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Donald Trump has always wanted to enter into a "deal" with Vladimir Putin since he began to campaign for the post of president and convinced that, unlike his predecessors, he could successfully reset with Russia . Over the past eighteen months, the various "russigate" investigations – and the skepticism of its state secretaries and defense and national security advisers – have limited its ability to continue its agenda with the Russia. But, fresh from what he considers a successful summit with Kim Jong-un, his determination to meet Putin for a bilateral summit has prevailed. They will meet in Helsinki on July 16th.
Given the tense state of relations between the United States and Russia and the lack of high-level contacts, there is a strong case for a summit with Putin. Whatever the fracture of the relationship, it makes sense that the two nuclear superpowers of the world come together and restore some of the channels of communication that were cut after the annexation of Crimea and the war in the south-east of Russia. The list of issues to be discussed is long: Ukraine, Syria, Iran, North Korea, terrorism and cyber interference. The Russian side would also like to discuss the sanctions – although since last August the US Congress has passed the CAATSA (Controversy of American Opponents through Sanctions), the president's ability to lift sanctions is limited.
What is there in this summit for the two presidents? Trump would like to show that, unlike Barack Obama, he can have a productive relationship with Putin who, he said, deserves a place at the table for all important international decisions – which Putin also believes. It is unclear what Trump is looking for from Putin beyond the general agreement that the two will cooperate on agenda items: Syria, Ukraine and "Bilateral Relations". For Putin, the summit means the end of isolation States have sought to impose on Russia its actions in Ukraine – although the war in Donbass continues, with more than 10,300 victims so far . The very fact that the meeting is taking place is a justification for Putin.
The situation in Syria is a priority. The disagreement talks have mostly prevented direct clashes between the United States and Russia. But the battle between US forces and Russian mercenaries trying to seize an oil field in the Deir Ezzor region last February – with more than 200 Russian victims – recalls how dangerous the situation is, being given the proximity of Russians and Americans. directed forces.
Iran will undoubtedly be a subject, both because of its role in the Syrian civil war and because of the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA agreement, of which Russia is also signatory. Putin criticized US actions, but may seek to play a role in finding a solution to the Iranian problem that the United States could accept.
One area where Trump and Putin could make progress is gun control. The new START Treaty limiting strategic nuclear weapons expires in 2021. As the two Presidents are hardly inclined to negotiate a new treaty, the two presidents could agree to extend the five-year treaty by executive action, which the provisions of the treaty allow them to do. .
Of course, the summit could also produce surprises. Trump will come to the meeting after attending a meeting of NATO, which already has American allies both by its criticism of the alliance and by its claim that Crimea belongs to Russia. They would like to avoid a repeat of what happened earlier this month, when Trump left a controversial G-7 summit refusing to sign the final release, and began to praise Kim Jong-un. Allies are worried about what could happen during closed sessions in Helsinki.
The most likely outcome of the summit is that both presidents will declare it successful and will agree that their officials will start working on solving a number of difficult problems. But, considering the antecedents of both leaders, any prediction is made at the risk of the author.
Angela Stent is a professor at Georgetown University and author of The Limits of Partnership: Relations Between the United States and Russia in the 21st Century.
Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a prize-giving ceremony, marking the day of Russia, at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on June 12, 2018. Yuri Kadobnov / Pool via REUTERS
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