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WASHINGTON – Global warming is affecting the United States more than ever before and the risk of future disasters – from coastal floods to poor harvests in the Midwest – could pose a serious threat to the well-being of Americans.
This is the bulk of Volume Two of the latest National Climate Assessment, a 1,656-page report released on Friday that explores the current and future impacts of climate change. The scientific report, published every four years at the request of Congress, was produced by 13 federal agencies and published by the Trump government.
This year's report contains many of the findings cited in the previous National Climate Assessment, published in 2014. Temperatures are still rising and risks of hazards such as forest fires in the West continue to increase. But, reflecting some of the impacts felt across the country over the past four years, the focus in the report has changed.
The expected impacts have materialized
The predicted impacts of global warming are increasingly becoming a reality.
For example, the 2014 assessment predicted that coastal cities would be further flooded over the next few years as sea levels rise. This is no longer theoretical: scientists have now documented a record number of "nuisance" floods at high tide in cities such as Miami and Charleston, S.C.
"Flooding at high tide now poses daily risks to businesses, neighborhoods, infrastructure, transportation and ecosystems in the Southeast," the report says.
With the warming of the oceans, disturbances of the American fishery, planned for a long time, are in progress. In 2012, record temperatures in the ocean caused a month earlier than usual in lobster catches in Maine and the distribution chain was unprepared .
Everything is linked together
The report suggests a different approach to assessing the effects of climate change, taking into account the interactions between the various impacts – on food supplies, water and electricity production, for example.
"It is impossible to fully understand the implications of climate change on the United States without taking into account the interactions between sectors and their consequences," says the report.
He gives several examples, including recent droughts in California and elsewhere, which, combined with changing demographics, affect the demand for water and energy. The report also cited the six-year-old Sandy Super-Storm, which had cascading effects on interconnected systems in the New York area, some of which had not been anticipated. Flooding of metro tunnels and highways, for example, have made it more difficult to repair the electrical system, which has suffered a lot of damage.
Across borders
The US military has long taken climate change seriously, both for its potential impact on troops and infrastructure around the world and for its potential to political instability in other countries.
The report cites these international concerns but goes far beyond the military. Climate change is already affecting the operations and supply chains of US companies abroad, he adds, and as the impact of these impacts worsens, trade and the economy will suffer.
Global warming and natural disasters also affect the development of the less affluent countries. This, says the report, places an additional burden on the United States in terms of humanitarian aid and disaster relief.
Adaptation, adaptation, adaptation
Since 2014, more detailed economic studies have estimated that climate change could cause hundreds of billions of dollars in annual damage, such as deadly heat waves, coastal floods and increased extreme weather. To limit this damage, communities will need to take steps to prepare in advance.
The previous assessment warned that few states and cities are taking steps to adapt to the effects of climate change. The new report indicates that this is changing slowly. More and more communities are taking action such as preserving wetlands along the coastline to act as buffer zones against storms.
But outside of a few places in Louisiana and Alaska, few coastal communities are rethinking their development patterns to avoid the effects of rising seas and severe weather, which the report says will surely occur.
The report warns that the country is particularly ill-prepared for the sea-level upheavals that will invade coastal cities: "The potential need for millions of people and the relocation of billions of dollars of coastal infrastructure creates legal challenges complex financial and social issues. and equity issues that have not yet been addressed. "
A focus on the quality of the air
Although much of the debate on climate change focuses on the role of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in global warming, the report re-emphasizes the effects of other climate change. air pollutants, such as ozone and smoke, which can cause breathing problems and lead to premature death.
The report notes with "great confidence" that climate change will increase ozone levels, with rising temperatures and changes in atmospheric circulation affecting local weather conditions. But the increases will not be uniform. By the end of the century, the worst ozone levels will be in large tracts of the Great Plains of the Midwest and North, while levels are expected to improve, at least slightly, in some parts of the south. is.
The report reiterates what westerners have learned from their harsh experiences: warmer springs, longer dry seasons in summer, and other impacts lengthen the fire season. Fire smoke not only affects health, says the report, but visibility.
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