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The Saturday night clash between Wisconsin and Michigan (ABC, 7:30 pm) is one of the college football fans that had circled before the season started. Both were well regarded entering the 2018 campaign. Wisconsin was ranked # 4 in the AP pre-season poll. Michigan was ranked at No. 5 by the respected summer publication Athlon.
Both were disappointing, especially among testers. Wisconsin is just 1-4 against the point spreads of the market, making the now No. 15 Badgers, one of the country's most overrated teams. Wisconsin simply lost against BYU as a 23-point favorite, a loss that looks even worse considering the subsequent discolouration of the Cougars.
Michigan looked awful during the bulk of its loss early in the season at Notre Dame. And, it was the Fighting Irish version with Brandon Wimbush at the quarterback who then struggled to beat Ball State and Vanderbilt. The Wolverines, No. 12 so far, have not lost since, but they had to come together to overtake the Northwest 20-17 as a 15-point favorites.
Is the powder keg in prime time this week just a hype? Sports bettors must be open to this possibility, at least as to whether these teams will be overestimated in Big 10 discussions or as a Final Four Long. Partner companies tend to advertise their product, whether it is deserved or not.
Sharps made an early statement, touching a Michigan -6 ¹ / ₂ opening line and passing it through the key number of seven up to -8. Many stores offered -8¹ / ₂ at the end of the week. Why such support for the favorite in what is marketed as a defensive battle "smash mouth"? Is not that a lot of points for this kind of game?
Wisconsin may not be as effective as you thought. Two key factors here:
- The Wisconsin Rush defense ranks 81st nationally in yards per run for 4.43. Sharps is betting as if they thought it would allow Michigan to control the unfolding of the match on the court. (If you ask, the Michigan defense ranks fifth in this statistic, with 2.64 allocated per race).
- Wisconsin is poorly suited to play with respect to quality. Quarterback Alex Hornibrook is very imprecise with his overtaking setback. If Hornibrook is to join in the air, it is more than likely that incomplete passes, turnovers, and a general disaster for field positions occur.
The ranking may consider these teams to be about equal. Sharps has invested a lot so that the nuances of this talent match will favor the host. Michigan can stay in its comfort zone while controlling its own destiny. The overvalued visitor can not. It's the theory anyway.
Match day handicappers must decide if the line has been moved too far. The totals can determine whether gaming temperatures in the 1940s will help limit the market potential score of 48 ¹ / ₂.
Even if you do not bet the game, it's not a bad idea to discover because the two teams will go on television several times. If the defense against the Wisconsin rush continues to bend, you can be the guy who hits the opening line next time.
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