Where people come to vote – and where they do not

The United States has one of the lowest participation rates of developed countries. In 2016, for example, just under 56% of the voting age population voted in the presidential election, according to the Pew Research Center. In countries such as Denmark, Sweden and Belgium, participation in the last national elections exceeded 80%.

But the United States is a big country and voter turnout varies considerably from one region to another. At the state level, for example, the participation rate in the 2016 presidential election ranged from less than 40% in Hawaii to almost 70% of the voting age population in Maine and Minnesota.

As we have done on the map above, county-level analysis shows even more variation. To calculate the electoral participation at the county level, we used two sets of data: the total votes cast in the 2016 presidential election, compiled from official sources by the MIT Election Data & Science Lab and the number total of citizens of voting age calculated by the Census Bureau. . The final turnout is simply the percentage of the population of citizens of voting age in a given county who voted in the presidential election.

Data show that in the average county, 59% of adult citizens voted in 2016. Participation rates ranged from less than 20% in a Georgia county to almost 100% in a number of small districts in the south. Where is.

What motivates these differences? Although there is no magic formula for predicting voter turnout in a given community, researchers have repeatedly found that researchers are closely associated with people who go to the polls. We have discussed a number of them below.

State policies matter

One of the most striking features of the map above is the effect of state boundaries on participation rates. States such as Tennessee and West Virginia, for example, appear in shades of red much darker than their neighbors. Colorado, on the other hand, is much bluer than the surrounding states.

Some of these differences may be related to state laws on access to the vote. Tennessee, for example, imposes a photo ID and only allows voting by mail in certain circumstances. In contrast, Colorado sends a ballot to all voters in the state and only requires the piece of (non-photographic) identity of voters who choose to vote in person.

Electoral competitiveness also counts

However, some differences between states can not easily be linked to the regulation of voting. In presidential elections, turnout tends to be higher in battlefield states where voters may feel that their votes count more than in a state without a battlefield, where the result is essentially run # 39; advance. You can see it clearly on the map above in Vermont and New Hampshire. The voter turnout was higher in the latter state, despite voting laws much more stringent than those of its western neighbor.

Demographic differences

Demographic variables, such as race, age, and education, also play an important role in participation. In 2016, for example, the participation rate was nearly 30 percentage points higher for Americans aged 60 and over compared to the 18 to 29 age group. Whites and blacks were about 15% more likely to vote than Hispanics. Americans with higher education were twice as likely to vote as those who had not completed high school.

Factors such as these create the participation rate patchwork observed on the map above.

Do not forget the culture

But demographics are not destiny. Cultural and community norms regarding civic engagement and voting also play an important role.

One way to indirectly measure the strength of these standards is to use census response rates, which researchers use as indirect indicators of social capital, assuming that the probability of responding to a census questionnaire is "associated with prosocial behavior." , confident and civic. , "As a 2015 study explains.

At the county level, social capital (measured using census return rates) is about as closely correlated to turnout in 2016 as it is to income or education. This is particularly true in the Upper Midwest, in states such as Minnesota, where census response rates are high and participation rates are high.

What does this mean for 2018?

If the researchers know one thing about participation, it's the following: it falls half-way. The plot of US voter turnout in time looks crazy, switching between the presidential election and the mid-term elections approaching 20%. The differences are visible in all demographic groups, but they are particularly pronounced among young voters.

It remains to be seen how this will happen at the county level. Participation at the county level is more complicated in mid-term, as there is no single competition at the national level common to all voters. Some states are running major races in the Senate and the House that are attracting a lot of attention this year, while others do not.

One thing is certain, interest in the elections is at its highest this year. Google searches for "voter registration," for example, are at a level that looks more like a typical presidential election cycle than a mid-year year.