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The Israelis in missile range in the Gaza Strip fell asleep Wednesday night, worried, not knowing if a large-scale war in Gaza was imminent. The Israeli security cabinet met Wednesday for an emergency session at midnight, following Tuesday's attack on Beersheba, the largest city in southern Israel.
Thursday, however, things went on as usual. The government's decision not to respond with a major military campaign shows both the limited options available for Gaza and the nature of Israel's defense priorities.
The attack could have been seen as a casus belli. A missile destroyed the home of a single mother and her three children; the family escaped life only by using his anti-aircraft shelter.
Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman called for a strong military response. Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot interrupted his visit to the United States and arrived with operational plans. The leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad hid in the expectation of a major response.
The IDF has instead announced that it is prudent to reopen schools and resume their normal activities. The Security Cabinet has asked the army to intensify firing at border protests and to take firmer action against balloon attacks, but it is policy changes. existing, rather than a major escalation.
The decision was made by a man, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. And he is not interested in a war in Gaza.
Israel and Hamas have been in a low intensity military conflict on the Gaza border for more than a decade. Israel invaded three times to stop missile attacks. These campaigns resulted in a ceasefire and a period of relative calm, before the start of a new round of fighting. Since last May, when Hamas began organizing mass demonstrations along the border with Israel, things seemed to be heading towards a fourth round.
But even hawks like Lieberman understand that the Gaza problem can not be solved permanently by military action. His declared goal in terms of war was "four or five years of silence". A total victory would mean occupying Gaza, giving Israel the responsibility of 2 million poor and hostile Arabs; it would also likely mean a significant loss of civilian life. Israel is a prisoner of this paradox.
Netanyahu came to realize the invasion of Gaza in 2014, during which 71 Israelis died, including 66 soldiers. At the end of the fighting, Israel found itself at its starting point. People may want a glorious victory in Gaza, but managing the situation is what they can hope for better.
Over the years, Israel has spent a lot of money and money developing tools to do just that. The IDF has an iron dome system that can shoot down most rockets (although the dome was absent in Beersheba). It has techniques for detecting and destroying Hamas infiltration tunnels. And he is now building a barrier along the entire land and sea border of Gaza.
Hamas has been ingenious in dealing with these obstacles. The Israeli army has yet to answer for its incendiary balloons, which have destroyed vast tracts of agricultural land and forests in southwestern Israel. He has not been able to put an end to the demonstrations organized by Hamas at the border. But these are tactics, not strategic threats. Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas commander in Gaza, recently told an interviewer, "Nobody wants to fight a nuclear power with four slingshots."
Hamas is too weak to be anything other than a military boredom. And Netanyahu focuses on the threat posed by Iran and its proxies in Lebanon and Syria. He does not want the Israeli army to be attached to Gaza even for a short time. He needs military budgets and personnel for the Northern War.
Yes, Prime Minister would like to conclude an agreement with Sinwar: Israeli economic cooperation in exchange for a long-term ceasefire. But if Hamas wants to continue to fight, it is a problem that can be solved by technology, targeted assassinations and an occasional air strike. Bibi is determined to guard himself and his army from the heather area of Gaza.
Zev Chafets, a journalist and author of 14 books, was a senior aide to Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin. © 2018, Bloomberg Opinion
