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In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown beat Republican Josh Mandel in 2012 from 51% to 45%. According to polls conducted at the exit of CNN's polling stations that year, women voters (56%) were significantly more likely than men (48%).
The number of women who pushed Brown to re-election in 2012, a presidential election year that also featured President Obama on the ballot, has only increased. Now, in an NBC / Marist poll conducted in late September among likely voters, 60% of likely voters said they would support Brown for a third term. Women's support for the Republican declined, with 42% of women voting for Mandel in 2012, but only 31% of women polled in the latest NBC poll said they would vote for Jim Renacci in the upcoming mid-term elections. -parcours.
Male support for Brown has declined slightly from 48% in 2012 to 44% now. They did not move much on the Republican candidate.
It could be a blip. The NBC poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. In terms of polls, we are therefore 95% convinced that Brown's actual support is between 55% and 65% of the probable voters. This could be accurate as to where he was in 2012.
But Brown's leadership among women in this Ohio poll is reflected at the national level, where women say in "generic ballots" that they plan to vote for a much larger Democrat candidate. than the previous elections. Sixty percent of likely female voters who said they would support a Democrat in the latest CNN survey. In 2014, 51% of women supported Democrats in the National Assembly exit poll, compared with 48% in 2010 and 55% in 2006.
According to other polls conducted in some states, women are at risk of moving away from Republicans. An SSRS survey on CNN was released this week. It shows that Democratic challenger Jacky Rosen has a very slight lead over outgoing Republican Dean Heller. Again, this advance is in the margin of error.
Exit polls in 2012 suggest that 48% of women voted for Democrat Shelley Berkeley when Heller defeated her in 2012. The CNN poll shows voters likely to vote for Rosen will be 52%. Women fell on Heller with 42% saying they voted for him in 2012 and 38% planning to do so in 2018.
The men, meanwhile, did not move significantly on any of the candidates. Their support for the Democrat or Heller has remained relatively stable since 2012.
A survey conducted in mid-September in Marquette showed that Democrat Tammy Baldwin, with the support of 52% of all Wisconsin voters, has almost achieved the same result as in 2012. However, D & # 039; after surveys conducted in 2012, 56% of women were retired. This year, the Marquette University poll shows its current support at 60% among likely female voters. For its part, the Republican challenger suffered a loss. In 2012, Tommy Thompson received 41% of the women's vote, according to exit polls. Now, Republican Leah Vukmir has seen only support from 31% of likely women voters, according to the Marquette poll.
Wisconsin men have not moved much either. In 2012, 46% of men supported Tammy Baldwin, including 43% in 2018.
The growth among the likely voters in all these polls is in the margin of error, which is important to note. The fact that they are all growing among Democratic women candidates suggests that it is more than statistical noise
But not all states follow this trend.
In Missouri, CNN's new survey indicates that 55% of likely female voters plan to vote for Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill in her bid for a third term. In 2012, McCaskill earned 58% of women's votes in Missouri. Again, the trough could be attributed to the margin of error. However, in 2012 she ran against Republican Rep. Todd Akin, who had inflamed opposition even among other Republicans after a highly controversial and specious remark about rape victims not often getting pregnant.
Josh Hawley, McCaskill's opponent this year, did not make similar mistake. However, he oversaw the controversial investigation over Governor Greitens, when he was accused of a case involving criminal charges, which might have pushed some women away from current candidate in the Senate. In this specific state, men have definitely turned to the Republican candidate. In 2012, Akin gained the support of 43% of men, according to exit polls, versus 51% of men who said they would vote for Hawley now.
The other races are not so clear. Some, such as Indiana, have found discrepancies in recent polls. According to Fox News, incumbent Democratic Democrat Joe Donnelly garnered only 40% of the vote among likely female voters, while a NBC / Marist poll saw 50% women.
Historically, fewer people vote in mid-term elections like this than in presidential elections like those of 2012. Democrats in particular, who tend to have more women voters than Republicans , had trouble participating in the less presidential elections.
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