What did Bobby Petrino think when he called this pass against FSU?

In a match that seemed much more important than today, Louisville sided with Florida State on Saturday. The final score was 28-24, and the FSU's winning race came in the final two minutes after Louisville appeared to be about to put the game in play 24-21.

Just two minutes from the end, Louisville had that lead on the field. The Cardinals had just won first place on a third and second, and they now faced first and tenths at FSU 21. The Noles had taken a timeout before the third conversion, just by placing themselves on the Cardinals could have emptied clock more than a minute. Then they were able to kick a goal on the field, perhaps going up to 6 points. Or they could attempt a first run, guaranteeing at least this situation unless they fumbled.

In any case, ESPN followed their probability of victory at this stage to 98.8%.

Instead of doing that, Bobby Petrino called a first try pass.

Jawon Pass has thrown to the right. The A.J. Westbrook was right there and took it.

Maybe it was just a race / pass option that turned into a pass when the numbers looked good? Probably not. Pass was immediately in release mode, his half-bearer was immediately in blocking pass mode and he did not seem to sweep for anything other than throwing the ball as he had done right away. Petrino is known to exercise significant control over his crimes, and it is difficult to see how he would not own this decision.

So the FSU had the ball suddenly, still with two timeouts and only 3 down. The Noles still had 1:56 to work.

It's about 50 seconds longer than the Noles could have had if Louisville had tried to empty the clock without doing anything else. Anyway, FSU moved quickly.

It took five games and 43 seconds for Deondre Francois to get the 81-yard Noles to a decisive goal. The last 58 of those meetings on a pass in the middle to Nyqwan, who lost a tackle and went to the races, then sneaked into the end zone:

Louisville might have found a way to ruin everything, even though Petrino did not make the strange decision to slip in so late. But the Cardinals' probability of victory was basically 100% until Westbrook was intercepted. His choice on an unnecessary pass attempt opened the door and Louisville wasted what should have been a simple victory.