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As expected, President Xi Jinping's historic visit to the Philippines has been full of good-humored and ambitious statements.
As Southeast Asia became an unlikely jewel in the Chinese leader's "peripheral diplomacy" strategy, geopolitical issues were considerable.
No Chinese leader has ever been so close to extracting the Philippines from the American sphere of influence. Xi wanted to materialize the rapid transformation of bilateral relations in recent years, especially under Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte.
To move forward, however, the challenge of the two new partners is to translate their high hopes of a twenty-first century sustainable partnership into a geopolitical reality through concrete agreements and strategies. institutionalized cooperation.
Just before his visit to Manila, the Chinese leader wrote an editorial published by Xinhua that highlighted the rapid turnaround of relations between the Philippines and China. "Our relationships have now seen a rainbow after the rain," proclaimed the play.
After all, in the early years of this decade, the Philippines and China had one of the most toxic relations in Asia.
As a result, there was virtually no institutionalized communication between Manila and Beijing in previous years, especially under former Philippine President Benigno Aquino, who pursued a more confrontational approach to maritime conflicts in the South China Sea.
China and Philippines sign oil and gas exploration deal as Xi meets Duterte
Considering China as an aggressor, the former Philippine government has chosen to consolidate its defense relations with traditional allies such as the United States, Japan and Australia.
It has given Washington an expanded strategic footprint in the Philippines through new defense agreements, while taking the unprecedented step of suing China in an arbitration tribunal in The Hague over the South China Sea dispute.
The result was a period of intense mutual acrimony, with Xi and Aquino failing to hold a formal bilateral summit over the years. Today, however, the quality and direction of relations between the two countries has changed unrecognizablely.
Recently, China and the Philippines decided to transform their bilateral relations into a strategic partnership during Xi's visit.
"Just now, the president and I had a friendly, thorough and productive meeting," Xi said at a joint press conference with Duterte.
Five things to watch for Xi Jinping's visit to the Philippines
"We have laid out the Sino-Philippine relations course and have developed an ambitious plan for its development.
"[We] agreed to make our relationship a global and strategic cooperation, "he said.
Xi also said that the current rapprochement was real because it was based on a shared "vision" and "a clear path for Sino-Philippine relations".
As the Philippines becomes a crucial pivotal state in regional geopolitics, Xi expressed delight at seeing how the improvement of bilateral relations would send "a strong message to the world that our two countries are partners in the research of the world. a common development ".
Calling the two neighbors "natural partners with a common destiny," he said China "will continue to do its best to help and support the Philippines."
The Philippines is preparing the red carpet for Xi, but not everyone is happy
To the great pleasure of his guest, Xi has put the emphasis on Chinese aid in the areas that are important to Duterte, namely "to give a hand to your fight against drugs and terrorism, to help repair the roads and bridges in Marawi and to build new infrastructure "months of siege by terrorist elements last year.
For its part, Duterte praised "positive momentum" in Sino-Philippine relations as well as "deepening confidence [between] our governments ". He described Xi's visit as a "defining moment" that had "turned a new page" and started a "new chapter of openness and cooperation" for the two neighboring nations.
The dynamics of Sino-Philippine relations will depend on the completion of major Chinese infrastructure projects in the Philippines as well as the conclusion of a compromise on the South China Sea.
Beyond rhetorical flourishing, however, the two sides failed to make a diplomatic breakthrough in two critical areas of concern.
Although Xi stressed how the Philippines and China "have many common interests in the South China Sea," a joint exploration agreement, expected earlier, has not materialized.
For the past year, Duterte has put forward the notion of "co-ownership" of litigation resources in the South China Sea. China, in turn, proposed joint development agreements as a mechanism to break the stalemate in the region.
The two parties, however, signed only a generic memorandum of understanding on cooperation in the fields of oil and gas, which, according to the Philippine Secretary of Energy, Alfonso Cusi , was "only a cooperation aimed at seeking solutions" on "how we can use resources" in the south. China Sea.
Does Xi's trip to Manila mark the beginning of a golden age for China and the Philippines?
The limits of the pact were probably due to the rise of internal opposition in Manila to such an agreement, leaving the parties still exploring a possible joint exploration agreement. In a joint Senate resolution, two opposition lawmakers urged the government not to sign any agreement that "diminishes the exclusive rights of the Philippines" in the South China Sea. Anti-China demonstrations also took place in Manila, reflecting the country's liminal antipathy for improving relations.
In addition, of the nearly 30 agreements signed during Xi's visit, only two projects indicated progress in China-assisted infrastructure enterprises, namely the Panay-Guimaras Bridge Project. -Negros and the Davao City highway.
The other agreements were mainly memoranda of understanding, letters and framework agreements, many of which related to projects already identified. As a result, opponents of the rapprochement quickly blamed Duterte for failing to secure large-scale investments from China.
Beyond a change in the atmosphere of bilateral trade, the momentum of relations between the two countries will largely depend on the realization of major Chinese infrastructure projects in the Philippines as well as the development of a compromise between them satisfactory in the South China Sea.
Otherwise, in the foreseeable future, this "golden age" of relations between the Philippines and China could simply disappear.
Richard Heydarian is an academic and author based in Manila.
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