Who attacked the Iranian military parade?


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"Terrorists recruited, trained, armed and paid by a foreign regime attacked Ahvaz," he tweeted as the news was emerging.

A local Sunni separatist group, the Ahwaz Arab Democratic Patriotic Movement, claimed to have carried out the attack, according to the official IRNA news agency. The group then rejected the IRNA report claiming responsibility.

The ISIS radical Islamist group has also claimed, as it invariably does, a quick propaganda coup. The terrorist group has not provided any evidence.

A spokesman for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' company drew attention, claiming that they were terrorists backed by Saudi Arabia. In his tweet, Zarif said that "American masters" were behind the attack.

The incident comes at a time when relations between Riyadh and Tehran are getting more and more feverish.

Whoever is responsible for the assassination of Iranian troops and civilians at the military parade – and we will never know for sure – may have lit the paper on a dangerous escalation of terror.

Iran has accused Saudi Arabia of supporting terrorist attacks before, but not attacks of this magnitude.

It is also unusual for an attack of this magnitude to take place in Iran and it is unusual for so many soldiers to be killed.

The fact that the attack took place during a military parade to celebrate the 30th anniversary of the eight-year war against Iraq, which caused the deaths of half a million soldiers, is a deep wound in the Iranian state.

The stakes for the theocratic regime – already grappling with popular unrest in the face of rising inflation and uncertainty – are high.

A man and a boy run to escape the artillery fire in Ahvaz.

Foreign Minister Zarif's tweet threatened revenge. "Iran holds the regional sponsors of terrorism and their American masters responsible for these attacks, and Iran will respond quickly and decisively to the defense of Iran's lives," he wrote, reflecting the frustrations of his government.

His language seems to play directly in the hands of US President Donald Trump.

In a few days at the UN General Assembly, Trump plans to host a meeting of the UN Security Council where, according to US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, "respond to the aggression and sponsorship of terrorism ".

The growing influence of Iran

The question must be, why this attack and why now?

To find the answer, it may be necessary to look at recent recalls of Iran's growing influence and threat in the region.

The Shiite theocracy has become more rooted in Iraqi institutions and more rooted in Syria. More worrying for Israeli leaders, who see Iran as an existential threat, Iran's largest representative, Hezbollah, is strengthening beyond the Israeli border in Lebanon.

On Thursday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah crowned 10 days of Shiite celebrations with a speech announcing that he now possessed "precision missiles" capable of hitting with precision in the depths of Israel.

But the event that seems most conducive to retaliation, if that's what the Ahvaz attack was, was an Iranian attack earlier this month on the Iranian Kurdistan Democratic Party, an anti-Iranian group in the heart of Iraqi territory.

The 8 September artillery attack on the Iraqi Kurdish town of Koysinjac was blatant and brutal. Iran has made no effort to hide its hand behind the shells that have rained.

Several of the headquarters buildings of anti-Iranian groups were destroyed and many of its troops were killed in heavy gunfire in several parts of the city.

The group threatened retaliation – it was two weeks ago – perhaps a window large enough for someone to plan and prepare a counter-operation.

In the frightfully confused mixture of armed groups in Iraq and Syria, it has become almost normal for some to be supported by regional and international powers, including the United States.

In this climate, an overtly anti-Iranian group in Iraq, such as the one targeted two weeks ago, can expect to have local allies in Iran and even not to know or even to show international benefactors. control and responsibility.

In simple terms, Iran's strike outside its border at Koysinjac may have sent a message across the border to affiliated anti-Iranian sympathizers.

If this is the case, and that nothing proves that this is the case, Saturday's attack in Ahvaz will not be the end of the story.

And even if it is not the case, Iran will always want to take revenge.

Next week, the UN General Assembly, no matter what Trump says, will not break the risk of becoming a destabilizing cycle of cross-border attacks.

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