Why Jimmy Butler may not solve the biggest problem of the Philadelphia 76ers



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New General Manager Elton Brand begins his tenure with the Philadelphia 76ers with a major bet. Jimmy Butler's successful case, which took place this weekend, officially places the Sixers in win-win mode, but there is no guarantee that this trade will make the team better – not to mention preparing the franchise for the final.

The Sixers are 8-6, just 2½ from second in the east. But their key statistical indicators show that they played more like a lottery team than as a competitor. Philly ranks 19th in the net standings and 21st in offensive efficiency. Yuck.

For this trade to hit, these two parameters must improve. As an All-Defense selection four times, there is no doubt that Butler will elevate the team on this side. However, the main problems of the Sixers are on the offensive and it is difficult to find figures that suggest that this trade will correct them. The Sixers of last year ranked 14th in offensive efficiency. They are worse this year and we do not see how Butler will solve this problem, especially considering the gains he brings, it will offset the losses of Dario Saric and Robert Covington.

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Saric and Covington are not stars like Butler, but they get along well with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. The best creators of the NBA so far are a pair of creators with stretchy and casual shooters. Simmons is the kind of young ball maestro that most teams are looking for, but Philly has just sent Minnesota a big chunk of its spacing for another greedy dribbler machine. It looks like a car that swaps its two rear tires for a second steering wheel.

That does not count, at least not yet. Butler, Simmons and Embiid form an impressive core, but desperately need peripheral help. Simmons can not shoot. Butler and Embiid offer a limited offensive at 3 points. Philly ranks 16th in the NBA as a percentage of the actual goal (% eFG), and it's hard to see how that will increase with Butler in the mix. Saric (0.541) and Covington (0.534) posted larger numbers in this key measure than Butler (0.512) did last year. (The filming of Saric is down significantly this season, but Second Spectrum's data shows that its eFG% is 10% worse than expected considering its good looks and is about to rebound.)

Saric and Covington both offer balanced diets that facilitate efficiency. Just look at this beautiful signature:

And this one:

These two babies "Process" not only allowed Embiid and Simmons to function, but they combined to cast more than 11 3 per game this year and accounted for 34.1% of Philly's total of 3 points. Both players take more than half of their shots out of the bow.

During the series of 16 consecutive wins of the Sixers until the end of last season, the team recorded the NBA's third best offense with 55.6% eFG and 33.3 attempts of 3 points per match. Saric and Covington combined for over a third of these attempts, converting 38.1%. Without them, Philly's spacing will suffer. It will be almost impossible to develop a rickshaw machine that will elevate this troubled group without further movement.

Of course, the brand and the company are probably not finished tinkering in the garage. Let's remember that Philly acquired two large perimeter chunks during mid-season chords a year ago by hooking on Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova. It is reasonable to expect that they will take at least one this year. They will have to do it because, as it is built on time, this team does not have enough firepower to compete with eastern competitors.

Butler can replace some of Covington's and Saric's business, but not all of it. He is a 2-point man who gets involved in long-range shooting. Yes, he averages 4.5 attempts at 3 to 3 points, a career high, but only 29% of his appearances go beyond the bow. He will introduce many more psychics into the Philly throwing selection. Where are Simmons and Embiid in all of this?

The most powerful parts of Butler's game are usually driving attacks that result in high-quality shots near the bucket or trips on the line. But these movements require a young engine, and some signs already indicate that Butler's acceleration is slowing down. Consider these disturbing numbers:

  • Tracked by Spectrum Second, 55 players have recorded at least 100 readers this season. Butler ranks 50th in points per disc (0.89) among this group.

  • This figure of 0.89 is by far its lowest score in the past five seasons (down from 1.12 in 2017-18).

  • Butler has the lowest free throws rate of his career, averaging only 0.39 free throws per attempt.

Philly fans hope these numbers reflect the chaos that Butler just left behind, as opposed to the byproduct of the decline in athletics.

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Anyway, Butler could file earlier than expected, given the difficulties of his former Teammates Chicago Bulls, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose. Like these guys, Butler played a lot of minutes for Tom Thibodeau. He averaged 35 minutes per game in each of the last six seasons and led the NBA in minutes played in 2014-15. The weakened depth of the Sixers after this trade means that they will need Butler to continue playing seriously.

At the age of 30, Deng, Noah and Rose both had major orthopedic problems, but the teams were still persuaded to overpay them. And it's there that this deal becomes really scary. Philly is ready for a long term investment in Butler, according to reports from Adrian Wojnarowski and Zach Lowe of ESPN. That would mean a potential deal of $ 190 million over five years this summer.

If the Sixers and Butler hear at maximum, this contract will begin just after Butler's 30th birthday, in September 2019, until 2024. Will it be worth it? Time will tell, but keep an eye on these indicators. Can Butler push this team to improve his net score and his offensive efficiency, or his ability to drive has he already passed?

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