The inflation would accelerate the passage up to 3% after the recomposition of the IPC basket

Between 0.1 and 0.2 tenth would add to the trajectory of inflation in the country 2% per year – the potential changes that the basket used to measure the consumer price index ( CPI) will be between next year and 2024.

This was estimated by BCI Estudios in the analysis VIII Survey of Family Budgets (EPF), which is applied to various households to collect data. information on their expenses and the income they receive in a given period, this time in 2016-2017.

In 2019, the financial institution said, the outlook point to an annual change in inflation of 3%, given the current basket. Based on a recomposition of weights, convergence at this level "could occur early."

In fact, the simulation exercise showed that possible adjustments to the basket weights of the 39; CPI would have generated higher inflation and similar volatility to effective inflation between 2014 and 2017. "So it is predicted that the predictability ability could decline," they say.

A whole scenario, exposes the analysis, which could have implications for projections and the conduct of monetary policy. in a context where prices for services are starting to increase somewhat more strongly.

Developed country?

For BCI Estudios, the EPF 2018 provides for changes in the CPI basket typical of consumer habits. economies with higher per capita income, that is, more weight of services relative to commodities.

In accordance with the foregoing, it is estimated that relative increases would occur in the Restaurants and Hotels – Tourism Package Division, in particular – Health and Communications; while downward adjustments would come from clothing and footwear, education and housekeeping.

There is also room for new products in the IPC basket, since the EPF adds 98 products compared to 2013. Among them, specific products derived from meat and fish, in addition to A wider variety of products in clothing and footwear and new goods and services related to health and transportation.

Electronic products reduce their weighting and the income of some In this context, BCI argues that the exchange rate and its impact on the change in the prices of goods could slightly moderate its importance within the basket, but the difficulty of predicting short-term changes will increase in the price of services. Prices of fruits and vegetables, meanwhile, would show mixed changes in their weightings, while those of gasoline would fall.