World does not have the capacity to absorb new fossil fuel power plants, warns the IEA | Business

The world has so many fossil fuel projects in place that it can no longer afford to build a more polluting infrastructure without breaking international climate change targets, warned the energy monitoring group. World.

The International Energy Agency has stated that almost the entire global carbon budget to 2040 – the amount that can be emitted without causing dangerous warming – would be absorbed by power plants, vehicles and industrial facilities. today.

Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based group, told the Guardian: "We have no room for maneuver to build something that emits CO2 emissions."

The economist has said to limit temperature rises to 2 ° C, not to mention the 1.5 ° C recommended by scientists, that all new energy projects should be low-carbon, which was unlikely, or that existing infrastructure needs to be cleaned up.

This could include incentives for early decommissioning of dirty plants or the installation of carbon capture and storage technologies, Birol said.

"We eat 95% of the [carbon] budget, even if we do nothing else. Which of course is impossible, no longer build trucks or power plants, "said Birol.

In total, the IEA has calculated that the existing infrastructure would "lock in" 550 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide over the next 22 years. This leaves only 40 gigatonnes, or about one year of emissions, room for maneuver if the temperatures must not exceed the threshold of 2 ° C.

Last year's annual report, World Energy Outlook, published by the group, revised up future CO2 emissions.

Global energy-related emissions remained unchanged in 2014-2016 after decades of increases but in 2017 and 2018 so far, they have resumed their ascent. The AIE forecasts an increase in CO2 emissions of 32.53 gigatonnes in 2017 to 36 gigatonnes in 2040.

Graph of carbon emissions

Birol said that, unfortunately, the data suggested that 2014-2016 was a blip, rather than 2017-18. "There is a growing disconnect between the new international organization [climate] research and what's happening in the energy market, "he said.

The report indicates that the world is "still far away" from achieving its climate change and air pollution goals.

However, the IEA is optimistic about the extent to which the electricity market will become greener. Wind farms are expected to grow from 4% to 12% of global electricity generation by 2040, surpassing nuclear power.

Solar energy is expected to grow from 2% of current generation to nearly 10% by 2040 and is expected to outperform the competition for new coal plants "almost everywhere".

Hydropower will remain the largest source of low carbon electricity generation (15% in 2040). Storage costs for batteries should also decrease rapidly.

But the report predicts that beyond the production of electricity, fossil fuels will continue to dominate the use of energy. Aircraft, ships and industry are not yet "ready for electricity" with current technology, the IEA said.

Overall, the world's energy appetite is expected to grow by a quarter by 2040 due to an increase of 1.7 billion people, rising wealth and shifting demand from the world. West to Asia.

Mr Birol said he was disappointed that high oil prices have recently pushed some countries, such as India, Indonesia and Thailand, to cut fossil fuel subsidies granted each year. year by governments. "It's certainly not a good move. This puts a lot of pressure on government budgets, "he said.

The World Energy Outlook pointed out that by mid-2018, while oil prices were just below $ 80 a barrel, there had been "signs of slowing down reform efforts."

The IEA has expressed concern over the prospect of a tightening of oil supplies in the next ten years. "I believe oil markets are entering a new era of uncertainty and volatility. My concern is that the links between energy and geopolitics are becoming tighter and more complex, "said Birol.