[ad_1]
Minneapolis
TThe key question for this year's midterm elections is how effective President Trump will be in dealing with local issues, which often play a key role in the House of Representatives races. A shorter way to say it is this: are the midterms really a referendum on Trump?
This is a particularly urgent issue here in Minnesota, which Trump almost won in 2016. There has been much talk about whether this or that congressional district offers a critical overview of the party's victory. The peculiarity of Minnesota is that it counts four and even perhaps five different races, all in the same state. In both countries, the 1st and 8th districts, there is a good chance that the Republicans will get the seats currently occupied by the Democrats – a rather rare event in this political climate. In another, on the 7th, there is a long term chance of a GOP victory. In two others, the 2nd and 3rd, there is a good chance that the Democrats – in Minnesota, the Democrat-Peasant-Labor party – will get the seats currently occupied by the Republicans.
Trump is present in every district and in every campaign – but not necessarily the same Trump. In some races, Trump is the trump of the daily noise of cable television and the Internet – the president who, according to his many critics, writes scandalous tweets, idiotic bigotry, is increasingly blocked by the investigation on Russia.
But in the other races, a totally different asset is at work. Trump is the president who is improving the economy by lowering regulations that are hurting local industries in mining, logging and manufacturing. Trump is a president who not only protects industries and individual incomes, but also a way of life.
It is unclear which Trump will have more influence on Election Day.
Grand Rapids, Minnesota
The 8th district is a sprawling expanse – 27,000 square miles – covering northeastern Minnesota. With one brief exception, the 8th is represented in the House by a Democrat in the House since 1947. (This was the exception of Republican Representative Chip Cravaack, elected in 2010 and defeated for a re-elected in 2012.) The district has been represented by Democratic Representative Rick Nolan since his victory over Cravaack in 2012. But Nolan experienced an imminent death experience in 2016, when he defeated GOP challenger Stewart Mills of 50.3% to 49.7%. Nolan called he quits after that.
Now, it seems that the seat will switch to the Republicans. GOP officials are delighted with the performance of the party's candidate, former police officer Pete Stauber, former police officer Duluth, Minnesota, who, according to a New York Times poll in the mid -October, will lead the democrat Joe Radinovich former representative of the state house, by 15 points.
GOP strategists consider Stauber an ideal partner for the district. He is from there, of course. Hockey star at Lake Superior State University, he signed with the NHL and played for the Adirondack Red Wings, minor leagues. He and his brothers own and operate the Duluth Hockey Company's equipment store.
While still a member of the police force, Stauber was given a seat on the Hermantown, Minnesota City Council, and eight years later he ran for the St. Louis County Commission. Now he is trying to get to Washington, DC. He knows that the political environment that made this possible was created by Donald Trump.
"The intensity for our president, in my opinion, is as intense, if not more, than the night of the elections," said Stauber. "Because they see results."
Stauber, who is proud of his blue-collar identity – he is a former union leader and calls himself a "pro-union Republican" – supports his support for the local mining industry, the local forestry industry and the local people. companies in general. Trump has been watching Stauber for a while. Recently, at an informal dinner in the suburb of Duluth at Proctor, Stauber said he had received an unexpected call from Trump in March this year. Trump told Stauber that he had heard good things about him and asked him what he could do to help him. A visit to the district would be great, Stauber told the president.
Trump came to Duluth in June for a loud rally. During a walk in the presidential limousine, Stauber spoke of President Barack Obama's environmental rules banning mining in the National Superior Forest, imposed just as Obama was leaving office. Stauber called it "an assault on our way of life". As Stauber said, Trump took out a pen, wrote the sentence and used the idea, if not the exact words, in his speech. And soon after, Obama's ban was canceled. "It was the right thing to do for North Minnesota," said Stauber. "Mining is our past, our present and our future."
And more. "The presidents have talked about ending the dumping of Chinese steel," continued Stauber. "President Trump stopped him … The people of the Iron Channel understand that he has his back turned."
Stauber's full support to the mining industry has put Radinovich, his Democratic opponent, in a bind, trying to express his support for the mining industry but also for federal regulation. When the two men met recently in a debate in the northern city of Chisholm, Stauber congratulated Trump for ending the ban. "I am very proud that we are exploring again," said Stauber.
In response, Radinovich gave a classic answer: me too, but not quite. "First of all, I support mining, and I support the exploration of minerals in the National Forest Superior and elsewhere in that state," he said. "I think any approved project must meet all federal and regional laws before it can be built." Radinovich criticized what he called the politicization of the issue and pledged to "rely on science" to guide his environmental decisions.
In the audience, Radinovich's supporters saw him as a man who stood up against Trump and big business, but faced a heavy task. "On the set, there seemed to be a Trump sign every 50 meters," I told one of them as she remembered the 2016 election. . "He is a referendum on Trump, "said another." Nobody wants to resist him. A third said, "A vote for a Republican is a vote for Trump, period. "
On the morning of debate, Stauber went to the UPM Blandin Paper Company in Grand Rapids. The factory, which produces magazine coated paper, reduced its workforce about a year ago and 150 people lost their jobs. Stauber visited the production workshop, with its giant machines and rolls of paper at different stages of production. What was remarkable on the scene was the limited number of people present – as in any other sector, tasks that previously required teams of workers are now automated. There were only two visible workers on the floor when Stauber passed by, and the real action was controlled in a small glass room, where only one worker was watching eight computer screens that showed everything that was going on. during the day. machines turned a pulp of wood and water into glossy paper.
Subsequently, Stauber and a few people went to logging that feeds the plant – 188,000 acres of aspen, balsam fir and spruce a few miles away. Again, strikingly, it was the few workers needed to operate sophisticated, joystick-controlled, long-cutcutters that could turn a standing tree into a pile of clean logs that were perfectly measured in size. a few seconds. (An operator explained that the most common workplace injuries were carpal tunnel syndrome caused by the joystick, slips and falls to the harvester's cabin.) Loggers expressed frustration with regulations, which would have "blocked" their exploitation. Stauber promised that they would be the experts he would consult to deal with issues related to forest products.
Business, Business, Business. While traveling in the district, Stauber does not hesitate to express support for business, but to link it to a way of life in northern Minnesota. Mining, forestry, fishing – as Stauber says, this is part of a way of life that Stauber supports and that President Trump supports and that Democrats want to change. Trump used this argument to win the 16-point district in 2016. That's what will probably help Stauber to move from the Democratic 8th party to Republican.
New Ulm, Minn.
The 1st District is another extensive territory that stretches along the southern border of Minnesota, from Wisconsin east to South Dakota to the west. It elects both Republicans and Democrats and, for 12 years, is represented by Democrat Tim Walz. Just as the 1st district race was shaped by a retreat, the 8th district was shaped by Walz's decision to leave it. In 2016, Walz had been tight on the call, winning 50.4% of the vote, versus 49.6% for Republican challenger Jim Hagedorn. Only a few months after the 2016 elections, Walz announced that he would not run again in 2018 but would rather head the governor. The seat is open.
Hagedorn grew up on a farm in Truman, Minnesota. His father, Tom, represented the region for eight years in the 1970s and 1980s. Hagedorn himself spent much of his life in Washington. He attended George Mason University and spent 20 years working as an aide to the Capitol and Treasury official. He tried and tried to win the first district seat, losing to Walz in 2014, then again in 2016, and giving him one more shot.
During a conversation at Turner Hall, the German-American emblem of New Ulm, Hagedorn explained, perhaps a little on the defensive, that others – especially Newt Gingrich – also took several attempts to win a seat in the House. His third try will be a success, said Hagedorn, because his campaign has more money than last time; his party is more united than before; his campaign team is better; and Walz is gone, which means that there is no owner advantage.
Hagedorn's Democratic opponent is Dan Feehan, born in St. Paul and raised in Red Wing, but he lived outside the district and Minnesota throughout his adult life. Part of this time consisted of two tours of duty in the US Army in Iraq, followed by a stint under the Obama administration. During his appearances in the countryside, Hagedorn took care to praise the military service of Feehan, while presenting it as a carpet that returned only the first to present itself at the Congress.
Trump won the 15-point district in 2016. Now that Walz is retired, GOP strategists have stated that they would normally see him as an almost certain recovery, with the exception that they have little confidence in Hagedorn. Polls suggest that the race is a run. "Jim has not run a good campaign," said a conservative Minnesota activist. "He took for granted how successful he was last time, Pete Stauber is exciting, Jim is a bureaucrat." Another strategist said categorically: "If you put Pete Stauber in 1st, it would not be a race."
The 1st district is more agricultural than the 8th, and some Trump policies go both ways. Steel tariffs, which received so much praise in the 8th, gave rise to retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products that hit the 1st. But most Republican voters, at least, stay with Trump, convinced that the tariff strategy will lead to a reduction in trade barriers in all areas.
According to Hagedorn, Trump's visit to Rochester in October was a key moment in the campaign. "It was great," recalls Hagedorn. "The energy in the room was electric, it helped center the race."
As Hagedorn explained to the public, the goal of the race that Trump helped clarify is the question of whether the country should take a pronounced left turn and actually return to the time from Barack Obama. "It's a choice between going right or left," Hagedorn said at a small rally in New Ulm. "It's a choice between supporting or not supporting our country, defending everything we believe in, or leaving it to those who want to turn America into a European socialist state."
Much of the Hagedorn campaign, like many other congressional campaigns, consists of walking around in search of voters. It can be door-to-door, neighborhood to neighborhood, or to bars, diners and shops looking for people to talk to. The day after New Ulm's visit, Hagedorn went to the small town of St. James, hoping to catch a crowd of breakfasts at a local diner.
When I arrived, Hagedorn was the only customer of an otherwise deserted restaurant. Do not go. Heading across the street into a café, Hagedorn met two women seated at a table. They said that they had already voted for him. Then, Hagedorn approached the only other person in the store, a man who seemed obviously indifferent to the conversation. When Hagedorn approached, the man complained for a long time about the House of Republicans policy on Obamacare.
Later, I asked the man if health care was the most important issue for him this year. "That, and the idiocy we have under the presidency," he replied.
"Health and Trump?"
Trump, especially. I can not stand the guy. "
Hagedorn joked later about the fact that he had managed to find the local Liberal. But for most voters here, even with health care, and even with the rates, Trump remains popular. Republicans are counting on this popularity, plus a big boost of money and outside support, to finally give Hagedorn a win.
Shakopee, Minnesota
The 2nd district extends from the suburbs of Minneapolis to farmland located south of the metropolitan area. This is part of one of those classic suburban districts in which voters, particularly voters, are deeply opposed to Trump and all those who support him. Part of the district is the kind of rural area where Trump remains strong. Trump won the district in 2016 by a single percentage point.
With the exception of a period of eight years in the 1990s, the second party is represented by Republicans since the 1940s. The current representative is former radio talk show host, Jason Lewis, who narrowly won the seat in 2016 in front of businesswoman Angie Craig. (Lewis won with 47.0% of the vote, versus 45.2% for Craig, while a third party candidate took the rest.) Now, Lewis and Craig are locked out.
During a recent morning, Craig went to the Democratic-Farmer-Labor offices in Shakopee for a rally to get the vote out. People there were sufficiently concerned about politics to volunteer, to go door-to-door, to work on the phone or to represent themselves. When I asked them about Trump and the fact that the race was a referendum on the president, they spoke more about the effects of daily agitation than a simple presidential action.
"When you knock on doors, people are tired of division and tribalism," said one man. Others have complained about the "Trump Game Book" of "negativity", "cranky" and "a particular type of populism, not the old type of populism LaFollette".
"I have never been politically active," said one woman. "For me, Trump has been a catalyst."
A woman with her added, "He is for me also a catalyst – a group of women who are all upset.It is sad for an elected person who manages to violate all your moral principles."
They all expressed the desire of political leaders capable of bringing people together. Perhaps this seems a fuzzy idea, perhaps it seems unachievable, and anyway, he had an unavoidable partisan advantage since it aimed to bring people together under Democratic leaders and non-republicans. But they sincerely believe that unity is possible under the right circumstances.
Even so, even though the people there were expressing their concerns about Trump, the candidates and the political professionals who spoke to the crowd largely moved away from the president. Angie Craig completely avoided Trump. She talked about attending a "Roundtable on Workforce Development" and discussing how we are going to solve the problem of workplace training and job skills, but also solving the problem of affordable housing. access to childcare, early education … "
Ken Martin, president of the DFL, warned against "just running against something or someone". "Quite often, it's the easiest thing for us to talk about Trump and Republicans and how serious they are," said Martin. "We all know it, but you see what most people want, it's an ambitious message, they want a message of hope, they want to feel that their lives will be different and better. must offer it to them in our message. "
In Shakopee, a message of hope relates to the development of the workforce and access to child care. In Grand Rapids, it's about protecting the mining industry from binding regulations. Hope takes different forms in different breeds of houses.
Red Wing, Minn.
Jason Lewis calls his "Results against resistance" campaign. Much of the opposition to Trump, he said in a recent election campaign, is an opposition to the style of the president, not his achievements. "What elites lack, is that people do not want a debate on style," Lewis said. "They want to talk about substance.Whether you think of someone's style, do you think we should have a secure border? Do you think that the law on the reduction and employment of l? tax works? "
Some Republican candidates in the constituencies took a defensive stance, trying to distance themselves from the president. Lewis faced this decision early, and he decided to leave with Trump. "This is the big debate of this cycle for some districts," he said. It's a strategy aimed at independent voters, but Lewis found that it was increasingly urgent to reach every voter in the GOP base. "Nobody motivates them more than the president," he said.
"I always say, would I do things the way the president does them all the time?" No, "added Lewis. "Do I like the general direction and its political decisions? Absolutely. And that's why I'm happy to support it." Lewis mentioned tax cuts, deregulations and judicial appointments. "When you look at politics from a traditionally conservative point of view, you say, what does not like?" he said.
Lewis was hit hard by a New York Times poll, completed a month ago, showing that Craig had a big lead of 51% to 39%. (The poll had a margin of error of five points, which meant that even such an advance was barely out of the margin.) Lewis brought it up in a conversation at the time. One step of the election campaign in Lake City, noting that the "aberrant" poll was "regurgitated". in the rooms of echo. "It's so irresponsible," he said, his own poll showing even the race, Lewis said, "which does not mean we're going to win, but we're tied." Other private polls of the GOP put Lewis about five points behind, making his job difficult but not impossible.In the end, Lewis said that he thought there would be a "Nixonian silent majority" that will be in fashion 2016.
The 2nd district race is not dominated by a single sector or subject, as may sometimes seem to be the case in the 8th district. But Lewis pushed Craig on some of the same topics. One of them is known as the "Enbridge Line 3 Replacement", which refers to an aging oil pipeline, built in the 1960s and now saturated due to its poor condition, whose proposed replacement sparked a lively debate about the environmental impact.
Lewis is in favor of replacing the pipeline as quickly as possible, claiming that it is essential for the large Pine Bend refinery in his district. Craig made waves on the issue, which gave Lewis an opening. "If she wants to continue to put 5,000 people out of work, go ahead," he said. (The Enbridge line is also a factor in the 8th district, where Pete Stauber is strongly in favor of replacement.)
But it is more important that the Lewis campaign, as well as the efforts of Hagedorn and other Republicans, have no particular importance, but rather to go forward than to turn back. It's a game about the old Democratic accusation that Republicans, if they were elected, would "go back" on this or that issue. Now, Republicans have begun to say that the Democrats, if elected, would bring the country back to the old days of Barack Obama.
"They want to go back to diving into socialism that we knew eight years before President Trump," I told a man at the rally of Lewis and other GOP candidates at Red Wing. A few minutes later, Lewis told the crowd that the election of Craig and a Democratic House "would put the whole country in motion." A democratic regime would end "all the progress we have made in restoring the economy and the Constitution, and in all the wonderful appointments made by the President in the lower courts, the courts of appeal and, of course, the Supreme Court of Canada, the United States. "
Minneapolis
The other member of the Republican Congress in danger is the representative Erik Paulsen in the 3rd district. While Lewis's second is acceptable to the Republicans – it contains a rural country backing Trump – the third is this suburban, educated and rich GOP classic nightmare this year. Hillary Clinton won by nine points. To the extent that Donald Trump is a backward wind of candidates like Stauber and Hagedorn, he is a headwind of a candidate like Paulsen. RealClearPolitics says the race leans democrat; Republican strategists are not optimistic.
Finally, there is another race that could be at stake. The giant 7th District, in the northwestern part of the state, is represented by Democratic Representative Collin Peterson for 28 years. He runs this year in a return match against Republican David Hughes, described by some GOP members as decent, but not really impressive and without much money. But Peterson's margins of victory have declined in recent years. He beat Hughes with 52.5% of the vote in 2016, while Trump won the district by 31 points. Some Republican insiders say that they detect a move in Hughes' direction, and RealClearPolitics has called the run run. Peterson has a long and impressive history of running as a Blue Dog Democrat in what should be a Republican District, but there is a possibility that his fortune may change this year.
In each district, it sometimes seems that Trump hides almost everything. Among the women volunteers for Angie Craig who said the president was a "catalyst" to oppose Republicans, conservative voters who want to keep a people's home to protect the president's mining deregulation, Trump is the factor common. As Jason Lewis has suggested, there is the strength of resistance and the strength of the results. The division of electors between these two choices will determine who will control the House for the next chapter of the Trump presidency.
[ad_2]
Source link
