Will Donald Trump's rally for Ted Cruz motivate Republicans or Democrats?

HOUSTON – When President Donald Trump announced for the first time that he would travel to Texas to campaign for US Senator Ted Cruz, at least one Texas Republican officer prayed for the rally to take place at Kyle Field , at College Station – and the feeling had nothing to do with Aggie pride.

The problem was that if the Trump rally was held in one of the big cities of Texas – especially Dallas or Houston – the president's presence could further prompt the Democratic base to embark on races where Republican leaders are in political conflict.

The prayer has not been answered.

Instead, Trump travels to the heart of Houston on Monday. And some Texas Republican agents, but not all, fear that it may hurt local incumbents, especially US Representative John Culberson and state representative Sarah Davis.

"On average, Trump's visit will benefit Republican candidates across the country by helping to increase the participation of Republicans and non-Republican Trump supporters," Rice University professor Mark Jones said in an email. in the Texas Tribune.

Granted, the Trump rally at the Toyota Center is the hottest ticket in town, and politicians like Governor Greg Abbott should join Cruz at the rally.

But some notorious local Republicans will not be there, including Culberson, who told The Tribune that he had organized an event before.

After a debate late Sunday against rival Democratic Lawyer Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, Culberson hinted that even in his absence, Trump's presence would "reinvigorate Republican primary voters who really need to understand the importance of this breed in the west of Houston ".

"I would like to be there," he added. "I always keep my promises, and I will keep my promises to my constituents to be here tomorrow to help them explain how to best recover from Hurricane Harvey."

At the same post-debate meeting with reporters, Fletcher was quick to point out that Hillary Clinton narrowly defeated Trump in the 2016 presidential race.

"It's a useful reminder of the stakes of this election when it will come here tomorrow," she said.

Other allies of Culberson insist that there are only a few convincing voters in the 7th Congressional District of Houston and say that Trump will likely stimulate enthusiasm on both sides. There is also a growing sense in the GOP circles that the Democratic base is so activated that it is no longer possible to motivate it.

Davis, who has managed to retain a state house district that covers much of Congress District of Houston, west of Culberson, is in a competitive race against Democratic challenger Allison Lami Sawyer. His side refused to answer a question from the Tribune about it.

Davis is best positioned to resist the negative effects of Trump's visit given his strong personal brand in the district, particularly among Anglo-British university graduates, who are less likely to vote against she to voice their opposition to the president, Trump, "said Jones, the rice teacher. "Culberson does not have the independent personal brand held by Davis, and is therefore more vulnerable to any anti-Trump backlash among Anglo-Republican women graduating from college, fueled by Trump's visit and by a link closer between him and Culberson in the eyes of those voters. "

Elsewhere, veteran Dan Crenshaw, the Republican nominee who sits at the open convention from Conservative Kingwood to Liberal Montrose, is planning to attend an already scheduled event. Crenshaw presents himself to represent a historically safe GOP seat, but he faces a well-funded rival in the democratic non-profit executive Todd Litton.

Long before most Texans heard of Beto O. Rourke, the main goal of the Texas Democrats was to keep – if not strengthen – party gains in 2016 in Harris County. The appearance of Trump here only highlights the central place occupied by the most populous county of the state in this year's elections.

But the target audience for this rally goes far beyond Houston. His presence embodies the logic of other Republicans: Trump will encourage party supporters outside the city limits to introduce themselves to other Republicans.

With this in mind, the US representative Pete Olson, a Republican representing the suburbs of Houston, Sugar Land, will be present. The Democratic candidate Sri Preston Kulkarni has contested Olson, but his suburban district supports Trump much more than the urban areas of the region.

It is also the largest state television market, and some of the most powerful pockets of conservatism lie in the region – the suburbs and suburbs where the Tea Party's activism dominates the political life. These areas, although not necessarily part of Houston proper, are located in the city's media market and will be sure to see Trump on local news throughout the trip.

"It's great, I'm excited," said Jeff Roe, director of Cruz's campaign last week. "The Houston Market, visited by the President, will have a profound impact on participation, motivation and enthusiasm."

"I saw it all over the country – what does it do with the number of polls, which makes the excitement, the intensity, the voting plans, the people who s & # 39; They are committed to volunteering, "continued Roe. "Have been inundated since it's been announced with volunteer opportunities." It's exciting. It's exciting for the countryside. "

Roe said it was the White House, not the Cruz campaign, that made the call to Houston, but said he strongly agreed with him.

"The White House is smart. They know where to go, "Roe told reporters last week. "Trump has been to Dallas a few times anyway."

Patrick Svitek contributed to this report.

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