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We are in the last week of college football in the regular season, and most of the playoff images for college football are as clear as two weeks ago. Currently, Clemson, Alabama and Notre-Dame tackle the first three places in the playoffs, while Michigan ranks fourth – which has been the case for weeks.
However, it all boils down to what happens Saturday in the games of the 13th week. If the top four teams win, including those playing conference championship games, they will play in the playoffs, leaving little room for debate. But even if these teams have dominated their opponents many times throughout the season, the wild oppositions are part of the strengths of this sport.
At week 13, here are the top eight teams with the best chance to play in the playoffs, advance to the championship game and win everything, according to the ESPN Playoff Predictor algorithm.
1. Clemson (11-0)
playoffs: 96 percent
Championship game: 66 percent
Win the championship: 39 percent
2. Our Lady (11-0)
playoffs: 91 percent
Championship game: 28%
Win the championship: 10 percent
3. Alabama (11-0)
playoffs: 80 percent
Championship game: 54 percent
Win the championship: 31 percent
4. Michigan (10-1)
playoffs: 42 percent
Championship game: 16 percent
Win the championship: 7%
5. Georgia (10-1)
playoffs: 39 percent
Championship game: 20 percent
Win the championship: 9%
6. State of Ohio (10-1)
playoffs: 26 percent
Championship game: 8%
Win the championship: 3%
7. Oklahoma (10-1)
playoffs: 21 percent
Championship game: 7%
Win the championship: 3%
8. Washington State (10-1)
playoffs: 3%
Championship game: Less than 1%
Win the championship: Less than 1%
Compared to the last few weeks, Alabama fell to 3rd place among the teams offering the best chances to participate in the playoffs, and Notre Dame got a boost for the 2nd. While Nick Saban's team remains undefeated for the regular season finale in the Iron Bowl against Auburn, it was more than a 50-point favorite over La Citadelle last week but experienced difficulties in the beginning. Yes, Alabama finally found his pace on the way to a 50-17 win, but the score was tied at 10 at halftime in the encounter between the country's No.1 team ( in the standings) and the one that is now 4-6. FCS team.
(Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports)
Last week, Alabama's playoff chances were 86%, so that's not enough. An 80 percent chance of participating in the playoffs is still phenomenal, and even though she loses against Auburn this weekend or against Georgia in the SEC championship game in two weeks, it still seems like Alabama wins.
As the tide of scarlet lost a bit, Notre Dame's chances of playing in the playoffs were significantly strengthened by the playoff Predictor. The Irish who fought rocked Syracuse Saturday, 36-3, and if they beat USC this week, they will be in the playoffs. They have no title to play in the conference, but a 12-0 team with victories over four ranked teams is very pretty. Their chances are up 77% in the playoffs, 21% in qualifying for the national championship game and 6% in victory.
Clemson still has the best chance to play in the playoffs after eliminating Duke last weekend. There should not be too much trouble against South Carolina on Saturday. The Tigers chances to qualify for the playoffs have been close to 100% in recent weeks, and if a surprise would surely upset that number, this team may well be the only other team out of the four that could give up a game. at this point and continue to make the difference. playoffs.
But Michigan is definitely not in this boat. The Wolverines' chances of qualifying for the playoffs dropped slightly after struggling to part with Indiana this week. These numbers are well below 45% of chances to participate in the playoffs and 17% of chances to advance to the title match. If the Wolverines lose to Ohio State on Saturday, they will not play in the playoffs because they have already lost their schedule (against Notre Dame) and are not playing for the Big Ten Championship. But if they were to beat the Buckeyes, Northwestern – which in fact almost beat the Wolverines earlier this year – is the only thing left to do between Michigan and the playoffs. Winning and it's probably in.
(AP Photo / Tony Ding)
Georgia could do silly things for different teams. Assuming the Bulldogs beat Georgia Tech on Saturday, they will enter the SEC title match against Bama with a loss (to LSU) on their resume. If they can find a way to defeat Crimson Tide, an SEC champion who beat the No. 1 team in the country could qualify for the playoffs against a winner of Big Ten or Big 12 .
Even though the Ohio State beat Maryland only one point in overtime, he traded his place on the list of predictors of the playoffs with Oklahoma after the Sooners lost 40 points to the Kansas. The chances of the Buckeyes qualifying for the playoffs are up 22% last week, as well as their chances of qualifying for the national championship game (versus only 6%) and winning everything (versus 2%). However, if Ohio State does not beat Michigan, none of this is of any importance.
Let's talk about these Sooners though. While beating Kansas, 55-40, their defense has not stopped much and certainly could not stand up to another playoff team. Their playoff odds are just under 25% last week, as well as their chance to win the title (9% last week). But even if Oklahoma beats West Virginia this weekend and is finally a Big 12 champion at a loss, he will still need Northwestern to win the Big Ten – or maybe a defeat of Notre Dame – in order to fly a place in the playoffs.
The state of Washington would need a little bit of everything to enter at this point. In addition to winning the Pac-12, the Cougars would need a Northwestern to win the Big Ten, West Virginia or Texas to win the Big 12 and Alabama as the winner of the SEC. A loss of Our Lady would help too.
The algorithm of ESPN Analytics is based on the strength of a team's records, defeats, conference championships, independent status (thanks to Notre Dame) and the Football Power Index (FPI) – who evaluates the quality of teams' play according to the good expectations each team is. It also examines how the Selection Board has acted in the past four years in the face of similar difficulties.
Learn more about the pre-season ESPN Playoff Predictor and after FTW weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11.
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