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On May 10, 2015, the Golden State Warriors were down 2-1 to the Memphis Grizzlies in the second round of the NBA playoffs. At the same time, several other teams who have been taken care of by the Cleveland Cavaliers, Atlanta Hawks and Houston Rockets. Those four teams were all in the NBA in three-point shots that season. To some, this felt like a time to jump to some big conclusions about the efficacy of the three-pointer.
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So that was when Phil Jackson – the Zen Master, the 11-time NBA champion and at this point the president of the New York Knicks – a little too-early dancing on the serious of three-point-dependent teams.
"NBA analysts give me some diagnostics on how to do this?" Seriously, how's it goink? " Jackson tweeted.
Within weeks, that tweet aged poorly. The Warriors and Cavaliers puts in the Finals that season, the first of four straight points between the three-point-linking teams. Jackson quickly seemed to realize he'd overstepped, as he tweeted "some corrected thoughts" just two weeks later"Penetration, first principal of offense … The 3pt shot is not all of basketball."
In the three and a half years since, however, Jackson's tweet has been more drastically to the three-pointer. It makes you wonder whether the three-point shot isin fact, modern basketball's be-all end-all.
It also makes you wonder what will be the end of the NBA: How much more can we keep "goink" in that direction?
"I do not know, but it does not really matter, does not it?" Raptors head coach Nick Nurse, the architect of the Raptors' shift last season from a mid-range-dependent team to a three-point-dependent team, told me when I asked him last week. "We talk about it at least every other day in our staff meetings: 'My goodness, this thing's changing.' You gotta start thinking about the other end: How are you going to start chasing some of these long rebounds How are you going to start chasing down some of these long rebounds? , 50 threes a night?
"It's moving fast," he continued. "Most of the teams we have seen, we would like to be able to play with each other."
The three-point line was introduced for the 1979-80 NBA season. At first it was thought to be a gimmick, and teams attempted a measly 2.8 threes per game that season. The three-point revolution may have been televised, but it was also very, very slow. It took a decade and a half before the teams started playing more than 10 threes a game. In the ensuing years, three-point frequency inched upward. Teams were taking 12.7 attempts per game in 1997-98. A decade later, in 2007-08, they were taking 18.1 attempts per game, and all the way up to 20 per game in 2012-13, Stephen Curry's fourth year in the league. The revolution had begun.
Then came the explosion: 21.5 in 2013-14, 22.4 in 2014-15, 24.1 in 2015-16, 27.0 in 2016-17 and 29.0 in 2017-18.
This season – with an increased pace, a 14-second shot clock after offensive rebounds and a freedom-of-movement. Some context: In the 2015-16 season, the Warriors shot roughly the same number of threes per game – 31.6 – and led the league in three-point attempts. Four years later, 15 NBA teams average more than that per game this season. The Houston Rockets set an NBA record with 42.3 three-point attempts per game last season, but the next-highest team, the Brooklyn Nets, averaged seven fewer. The NBA is a copycat league, and copycats have abounded: The Milwaukee Bucks are shooting nearly as many as the Rockets this season, and the Boston Celtics, Atlanta Hawks and Detroit Pistons are not far behind.
"I wonder if there's tipping point – like, is a team going to start shooting 60 threes a game?" Brooklyn Nets head coach Kenny Atkinson said when I asked what the end game is for the three-point revolution. "I really do not know the answer to that." "We'll see it increase, but I think there will be a point where teams will look at their points."
So how can this revolution go?
"Twenty-eight gold 30 feet, I would say," Celtics head coach Brad Stevens said. How they shoot it off the ball How do you get them off the ball? I'm sure it's going to be more than 10 years ago, because you have to It's really hard to do it so much.
Utah Jazz general manager Dennis Lindsey traces the three-point revolution back further than these current Houston Rockets, more than Curry, furthermore than the Mike D'Antoni's "7 Seconds or Less" Phoenix Suns. He looks back at his NBA with Houston in the mid-1990s, the Rudy Tomjanovich-coached Rockets where three-pointers were actually taken out of the post: Hakeem Olajuwon posted up then passed out to Charles Barkley or Clyde Drexler. David Stern – the three-pointer offered a more skill-based alternative.
"If you ask Rudy, the three-pointer saved the league," Lindsey told me. "Even though it was underutilized compared to today's game.It gives rise to the stars, the big shots, the comeback ability on shooting threes, where teams can spurt."
Antoni's Suns brought the possibilities of fast-paced basketball into stark relief against the formerly physical game. Now, said Lindsey, we're seeing second- and third- and fourth-generation iterations of what D'Antoni was doing.
And that revolution saw its leader in a skinny kid out of Davidson College who could really shoot it.
"Even Steph Curry and the way that Golden State has played – nobody can really play it, because Steph and Klay and their shooting makes it unique," Lindsey said. "But Steps in Your Mind." But Steps in Speeding, Speed, Speed, and Speed. range, shot quickness – he's taking threes, I'm sure some old coaches are thinking, 'Oh my gosh, what's happening to our game? Get off my lawn!' But I think he's terrific for the league, you can make an argument that he's the most skilled player. "
NBA players who have traditionally made their living on the block, have seen this shift, and they've adapted. If they have not adapted – well, there's a good chance they're not in the league anymore.
"I did not really fully realize it I got in the league," Raptors point guard Fred VanVleet told me. "I had to change the way I play a little bit." In college I was more like a guy, get-everyone-the-ball guy, when you get in the league, you gotta shoot, you gotta score, you'll be able to knock it down. "
When VanVleet was a rookie, he often passed up on open shots. His thought process: Get his team the best shot available – and he took a break from the move, his best shot available. "But I think you can get a possession," VanVleet said. "If you get it going, you better shoot it, because you might not get another one."
Now in his third season, VanVleet is taking more than four threes per game. As a rookie, he tried fewer than one.
"You go into it thinking, 'I'm going to need to shoot five, six, seven threes a game, so I have to repeat this, I have to shoot a good percentage,'" VanVleet said. "That shot-making can keep you on the floor, you can fight your shots, and you can shoot, they're struggling in the league. for shooters on a team. "
So what next for the NBA's three-point revolution? Will there be a pendulum swing back in the other direction? Do you think it will be a good idea to take a break? – taking 50 threes a game, or even more? After all, it was only a few years ago when the Rockets were considered an outlier. Instead, they became a trendsetter.
"I think it's just a question of efficiency," head coach Quin Snyder said. "The shot's worth more and more time, it's a time when it's taken, where it's considered good offense. If you were shooting quickly, it was a reflection of being disorganized. be gained. … "" I think they are going to be able to evolve.
And so, to take this to the point of absurdity: Does Snyder think that would be someday beget at the NBA?
"If they put one in," Snyder smirked, "we'll start figuring out how to use it."
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