[ad_1]
As the end of summer approaches, Labor Day has reached an almost mythic status for Mueller investigators. Trump's lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, has repeatedly stated that Mueller's investigation was about to end in early September, while others said that Roger Stone's charges and even Donald Trump Jr were imminent.
Instead, none of this has happened. And now, Mueller observers may have to wait even longer to find out what the special attorney's investigation has in store. With the mid-term elections in less than 60 days, some observers have predicted that Mueller would refrain from taking steps that could affect the outcome – although the testimony of James Comey, former director of the FBI, there is no absolute rule prohibiting officials of the Ministry of Justice from acting. even on the eve of an election.
As we enter this period of possible tranquility, this is a good time to take stock of what Mueller has accomplished so far and what questions remain unanswered.
The Special Advocates Survey tends to be described as a single, sprawling entity, with many details still outstanding. But there are several distinct tracks or areas of concentration in the investigation that Mueller pursues simultaneously. The outline of the trajectory of these leads can help inform the strategy of the special council so far – and where it could go next. Legal experts say the special council is getting closer to the parts of the probe that have the greatest impact for Trump and the people in its orbit.
Pre-existing illegal activity by Trump's associates
Until now, the oldest element of the investigation Mueller – the indictment and the trials of the former president of the Trump campaign, Paul Manafort , for financial crimes and foreign lobbying violations – is the least obvious common thread. Manafort was already under FBI surveillance in relation to these crimes when he was working for the Trump campaign, and many of the crimes for which he was charged occurred before 2016.
Manafort has been convicted of eight counts and his conviction may be relevant to other parts of the investigation if he provides information on coordination between Trump campaigners and Russian agents in 2016 in exchange for a more favorable sentence. But Lisa Griffin, a former federal prosecutor and law professor at Duke University, said the "window is closing" for this type of cooperation. According to some reports, Manafort requested a plea agreement for its second trial, which could have led to cooperation, but the talks broke down.
Russian coordination with the Trump campaign
The brightest moments of the Mueller investigation so far have been the two sets of charges launched by the Special Council Office against 25 Russian nationals and three Russian companies. These documents allege that the Russians participated in a complex cyber-influence and hacking campaign lasting several years with the explicit intention of undermining Hillary Clinton and supporting Trump in the 2016 elections.
It is very unlikely that these people and these companies will see inside a US audience room. But the indictments are important because they provide detailed evidence that the Russians were actively working to support Trump's candidacy, despite the President's protests to the contrary, and that they succeeded in sowing discord, spreading misinformation and
The accusations have stopped saying that Russia's efforts tipped the elections to Trump, or that the Trump campaigners knowingly coordinated with Russian agents. However, legal experts say it is entirely possible that Russian indictments will only be the basis for future charges against Americans who have solicited or participated in the circulation of pirated documents or offered favorable treatment on issues such as sanctions in exchange.
The question is whether these Americans – if they exist and are accused – were affiliated with the Trump campaign and how close they are to the president. One frequently mentioned possibility is that Roger Stone, an informal adviser to Trump who has been under surveillance for some time because of his obscure links with hackers and the disclosure of Democratic emails, will be charged.
Stone, who officially cut ties with Trump in 2015, was a relatively minor figure in the president's campaign. But the indictment of anyone affiliated with the president for crimes related to electoral interference could mark a turning point in the investigation, which has not yet addressed the question of whether the Americans had knowingly collaborated with the Russians to influence the election results. And it is still possible that high-level members of the Trump campaign – even the president or his children – could possibly be involved.
Obstruction of justice
Mueller's investigation into the potential obstruction of justice has the most obvious implications for the president, although there are still no accusations directly related to the obstruction. Some experts, such as Griffin, say that from a purely legal point of view, there is ample public evidence that Trump tried to impede law enforcement in his investigation of Russian interference in 2016 (that the president himself said to be linked to "this Russian case") or tweets calling senior officials of the Justice Department to end Mueller's investigation. This is in addition to any other evidence that Mueller could have collected from Trump administration insiders, such as former White House lawyer Donald McGahn.
"This part of the investigation should be easy for Mueller – it's not as complex or laborious as finding out what's going on in this Russian troll farm," said Samuel Buell, a faculty professor. of law of Duke Cas.
In fact, gathering evidence to support a case of obstruction of Trump may actually be a less difficult issue for Mueller than whether he can succeed in court. Some are skeptical about whether Trump's threatening tweets can actually be criminal behavior. And then there is the question of whether Mueller would actually charge the president to impede justice. It is not clear, for example, whether it is even possible to accuse a president in office of a crime.
But Mueller may also include evidence of obstruction in his final report to the Department of Justice – which could serve as a basis for Congress to lay charges of indictment.
Other crimes committed during the investigation
For months, Trump had the idea to sit down for a formal interview with Mueller. Buell says he does not expect that to happen. There is simply too much danger that the president is under oath.
"In any moderately complex federal inquiry, you end up with people who have problems with lying," he said. Until now, many of the people accused in the Mueller investigation have already fallen into this category, including former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn, Dutch lawyer Alexander van der Zwaan and former Trump collaborator, George Papadapoulos. Some of these defendants – like Flynn – cooperate with investigators on other aspects of the investigation, but others, such as van der Zwaan, appear to have been accused of perjury or making false statements simply. to point out that lying to investigators has consequences.
Mueller would have allowed Trump to submit written answers to questions about coordinating his campaign with Russia to interfere with the elections, which is less risky. But that does not mean that Mueller will not yet need to interview about issues related to obstruction. But will he assign Trump to appear before the grand jury if the president does not accept a voluntary interview? It is also difficult to determine whether a president can be assigned to a criminal case – and the inevitable legal battle that would ensue could carry more risks than benefits for the special advocate. (Brett Kavanaugh was questioned about this during his confirmation hearings on Wednesday and declined to comment.) But refusing a subpoena could also hurt the president, both politically and legally, even forcing him to invoke the Fifth Amendment.
Ironically, the most concrete legal threat to Trump came from outside the Mueller investigation. In August, Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to making an illegal contribution to the president's leadership. The charges against Cohen were brought by South District attorneys from New York, who can share information with Mueller, but who operate independently of the special counsel.
Former prosecutors say it is not surprising that Mueller is proceeding slowly and cautiously with regard to the parts of the investigation that have the greatest implications for the president. "This case is extremely complex," said Griffin. "It involves international players, complicated financial transactions, clandestine communications – cases like this take a long time to develop under normal circumstances. And Mueller operates under scrutiny. He will want to build a solid foundation before making big moves. "
But every time they happen, Mr. Mueller's next announcement or his round could turn threats into the hypothetical president into something very real.
Source link
