Why life expectancy in 2040 could be lower than today's

How healthy will the world be in 2040?

If things continue as they are now, the answer is better than today: life expectancy will average 4.4 years longer for men than for women by 2040. ' according to a new report published today (October 16) in the newspaper The Lancet. However, public health choices and the political decisions we make – or do not take – could now take us on different paths, the worst of which could lead to a decrease in life expectancy. in nearly half of the world's countries, the authors reported.

In the report, researchers created a model projecting the health consequences and leading causes of death for 2040 in 195 countries and territories. The model was based on a previous study that examined such factors in global populations between 1990 and 2016. [Extending Life: 7 Ways to Live Past 100]

The model also took into account 79 "factors" of health, such as smoking, body mass index, safe drinking water and good sanitation conditions, as well as health problems. other variables, such as measures of fertility, income, and education. Next, the researchers plugged numbers to predict three distinct scenarios: a "most likely" forecast, a "better health" scenario, and a "worst" scenario.

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If things continue as expected in the "most likely" scenario, the eight leading causes of premature death in 2040 should be ischemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory tract infections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (a lung disease that blocks airflow), chronic kidney failure, Alzheimer's disease, diabetes and road accidents.

In this scenario, life expectancy in the United States is estimated at 79.8 years in 2040, an increase of only 1.1 years compared to the 2016 estimate, the researchers found. However, other regions of the world will experience greater improvements; for example, life expectancy in Syria is projected to increase from 68.2 years in 2016 to 78.6 years in 2040 and in Equatorial Guinea, from 65.6 years in 2016 to 75.9 years in 2040.

Life expectancy should also exceed 85 years in Japan, Singapore and Spain, men and women, and exceed 80 in 59 other countries, including China.

Although this scenario predicts an improvement in life expectancy in most countries, it also predicts that the number of deaths from several non-infectious diseases will increase, the researchers reported.

Other results

But that assumes that things stay more or less the same. "The future of health in the world is not pre-ordered and there is a wide range of plausible trajectories," senior author, Kyle Foreman, director of data science at the Institute of Metrology and Health Assessment (IHME) from the University of Washington in Seattle. said in a statement.

This wide range of "better" and "worse" scenarios shows a "precarious vision" of the future, wrote the authors. On the one hand, the acceleration of technology offers an excellent opportunity to promote the "best" scenario, while the absence of political action could tip the world into the "worst" scenario.

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In the "better health" scenario, men's life expectancy could gain an average of 7.8 extra years by 2040 and that of women 7.2 years on average. In addition, life expectancy in 158 countries would increase by at least five years, and 46 of those countries would see an increase of at least 10 years, according to the report.

According to the report, in the "poor health" scenario, life expectancy is expected to decline in nearly half of the countries surveyed. According to the authors, perhaps the most striking is that deaths from HIV / AIDS could increase by 120% in this scenario.

"If we see significant progress or stagnation, it depends on the ability of health systems to address the major health factors," Foreman said. High blood pressure, high body mass index, hyperglycemia, as well as smoking and alcohol consumption, are the main drivers of health that may lead to premature death.

The report also predicted that life expectancy differences between high- and low-income countries would decrease by 2040, according to the most likely scenario. But "inequities will continue to be significant," said in his release Dr. Christopher Murray, lead author of the study, director of the IHME. "In many countries, too many people will continue to earn relatively low incomes, remain poorly educated and die prematurely," he said.

To move faster, countries need to help "people cope with the major risks, including tobacco use and poor nutrition," Murray said. Technical innovation and increased health spending are particularly "crucial" to help these countries, the authors wrote in the report.

Originally posted on Live Science.