[ad_1]
In the midst of today's galloping global mess, questions about one of Asia's most important emerging powers, India, and where it fits into rapidly evolving geopolitical equations, seem to make the subject of a thorough elimination.
But not Russian President Vladimir Putin. He is currently in New Delhi and is holding his second summit meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi since the beginning of the year.
<p class = "canvas-atom web-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The agenda is bursting with d & # 39; huge arms and other transactions But for Mr. Putin, the fundamental challenge is to regain the allegiance of one of the most faithful friends of Moscow in the Soviet era. growing Russian-Chinese strategic unity makes India more and more nervous and as current US efforts to win Indians leave Russia behind Indian opinion polls. "data-reactid =" 13 "> The agenda is full of huge deals on weapons and other traditional items, but for Putin, the fundamental challenge is to regain his allegiance. to one of the most faithful friends of the Soviet era in Moscow, this at a time when the growing strategic unity between Russia and China makes India more and more nervous and while current US efforts to win the Indians leave Russia behind the United States in polls of the Indian public opinion.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "recommended: Putin's war games give the signal to the West, but an unlikely Russia-China alliance "data-reactid =" 14 ">recommended: Putin's war games give the signal to the West, but an unlikely Russia-China alliance
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "But as Putin makes the tour in New Delhi, with a important Russian trade delegation, one of the most favorable elements in his favor is the new determination of the Trump administration to severely punish anyone who breaks US sanctions against Russia and Iran, two of India's largest trading partners. "data-reactid =" 15 "> But while Putin is touring New Delhi, accompanied by a large Russian business delegation, the Trump administration is playing in his favor – a new determination to severely repress anyone who does not respect United States sanctions against Russia and Iran, two of India's major trading partners.
Last month, Washington imposed severe "secondary sanctions" on China for buying Russian air defense systems and S-400 fighter jets. It is not a coincidence that the main deal that Putin and Modi are planning to sign at this summit is a $ 5 billion sale of Russian S-400 missiles to strengthen Indian air defenses.
"We are in a new situation," said Nandan Unnikrishnan, a Russian expert from the independent Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. "Since 2014, when the crisis between Russia and the West worsened in the face of Crimea and other problems, the Russians have moved closer to China. India has been striving to diversify its global relations. The United States is trying to seduce India to become a counterweight to China in Asia, and they have won the public relations war against Russia. "
"MONEY OF THE DOLLAR"
But Mr. Trump's aggressive unilateralism has introduced a new note of uncertainty, he says.
"At first we did not worry about Trump because we had supposed in Washington that better relations between India and India were a good thing," he says. "But India really fears that the United States will sanction us, as they did with China, under the new CAATSA measures. [Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act], for buying the S-400 from banned Russian defense companies.
"Under Trump, the United States seems to arm the dollar, forcing everyone to choose, which is a novelty," he adds. "Nobody likes to be threatened, so it has a negative impact on the Indian public opinion."
During the Cold War, India had close military, economic and political relations with the USSR. It has never been a Soviet "ally" formally and, as India's foreign policy doctrine remains strictly committed to the principles of non-alignment, it is unlikely that it will join an alliance in the future. . But for many decades, the Soviet Union was its main source of military equipment. To date, about 70% of Indian equipment is of Russian origin.
Russia is also the only key supplier of civil nuclear technology in India, with the construction of two new nuclear reactors in southern India. It is also India's main partner in developing its ambitions to become a space power.
Tightening of the US-India relationship
But Indo-Russian relations, which were once narrow, have been deteriorating for years, while India was looking for new partners for military equipment, economic investments, political cooperation and engagement. cultural. The Indians have become actors in the United States – from Wall Street to Silicon Valley to Hollywood – in search of opportunities that Russia can not match.
In recent years, India has established a strategic dialogue with the United States and has placed large orders for US military equipment, including drones, and is even considering buying the F-35 stealth fighter. He has also moved away from Russian suppliers by opting for French and Israeli equipment.
"Everyone understands that there is no possibility of restoring old relations," said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs, a leading foreign policy journal based in Moscow. "Everyone is now trying to balance, diversify and keep options open. And for Russia, the main problem is to balance relations with India and China. The fact is that we need to maintain strong and positive links with both, even if the tensions between them increase. "
At least in the military field, Russia still has things to offer that the United States can not match. The S-400 air defense system, for example, has no exact counterpart in the US arms stock. Another is the desire to fuel India's thirst for technology transfer by agreeing to build Russian warships and helicopters in India. Russia has also leased a nuclear-powered Akula-class attack submarine to the Indian Navy, and appears to be on the verge of agreeing to provide a second one.
"Russia is considered a reliable trusted partner for India, a proven partner with us," said Vinay Shukla, editor-in-chief for Russia, India Strategic, a monthly journal of defense based in New Delhi. "When India became a nuclear power in 1998, the whole world imposed sanctions on us. But Russia did not do it. We remember it.
According to Indian analysts, the looming threat of US sanctions for the purchase of new Russian military equipment is considered a problem that can not be solved by yielding to US demands but by finding ways to avoid to use the US dollar as a means of payment. This could mean that India will join a growing number of countries, including the European Union, which are creating alternative financial vehicles to avoid the growing clutter of US sanctions and will continue to trade with countries like the United States. Iran and Russia.
"We will have to find innovative ways to pay each other. In fact, the Russians seem to have a lot of ideas about it, "says Unnikrishnan. "Perhaps we could even go back to the old Indo-Soviet barter system, at least in the short term. Hopefully all these problems will eventually disappear.
UNCERTAINTY OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR
But no one really knows if India's vibrant private sector – for which the United States is a major market – would tackle the flagrant violation of sanctions, even if it was a patriotic gesture.
"US unilateral sanctions do not work politically but economically," said Asoke Mukerji, India's former ambassador to the United Nations. "Many Indian companies active in the US market will argue for compliance with US sanctions. These are big companies and they have a lot of political influence. But India has made it clear that we would only abide by the sanctions of the UN. "
For Mr Putin, these challenges represent a major opportunity to create a new paradigm for relations between Russia and India, opposed to new pressures exerted by Washington.
But not on the old model, and only up to a certain point, experts say.
"The public feels that the United States and India are aligning and everything is coming together," said Mukerji. "But on the ground, things are different."
India is diversifying its relations, he said, without making a fundamental realignment.
"It's not a pie anymore, there are several. But India will not be pushed into a corner of a multipolar world. "
Related stories
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Read this story on csmonitor.com"data-reactid =" 48 "> Read this article on csmonitor.com
Become a member of the Monitor Community
