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There are two ways to feel about Utah jazz and they are fundamentally conflictual.
We are confident. Although they received a nasty draw, the Jazz are a threat to make noise in the playoffs. They enter with 50 wins, the league's third highest point differential, behind the Milwaukee Bucks and the Golden State Warriors. They have the NBA's best defense, a softer offensive and all the benefits of good health, prolonged continuity and role acceptance. Strip off a dangerous path that includes a first-round match with the Houston Rockets and a potential second-round series with the Golden State Warriors. Their statistical profile is that of a title contender.
This conviction is based on Donovan Mitchell, 22, who made a significant jump in his second season, especially as a scorer of pick and roll. Only six NBA players have averaged more than 26.7 points per game since the NBA All-Star break. It's interesting to compare Mitchell's sophomore figures with Dwyane Wade's, if only to imagine a world where Utah's best offensive player is able to handle the kind of playoff charge his play suggests. breathtaking dynamism. As the best scorer able to pass MacGyver through broken possessions, Mitchell is the reason why Utah is the third most effective offensive team in the clutch, defined as a five-point game with five minutes or less to go. His 46-point response to Giannis Antetokounmpo's 43-point cannonball is why Utah defeated the Bucks in early March.
He also relies on Rudy Gobert, who earns his second consecutive Defensive Player of the Year award. He is the key ingredient of a formula that allows for the least trios and most mid-distance shots in the league. The press and Jazz switch know that Gobert can clean everything along the bottom line. But like any generation advocate, the French Reject (sorry, not sorry) is also great because it eliminates opportunities before they appear. Look how much space it covers on this piece:
Denver's passing lanes are flooded with a wingspan of 7'9. Each step is timely and accurate. He dances and dares, simplifying one of the most complicated guessing games in the world, until Jamal Murray decides to throw a float.
This dynamic duo led the Jazz to total domination in all areas. Since the break from the stars, Utah has a higher points differential than each team in the league. The Cynics will say that the Jazz also erased everything on their way last year before being overwhelmed by the Rockets in the second round. An optimist can not help but disagree, but they may indicate that Utah's offensive after winning against a star is ranked third this year compared to the 17th in 2017-18. This year's edition has more shots and balls on the ground than last season, and Quin Snyder's decision to give Joe Ingles the keys to his second unit offensive has worked well.
But a closer inspection brings us to the second feeling about Jazz: drowning in doubt.
Remember this succinct adage invented by Draymond Greenwho said he wanted the warriors to acquire "16-game players" instead of "82-game players"? Utah's is the quintessence of the "82 parts" team.
After a busy schedule preventing them from flourishing earlier in the year, they clubbed lesser opponents. Since the break, they beat the Bucks, crushed the Brooklyn Nets and lost to Oklahoma City. Beyond these three games (not counting the final of the season, because no one has played), the Jazz has not faced another team in the playoffs since the victory of February 28 against Denver.
This is of course not their fault. All the jazz did was annihilate all the teams that were on their schedule. For those who believe that beating the opposition really matters, 9.48% of Utah minutes were devoted to enjoying a lead of at least 20 points, a higher score in Milwaukee, Houston, Denver and Toronto. Last year, Utah won at least 20% of its minutes.
But accumulating these glaring numbers against a lower opposition masks the rigidity of the team. Based on the key personnel and his fundamental style (which always refuses to repel the missed shots), the Jazz is not agile enough on both sides to adapt on the fly like any other contender of the modern championship. This is the biggest expression of the NBA in the division between regular season basketball and elimination basketball. And that prepares them for a fatalistic tragedy.
This is not a new development, but Gobert is the embodiment of this dilemma. When the competition warms up, rim protection loses its value against well-prepared teams who jump rope and jump to death. They are not afraid to play small with fencers in all positions, knowing that Gobert can not punish them in a match against two against the other end. (Gobert scored eight points on 11 post-up possessions in last year's playoffs, which is not good.) It's hard to see how a team can go to the bottom of the playoffs in 2019 when their highest paid player can not shoot or create their own shot. Utah's offense is limited in the playoffs with Gobert on the ground. It's just right.
The question is exasperated by the minutes he spent alongside Ricky Rubio, whose outside shot went down to dismal levels. The Jazz can not put the ball in the basket with Rubio, Gobert and Derrick Favors on the field, and as successful as the lines with Crowder replacing Favors have been in the regular season, they have problems if / when the Crowder shot begins pushed further into the spotlight.
Meetings count for all teams and Rockets are bad for almost everyone. But at the end of the day, this team still needs a mini-metamorphosis if they want to do more than dominate the regular season. (An exchange for Mike Conley – as they say before the deadline – would have been a step in the right direction.) Rubio and Favors are free agents this summer, giving GM of Jazz, Dennis Lindsey, a golden opportunity to modernize its alignment with plays that make more sense in the playoffs alongside Mitchell and Gobert.
All is not lost even though Utah is swept away in the first round. In the worst case, it is more likely to be a retarder. But until changes are made and hard truths are accepted, the Jazz will enter each of the playoffs significantly less than they are for the first 82 games.
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