation rate of Democrats increased by 299%, while that of Republicans increased by 181%.
Other trends have also favored the Democrats.
The registration of Democrats in the state increased by more than 100,000 between July 2016 and July 2018. Democrats recruited 193,590 new members, while Republicans added 92,865.
And voter turnout in this year's Democratic primary elections has increased much more than the corresponding increases in the number of Republicans going to the polls.
Jonathan D. Salant can be contacted at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @JDSalant or on Facebook. Find NJ.com Politics on Facebook.
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