[ad_1]
The question now is whether Washington can fill the myriad holes that have undermined previous sanctions regimes and end the revenue streams that keep the government afloat and allow it to resist the US pressure campaign. United.
In contrast to the Obama administration's global support for sanctions, broad opposition to US policy, including from its allies, should make the task much more difficult.
Nevertheless, the Trump administration has started well: Iran's oil exports have fallen by more than a million barrels a day since the launch of the new US campaign. This decline – more than a third of international sales – is double that recorded during the same period under the Obama era.
The Iranian economy, with oil accounting for 80 percent of Iran's tax revenues and a quarter of the gross domestic product, suffers. The largest European companies have withdrawn. The Iranians, fearing an economic collapse, rushed to exchange their rials, plunging the value of the currency to a historic low and causing a spike in consumer prices.
The International Monetary Fund predicted this year that the Iranian economy would grow by 4% in 2018. It now forecasts a two-year recession, with a contraction of 3.6% next year.
"We have witnessed a dramatic reduction in oil imports by major Iranian importers, a collapse of foreign direct investment, capital flight and the fact that banks are deciding that Benefits of conducting business in Iran simply do not exist, "said Brian Hook, group director. The new Iranian Action Group of the State Department, in an interview.
The sanctions in effect on Monday prohibit Iranian oil purchases, as companies are subject to sanctions unless the State Department grants derogations to their country of origin. Some of Iran's biggest buyers, including China, India and Turkey, want to obtain such exemptions, and US officials have announced they will accept certain requests to have enough time to find sources of energy. of substitution. The sanctions also target the country's banking sector, shipping and ports, although it is unclear to what extent the administration intends to be aggressive in closing the accounts of financial institutions and companies that it has the power to blacklist.
A combination of machine learning, massive data and tens of millions of satellite images of the planet every day is bad news for Iranian crude oil carriers trying to avoid the sanctions imposed by US oil. Here's why.
The Trump administration seeks to replicate the success of Obama's sanctions, which led to the 2015 nuclear deal. After the conclusion of this agreement in May, the Trump team declared that it wanted a more comprehensive deal with Iran preventing not only the development of nuclear weapons, but also banning missiles long range and limiting Tehran's support for armed conflict in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Sudan. Iraq.
"History shows that this regime is only changing behavior and coming to the bargaining table under significant pressure," said Hook.
Sanctions aggravate internal tensions, say observers from Iran. Truckers, opposed to the sharp rise in transport costs, have recently joined transnational protest protests that have largely focused on economic issues.
But the Iranian government is not completely isolated. Many of the world's largest economies, including transatlantic allies, have opposed the Trump government's decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions. Europe, like other governments, has sought to preserve its ties with Iran, especially to ensure that Tehran remains in the nuclear deal.
This global support to Tehran could give permission for the escape.
"Dissatisfaction with the US sanctions program is a silent encouragement to bypass," said Alma Angotti, General Manager of Navigant Consulting's Global Investigations Division.
The European Union, despite an exodus of companies, wants to protect trade and finance with Iran from sanctions imposed by the United States. Companies from China, Russia and elsewhere have stayed in Iran.
Washington plans to reduce oil exports to zero in the coming months, threatening sanctions against companies and countries that are not turning to new sources that the government is negotiating to bring Saudi Arabia online Arabia, Iraq, Qatar and their country of origin.
As its oil sales decline, the Iranian government strives to continue selling surreptitiously, using sophisticated techniques during the Obama push, US officials said: loading shipments on non-Iranian ships sea and extinguish the embedded satellite beacons.
In recent months, the Tehran government has convened a special sanctions group, with senior officials from the Oil, Intelligence, Exports and Foreign Affairs ministries, as well as the Iranian Central Bank.
During the Obama era's pressure campaign, Tehran transferred tens of billions of dollars worth of oil, gold and other goods through banks, trading companies and currency exchange offices. worldwide, including Turkey and Dubai, one of seven United States of America. the emirates. This infrastructure is being reactivated, US officials said.
Turkish bank Halkbank, along with several other Turkish banks under the control of US prosecutors, faces a multi-billion dollar fine for its role in these activities.
The bank did not return requests for comments. Turkish and US embassy officials in the United States did not respond to a request for comment.
A US security official, aware of the case, said the Dubai government had assured the United States that it would no longer allow such activities.
"There is nothing for the moment that makes me fear leaks," said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin between two visits to a Middle East tour last month.
Much of his trip, which included stopovers in the United States, Qatar and Kuwait, focused on enforcing the sanctions. But, "to the extent that we see it, we will try to plug the holes," said Mnuchin.
Hook said the United States already knows about Iran's clandestine channels and is "vigorous and relentless in law enforcement."
-Asa Fitch in Dubai contributed to this article.
Write to Ian Talley at [email protected]
