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Thousands of Walt Disney World workers could receive an increase. Union members are voting on a new contract that would bring the starting minimum wage to $ 15 an hour over the next three years and would allow Disney to hire more part-time workers. (September 6)
AP

The growth of the non-farm payroll in August was better than expected, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.9%. Wages also rose, but job growth in June and July was reduced by 50,000 people.(Photo: dolgachov / iStock)

The long-awaited recovery in US wage growth may have finally arrived.

The average hourly wage increased by 2.9% in August compared to the previous year, which represents the largest increase since June 2009, said Friday the Department of Labor.

The rise last month means that workers' wages finally rise at a significantly higher rate than the Fed's 2.3% annual inflation rate. And this gives households a little more room in their monthly budgets.

Until now, wage increases have accelerated, but gradually. They averaged around 2.7% in 2018, compared with 2.5% in the previous two years.

Economists predict that annual wage increases will reach 3% since unemployment fell below 5% in 2016, as more and more employers began struggling to find workers.

Workers looking for a salary should not leave champagne yet. Experts are not sure that the rise last month will continue.

Dean Baker, co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, said: "It is too early to assume a clear trend," noting that annual salary increases reached 2.8% in July 2016 to fall back.

But Andrew Chamberlain, Chief Economist for Glassdoor, the giant of job postings and employee reviews, said, "I do not think it's a problem at all. The signs are clear … you see a steady increase in wage pressures.

Although higher wages are generally positive for workers, they could also prompt the Fed to raise interest rates more quickly to avoid rising inflation. This could make variable rate mortgages and credit card debt more expensive and cool the stock market, as well as the assets of 401 (k) worker plans. Higher rates make bonds less risky relatively more attractive than equities.

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One of the factors that has reduced wage increases in the monthly labor employment report is that the very well-paid baby boomers are retiring while the younger generation of high school seniors are on the payroll. labor market.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which follows the same workers over time, recorded a 3.3% annual increase in wage growth in July, notes Chamberlain.

Today, the Labor Party's most watched report is also beginning to reflect greater wage gains as the job market has tightened significantly in recent months. The number of job openings in June, at 6.7 million, exceeded 6.6 million unemployed Americans, according to figures from the Department of Labor. Employers "are starting to pull talent out of the competition," says Chamberlain.

In fact, people who change jobs get the biggest benefits, with annual earnings gains of 3.8% in July, compared with 2.9% for job holders, according to figures from the Fed. Atlanta.

Paychecks increase more in some industries than in others.

It is not surprising that salaries in August increased by 4.7% over the previous year among financial corporations, 3% in professional and commercial services and 3.4% in information. . The latter category includes media and telecommunications companies, movie studios and some technology workers. The construction, facing a serious shortage of manpower, boosted wages by 3.3%.

However, wages also increased by 3.2% for recreation and hospitality, including lower-cost restaurant and hotel workers and retail trade. Workers in these sectors are less likely to look for a job, forcing employers to tap into a smaller pool and make offers to attract them, says Chamberlain. These employees have also benefited from minimum wage increases in 18 states this year, he said.

Yet the manufacturing sector, which is struggling to hire highly skilled workers, has provided annual wage increases of 1.8% on average. Baker says many manufacturers may not be able to poach workers from their competitors after choosing workers for years, closed factories and jobs displaced abroad.

There was other good news for the workers last month. Hiring rebounded in August, the government reported Friday as employers created 201,000 jobs and the labor market continued to face US labor shortages and battles.

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Trump said that the United States can not afford the increases.
Time

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