When the migrant camp arrives, what will Mexico do?


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Pompeo goes to meetings at Mexico City with a message to local leaders about the massive caravan of migrants: stop them before they reach the US border.

Key questions: Will Mexico let migrants enter? And what will happen if they do it?

The caravan quickly caught the attention of world leaders as its training spread over the weekend. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump issued a warning, threatening to cut off foreign aid to Honduras if the group did not turn back.

But government statements, Twitter posts and even a police blockade have failed to stop the caravan. Thousands of Honduran migrants pass through Guatemala, according to humanitarian aid groups. And hundreds of others travel through El Salvador towards Guatemala.

They plan to cross the Mexican border in the next few days, then continue north until the United States.

Some caravan migrants have already begun arriving, seeking refuge, the Mexican Foreign Ministry said in a statement Thursday night. And local media reports that an increasing number of migrants have reached the Guatemalan city of Tecun Uman, on the other side of the sinuous Suchiate River from Mexico.

A bridge over the river marks an official crossing point.

Migrants have been known to have crossed the river on rafts for years – sometimes meeting with authorities en route, sometimes encountering little resistance as they crept into Mexico and continued their journey north.

This archive photo from August 9, 2018 shows a region where people cross Suchiate River from Guatemala to Mexico. The illegal crossing point is located just under the international bridge connecting the two countries, bypassing immigration and customs controls.

Mexico describes its plan

In recent days, the Mexican authorities have been keen to demonstrate that they are strengthening security near the southern border of the country. The Mexican Federal Police broadcast a video showing officers in riot gear arriving in the border state of Chiapas.

The Mexican government also issued a statement stating how it plans to respond:

• Anyone with a valid visa will be able to enter and move freely.

• Anyone who wishes to be recognized as a refugee or beneficiary of "additional protective measures" must do so individually. Those who do so will be retained "in a migration station" for a maximum of 45 working days.

• Anyone who enters "irregularly" will be "saved and subjected to an administrative procedure and, if necessary, will be returned to his / her country of origin in a safe and orderly manner".

The Mexican authorities have also indicated that they have requested the assistance of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to treat migrants seeking refugee status on the southern border of the country.

This appears to be a change from previous policies, in which humanitarian or transit visas were issued, and migrants had the opportunity to continue their journey to the north if they did not want to apply for asylum in the country. Mexico.

Last spring, when another caravan of migrants from Central America passed through Mexico, these policies allowed the group to travel to the US border.

A situation "almost impossible"

But many questions remain unanswered on how this will unfold once a large number of migrants arrive.. A complex mix of pressures hangs over Mexican officials who decide how to deal with the issue.

"It's a very difficult situation for the Mexican government," said Ana Maria Salazar, a former Pentagon official who is now a security analyst in Mexico City.

"It's a situation that is almost impossible to solve for the moment in Mexico," Salazar told CNN in Español on Thursday.

Among the factors at play:

1) President Trump

Trump focused on Mexico's role Thursday, saying he cared more about the caravan than the renegotiated trade agreement between North America and Canada, recently renegotiated. And he threatened to send troops to "shut down" the southern border of the United States if Mexico could not stop what he called an "attack."

If Trump withdraws from the trade agreement or closes the border, the two countries would have major economic implications. If Mexico finally repressed the caravan, it would be perceived as a coup d'etat for the US administration – especially among Trump supporters – and talk about how successful efforts to build bridges with the Mexican government have been, Even though Trump continues to boast of building a border wall.

But in Mexico, where the protesters have already have demonstrated to support the approaching Honduran migrants, giving in to US pressure would not be doing as well.

2) Migration on both sides of the border

It's important to remember that for Mexico, migration is not just about people entering the country, Salazar says.

They are also Mexican emigrants living abroad, many of whom are undocumented.

"In one way or another, the way Mexico treats undocumented immigrants from Central America is affecting Mexico's position in how it can criticize the US government for its treatment of undocumented Mexican immigrants in the United States, "Salazar told CNN in Español.

3) A presidential transfer

Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto has forged partnerships with the United States in the past on immigration issues. In recent years, Mexico has expelled more immigrants from Central America than the United States.

But Peña Nieto is a lame duck, he remains less than two months in power. This makes it difficult to negotiate international politics.

His successor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, will take office on 1 December. In a presidential debate, Lopez Obrador said his administration would stop doing "dirty work" for the United States by arresting Central American migrants. He said Wednesday that his administration would offer working visas to Central Americans.

"Anyone who wants to work in our country will receive support, get a work visa," he said. "We will not limit ourselves to the issue of evictions or the use of force."

Pompeo must meet on Friday with Peña Nieto and Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray, as well as Lopez Obrador's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Marcelo Ebrard.

"We are looking for concrete results," said the State Department before Pompeo's trip, "and solutions that work for both countries."

Journalists Michelle Mendoza and Merlin Delcid contributed to this report.

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