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How healthy will the world be in 2040?
If things continue they are now, the answer is better than average, the average is 20 years old. Oct. 16) in the journal The Lancet. The aim of the public health choices and policy decisions that we make – or fail to make – we could set us down various paths, the worst of which could be seen in the world, the authors reported.
In the report, the researchers created a model projecting the health outcomes and causes of death for the year 2040 in 195 countries and territories. The model was based on a previous study that looked at such factors in global populations between 1990 and 2016. [Extending Life: 7 Ways to Live Past 100]
The model also made of 79 "drivers" of health, such as smoking, body mass index, clean water and good sanitation conditions, along with other variables, such as fertility measurements, income and education. Then, the researchers plugged into numbers to predict a separate scenario: a "most-likely" forecast, a "better-health" scenario, and a "worse-health" scenario.
If things continue apace, the model is in the "most-likely" scenario, the leading causes of death in 2040 are expected to be ischemic heart disease, stroke, lower-respiratory infections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease airflow), chronic kidney disease, Alzheimer 's disease, diabetes and road injuries.
In this scenario, the life expectancy in the U.S. is projected to be 79.8 years in 2040, up to 1.1 years from the 2016 estimate, the researchers found. Other parts of world would see greater improvements, however; for example, life expectancy in Syria is predicted to rise from 68.2 years in 2016 to 78.6 years in 2040, and in Equatorial Guinea it is predicted to rise from 65.6 years in 2016 to 75.9 years in 2040.
Life expectancy is also projected in Japan, Singapore, and other countries, including China.
While this scenario is predicting improvements in life expectancy for many countries, it also predicts that the number of noninfectious diseases will increase.
Other outcomes
But that's assuming things more or less stay the same. "The future of the world is not preordained, and there is a wide range of plausible trajectories," lead author Kyle Foreman, director of data science at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle, said in a statement.
This wide range between "better" and "worse" scenarios shows "precarious vision" of the future, the authors wrote in the study. The best way to do this is to move towards the "better" scenario, while an absence of policy action could lead to a "worse" scenario.
Under the "better-health" scenario, men could gain an additional 7.8 years, on average, in life expectancy by 2040 and women could gain 7.2 years, on average. What's more, life expectancies in 158 countries would be increased by at least five years, and 46 of those countries would be at least 10 years, according to the report.
Under the "worse-health" scenario, on the other hand, life expectancy is projected to go down to half of the countries examined, the report found. Perhaps most striking, the authors wrote, is that deaths from HIV / AIDS could increase by 120 percent in this scenario.
"Foreman said." The key to high blood pressure, high body-mass index, high blood sugar, and tobacco use.
The report also predicted that the life-expectancy differences between high and low-income countries would decrease by 2040, under the most-likely scenario. "Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the IHME, said in the statement. "In a substantial number of countries, they are still going poorly, remaining poorly educated and die prematurely," he said.
To make progress, countries must help ", added Murray Murray. Technical innovation and increased health spending are especially "crucial" to help these countries, the authors wrote in the report.
Originally published on Live Science.
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